cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Ends up tracking through western MI, and waits to strengthen significantly until well into MI. Narrow area of respectable snows from northeast IL up through eastern WI through 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Through 108 hours, surface low track looks pretty similar to 18z. Sure looked like it could go big after the 81 and 84 frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Through 108 hours, surface low track looks pretty similar to 18z. Looks wetter on the "cold" side west of the sfc low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 PGFS pretty similar to the track of the 27km GFS, although a bit weaker. Sort of looks like it may be underdoing the cold sector precip with a fairly convective looking area of precip near the surface low. Pressure gets down to 980mb by the time it reaches easter Superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Definitely a turn for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Can you explain that map, Geos? I don't really understand the colors vs. the key on the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Model surface temps look borderline on the GFS (and other models too), which could add some difficulty for accumulation forecasts. I gotta think there will be enough cooling to trend temps down toward freezing and that it won't hurt amounts to a great degree but it's something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Can you explain that map, Geos? I don't really understand the colors vs. the key on the right. I chopped off part of the scale - that's why your thrown off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Getting close to punt time this far east. Would be shocked if the EURO doesn't come west a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Uncle Ukie in the envelope....nothing crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Getting close to punt time this far east. Would be shocked if the EURO doesn't come west a bit. Its a piss tank! Then we can enjoy some flurries and cold winds on Christmas. How amusing. To make matters worse, the GFS killed off the second storm advertised on earlier runs so it seems like were going to end December on a silent note, expect for the surprise snowstorm on Dec 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Its a piss tank! Then we can enjoy some flurries and cold winds on Christmas. How amusing. To make matters worse, the GFS killed off the second storm advertised on earlier runs so it seems like were going to end December on a silent note, expect for the surprise snowstorm on Dec 11. Seriously, don't complain. You'll garner little sympathy. And verbatim the 2nd storm looks a bit better. Has been nudging back to the south. Maybe an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 GGEM on sabbatical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 This trough is looking like an empty suit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 GGEM finally running. Hour 96 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Getting close to punt time this far east. Would be shocked if the EURO doesn't come west a bit. Still another 24 hours before we get some better RAOB data so can't totally punt. But this EURO run could be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 ~970 mb in central MI at 120 hours on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Exciting, needless to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Euro coming in a little stronger with the sfc low at 72hrs across western TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Euro looks like it's coming west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Exciting, needless to say. You know its an interesting setup when no one has even made a DAB call yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Euro looKS to have the low basically in the same spot as the last 2 runs passing just east then north of here at 120hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Deformation band on the EURO lays across NE IN and western MI. Marginal temps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Euro looKS to have the low basically in the same spot as the last 2 runs passing just east then north of here at 120hr Yeah it started west down south but ended up close to the same spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 The 0z GEM is by far the best run of the winter for northeast IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Yeah it started west down south but ended up close to the same spot. Yeah by the time it got to KY it was pretty close to same track. Maybe a hair left but not by much. Also a bit weaker this run compared to last 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Next system seemed a bit quicker out west on this run. Perhaps why the Euro didn't end up farther west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 The 0z GEM is by far the best run of the winter for northeast IL.Looks like a >12" bullseye just west of downtown, eyeballing max amounts somewhere at 15".So the games continue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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