Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 The 0z GEM is by far the best run of the winter for northeast IL. Checking hourly output, the surface low gets down to 971 mb on the IN/MI border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 luxurious.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Pretty sweet band of heavy snow west of the low on the GEM. LAF would get in on it too as the low lifts northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 The second storm according to king Euro clocks central IA and and dumps heavily on DDL (ARX). Looks like Cyclone just misses it by about 75 miles or so, possibly closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Euro ensemble mean is west of the op run.. Goes right through IN up to around SBN then to Saginaw or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Surface low is at least 966 mb on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Euro ensemble mean is west of the op run.. Goes right through IN up to around SBN then to Saginaw or so What's the spread like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 0z Euro EPS control is 976mb on the IN/OH/MI border and continue deepening after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 What's the spread like? Still a wide variety on both placement and speed. By 6z Weds, some members are already through central IN while some are back down in AR/MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 afd from Gaylord HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ALL SORTS OF POTENTIAL HAZARDS DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF OUR MIDWEEK SYSTEM. LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS...HEAVIER SNOW...AND VERY STRONG WINDS ARE ALL POSSIBLE DURING THE TUESDAY-CHRISTMAS DAY PERIOD. A CAUTIONARY TALE: DESPITE SOME MEDIA HYPE OF LATE...NO ONE SOLUTION APPEARS FAVORED OVER THE OTHER JUST YET...AND ALL SCENARIOS ARE ON THE TABLE AS FAR AS THIS STORM SYSTEM GOES...INCLUDING AT LEAST THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ALL EYES ARE OF COURSE ON THE EVOLUTION OF OUR CHRISTMAS WEEK STORM SYSTEM...WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ULTIMATED EVOLUTION OF SAID SYSTEM. THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TIED DIRECTLY TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARE STRONG PACIFIC JET AND SHORTWAVE TRAIN ROARING INTO THE LOWER 48 DURING THIS TIME...WITH EVEN FORECAST ANALOGS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME IN PICKING OUT ANY SIMILAR SETUPS OVER THE PAST 35 YEARS (SEE CIPS GUIDANCE WITH VERY LOW CORRELATION SCORES...SOME EVEN NEGATIVE!) ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT THINGS REMAIN CHANGEABLE OVER THE COMING DAYS AND ONE SHOULD COUNT ON CHANGES IN CURRENT FORECAST EXPECTATIONS. THE OVERALL PATTERN SETUP IS AS SUCH: LEAD STRONGER SHORTWAVE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS CURRENTLY WILL GET PLOWED ASHORE SUNDAY NIGHT/ MONDAY AS 180 KNOT PACIFIC JET ROLLS INLAND...LEADING TO RAPID TROUGH AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MID MISS VALLEY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN WILL GET PUNTED INTO THAT DEVELOPING TROUGH COME TUESDAY...HELPING FURTHER AMPLIFY THE MID-CONUS TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY LEADING TO THIS FEATURE TAKING ON A STRONGLY NEGATIVE TILT. OF COURSE...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS TO RESPOND TO SUCH A DRASTIC AND RAPID CHANGE AND IT WILL DO SO BY FIRST INCITING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY BENEATH A CORE OF ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE. THAT SYSTEM WILL FILL AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKES AND ALL FURTHER UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS SOMEWHERE TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OR MID ATLANTIC STATES...IN LINE WITH TREMENDOUS UPPER JET DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER THAT REGION. IN FACT...VERY INTERESTING TO NOTE SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE JANUARY 1978 JET SETUP AND THIS ONE AS MODELED BY THE ECMWF WITH CONTINUITY THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE DIFFERENCE THIS GO AROUND IS A SEVERE LACK OF UPSTREAM COLD AIR BEING SUCKED INTO THIS SYSTEM... SUCH THAT THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL HAVE HUGE RAMIFICATIONS AS TO EXACTLY WHAT SPOTS SEE VARIOUS TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. GIVE THE LACK OF ANY BLOCKING HIGH...DON'T FORESEE ANY FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THREAT WITH THIS SETUP...BUT MORE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME SPOTS (EVEN IN OUR CWA) COULD SEE APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL BY THE TIME CHRISTMAS DAY ARRIVES. A LOOK AT THE DETAILS...WHICH AGAIN ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE COMING DAYS. MONDAY-TUESDAY: PRECIP THREAT ENDS QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS MID LEVELS AND MAYBE EVEN THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT BRIEFLY. HOWEVER... NORTHERN STREAM OCCLUDING LOW LEVEL CYCLONE LOOKS TO LIFT ITS OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE REGION INTO MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH A BRIEF SURGE OF BOTH WARM ADVECTION ASCENT FURTHER ALOFT AND ENHANCED MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE MOST LIKELY DRIVING A BAND OF PRECIP THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKING LIKE A MOSTLY RAIN SCENARIO FOR NORTHERN LOWER NO MATTER YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE...WITH EVEN THE CONSISTENT ECMWF PEGGING A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENT TO MELT SNOWFLAKES OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER. EASTERN UPPER MAY BE MORE OF A SNOW TO RAIN TRANSITION INTO TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROWAL FEATURE ELONGATES NEARBY WHILE THE REALLY DYNAMIC SHOW GETS UNDERWAY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST STATES INTO TUESDAY EVENING. TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: THE PERIOD OF MOST UNCERTAINTY AS WE AWAIT TO SEE THE EVOLUTION OF THE KICKER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT LITTLE FEATURE WILL BE OF KEY INTEREST AS IT WILL DETERMINE THE SPEED AT WHICH OUR MID LEVEL CYCLONE CLOSES OFF...THUS MODULATING THE NORTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE. HARD TO IGNORE THE CONTINUITY OF THE ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GGEM...THOUGH A PEEK AT THEIR VARIOUS ENSEMBLES STILL LOOKS LIKE A DART BOARD PEPPERED WITH NUMEROUS POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW LOCATIONS. ALL TOLD...GUT FEELING IN THIS WHOLE SITUATION IS THAT MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS EVEN A LAKE HURON TRACK WILL WRAP BACK SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR DOWN LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION...WITH SURFACE TEMPS PERHAPS EVEN SURGING WELL INTO THE 40S (MAYBE EVEN A 50 FAR SOUTHEAST?) SHOULD A MORE WESTERN TRACK VERIFY. CHRISTMAS EVE (WEDNESDAY NIGHT)-CHRISTMAS DAY AND INTO FRIDAY: RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE NEARBY (DOESN'T REALLY MATTER EXACTLY WHERE BY THIS POINT) SHOULD WRAP COLD AIR BACK INTO THE REGION QUICKLY...CHANGING PRECIP BACK OVER TO SNOW. ALL THE WHILE... A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT AND QUICK BURST OF COLD ADVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME VERY STRONG WINDS...WITH SOME DOWNRIGHT NASTY TRAVEL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS MORNING. THAT SHOULD WIND DOWN THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH WIND CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. COULD BE A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT INTO FRIDAY THOUGH THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF OUR SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION. HONESTLY NOT THAT WORRIED THAT FAR OUT (PLENTY TO DEAL WITH ALREADY)...THOUGH THE OVERALL TREND DOES APPEAR TO BE FOR COLDER CONDITIONS TO MAKE A RETURN AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE MONTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Euro ensemble mean is west of the op run.. Goes right through IN up to around SBN then to Saginaw or so Decent snow I'm guessing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 6z NAM looks like it will want to cut up through IL possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 wagons west folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I think the punt signal is pretty loud for the eastern MI signal. Frankly it's got that cold rain stank all over it here as well. There just isn't enough cold air for the spread the wealth kind of defo and given the 850 picture, the best snows will end up well to my N and W. RFD to Moneyman is where you want to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 wagons west folks No brainer. As mentioned many times, a near bomb usually means actual track ends up left of early iterations. Not a prolific snow maker anyway, dependent on backlash, but I always knew that I would see predominantly rain with some wind whipped flurries/showers at the end. Good luck to those who end up cold enough for snow and also those who end up in wind warning areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 No brainer. As mentioned many times, a near bomb usually means actual track ends up left of early iterations. Not a prolific snow maker anyway, dependent on backlash, but I always knew that I would see predominantly rain with some wind whipped flurries/showers at the end. Good luck to those who end up cold enough for snow and also those who end up in wind warning areas. IMO this is going to trend towards a stronger, more expansive defo band as the trend towards quicker cyclogenesis of the southern low continues. The 6z GEFS ensembles continue to support the recent trends. This type intensity/qpf jump with relative agreement is noteworthy. Lots of solid hits, many more decent defo bands, and red flags for rain all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 yep, this one is over for the ohio crowd, not that it was ever looking that good to begin with but with such a forecasted dynamic system in the neighborhood, some kind of interesting weather might have been realized. Now it looks like lots of rain, seasonable cold front passage and mood flakes late xmas eve. Goodluck to those in a better position. Seriously hope someone in our subforum gets hit with this, shame to waste such an awesome trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Its always been about the wraparound from the beginning, imo. Just have to hope a nice area of deform snow will develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I think the punt signal is pretty loud for the eastern MI signal. Frankly it's got that cold rain stank all over it here as well. There just isn't enough cold air for the spread the wealth kind of defo and given the 850 picture, the best snows will end up well to my N and W. RFD to Moneyman is where you want to be. Pretty bold call this far out on all rain here. Certainly can't rule it out that it cuts over us but don't know if I'd call the 6z GEFS a clear trend and a favorable track for a flip to wind whipped heavy wet snow remains on the table. But do agree this sort of negatively tilted trough lends to a farther west track than some of the initial guidance was suggesting. Should be another interesting day of model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Pretty bold call this far out on all rain here. Certainly can't rule it out that it cuts over us but don't know if I'd call the 6z GEFS a clear trend and a favorable track for a flip to wind whipped heavy wet snow remains on the table. But do agree this sort of negatively tilted trough lends to a farther west track than some of the initial guidance was suggesting. Should be another interesting day of model watching. I'm not taking it to the bank or anything but this one checks a couple key rain boxes, notably a garbage antecedent airmass, probability of a massive warm tongue associated with the strongly negatively tilted trough, and sloppy look at 850. On the plus side, good things can happen when a low undergoing rapid deepening cuts NNE just to your east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I'm not taking it to the bank or anything but this one checks a couple key rain boxes, notably a garbage antecedent airmass, probability of a massive warm tongue associated with the strongly negatively tilted trough, and sloppy look at 850. On the plus side, good things can happen when a low undergoing rapid deepening cuts NNE just to your east. Agreed with those thoughts. Due to the bad antecedent airmass it's gonna have to take a good track for here. Even the 06z OP GFS cuts it close with what would typically be a pretty good track for Chicago, with a good demonstration of the warm tongue you alluded to at H85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Agreed with those thoughts. Due to the bad antecedent airmass it's gonna have to take a good track for here. Even the 06z OP GFS cuts it close with what would typically be a pretty good track for Chicago, with a good demonstration of the warm tongue you alluded to at H85. Mississippi to Michigan City…a classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Agreed with those thoughts. Due to the bad antecedent airmass it's gonna have to take a good track for here. Even the 06z OP GFS cuts it close with what would typically be a pretty good track for Chicago, with a good demonstration of the warm tongue you alluded to at H85. Too many unknowns as to how much snow those west of the L get, but do you agree the wraparound signal is pretty strong for many? It would be interesting to see heavy snow falling in northern Ohio while heavy rain is falling in the UP of MI, but that certainly seems to be a possibility as well. Unusual storm all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Too many unknowns as to how much snow those west of the L get, but do you agree the wraparound signal is pretty strong for many? It would be interesting to see heavy snow falling in northern Ohio while heavy rain is falling in the UP of MI, but that certainly seems to be a possibility as well. Unusual storm all around. Wraparound can be pretty finicky and often produces less than expected, but the strength of the occluding ULL does lend to a decent potential for at least some accumulations. There's a good signal for large scale lift (mid-upper Q vector divergence) on the southwest flank of the ULL. The intense deformation axis is going to do most of the work in this setup. Seeing huge frontogenesis and omega values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Mississippi to Michigan City…a classic If it tracks to MI City, that'll likely be rain in Chicago during the meat of the deformation axis, but there would probably be a flip to snow and some accumulation potential in the lingering wraparound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 This thing will be over Fargo by the time this gets here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 This thing will be over Fargo by the time this gets here... 8° at 850? Better go get my shorts back out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I woke up and hopped out of bed like I had a Christmas gift to unwrap. weather is disturbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Getting close to punt time this far east. Would be shocked if the EURO doesn't come west a bit. Its a piss tank! Then we can enjoy some flurries and cold winds on Christmas. How amusing. To make matters worse, the GFS killed off the second storm advertised on earlier runs so it seems like were going to end December on a silent note, expect for the surprise snowstorm on Dec 11. I will be in Kitchener on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Judging by the latest Euro, I have a reasonable chance of seeing accumulating snow on Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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