Stebo Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 FWIW, I clicked around the other sectors valid same time and the scores seemed about what you'd normally see. Something about the MV sector that threw it I guess. Those scores aren't really that good though either, I checked as well and I don't think I saw one over 12 when the max score is 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Well the fact that the CIPS analogs aren't finding anything close to what the GFS is showing means we haven't seen a system too similar to this in the analog time period. I don't know how far back the analog period goes on the CIPS but one listed is 1979. So you are looking at 35 years without a storm too similar to the one forecasted by the GFS. Just taking a stab in the dark my guess is that the analogs go back to 1979, because I think if they went further back the blizzard of 78 would probably be up near the top of the list in similarities, not to say they are the same but there are some similarities. thx stebo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 thx stebo Not a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Well the fact that the CIPS analogs aren't finding anything close to what the GFS is showing means we haven't seen a system too similar to this in the analog time period. I don't know how far back the analog period goes on the CIPS but one listed is 1979. So you are looking at 35 years without a storm too similar to the one forecasted by the GFS. Just taking a stab in the dark my guess is that the analogs go back to 1979, because I think if they went further back the blizzard of 78 would probably be up near the top of the list in similarities, not to say they are the same but there are some similarities. Yeah it only goes back to 1979. I'd be interested to see if the blizzard of 78 would've made the CIPS list and where it would've ranked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 After all of this time, I just noticed Joe's subtitle, "FreeBowMe" lol. I don't know what he did to get banned, but Saukville and him sure have been put on Exile Island. No matter the outcome, this is a fun, if frustrating, event to track, especially with all of the varied predictions the models are spewing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 haha, midlo did some cleaning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 haha, midlo did some cleaning Midlo would like bowme though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Anyone who has been around a while knows that it's not that easy to get banned from here. You have to do something really bad or show enough of a pattern of causing problems. If you get banned, you have nobody but yourself to blame. Enough of that. Let's get back on track with discussing the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Bowme posted too much while sauced. He shouldn't have strayed from the sub. Hoosier should have enough pull to get bowme back to being able to post in our sub at least Ok hoosier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 might be the first night all week i'm awake for 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 might be the first night all week i'm awake for 0z Yeah I don't know if any of the NCEP products will come in though which means you will be out before you see anything of merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Yeah I don't know if any of the NCEP products will come in though which means you will be out before you see anything of merit. they have been fine all day for me on the MAG site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 they have been fine all day for me on the MAG site Yeah I guess the outage won't take effect until after 00z runs then, as I see the LOLNAM is coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 man with a wild setup like this, you know the NAM is going to have some wild runs in store Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 man with a wild setup like this, you know the NAM is going to have some wild runs in store Stronger/weaker: a NAM run showing 965mb in the USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Stronger/weaker: a NAM run showing 965mb in the USA. weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 NAM struggled with the big system late last month and took a while to catch on to a stronger southern stream wave so no guarantees we see a massive bomb right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 One thing different about this setup from the January 1978 blizzard is the huge difference in 850-700mb temps. -22C at 850mb and -26C at 700mb in the central plains were poised to take over the system, at 00z on January 26 1978. That -22C (ish) air wrapped into the storm and went to the Tennessee Valley in 12 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 NAM is a bit colder than the GFS so far but you can see the WAA starting to creep up. The question in mind is the secondary Low. Lets see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 The 00z NAM at 84hr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 One thing different about this setup from the January 1978 blizzard is the huge difference in 850-700mb temps. -22C at 850mb and -26C at 700mb in the central plains were poised to take over the system, at 00z on January 26 1978. That -22C (ish) air wrapped into the storm and went to the Tennessee Valley in 12 hours! 19780126_00z_850_plot.gif For sure. Not nearly the same amount of cold air available. Instead of a wind whipped powdery blizzard, whatever falls with this one is most likely going to be wet/dense. If you look at the surface maps, jets, etc. leading up to Jan 1978 and this one, you can definitely see some similarities. The 12z ECMWF 500 mb map is almost freakishly reminiscent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Geesh. The NAM isn't wasting any time. It's precip happy with the southern low and already looking like it would be a good storm from the looks of it in the srn plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 For sure. Not nearly the same amount of cold air available. Instead of a wind whipped powdery blizzard, whatever falls with this one is most likely going to be wet/dense. If you look at the surface maps, jets, etc. leading up to Jan 1978 and this one, you can definitely see some similarities. The 12z ECMWF 500 mb map is almost freakishly reminiscent. those are amazingly similar, as are some of the other maps you posted in the last few days. My question is about the storm on the heels of this one....was there anything on the heels of the '78 storm?. I think that's one thing that is complicating the xmas bomb....would you agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Geesh. The NAM isn't wasting any time. It's precip happy with the southern low and already looking like it would be a good storm from the looks of it in the srn plains. The trough is still digging too at that point if you loop the 500mb maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 those are amazingly similar, as are some of the other maps you posted in the last few days. My question is about the storm on the heels of this one....was there anything on the heels of the '78 storm?. I think that's one thing that is complicating the xmas bomb....would you agree? Pretty sure there wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 NAM would probably have a Parallel GFS-esque solution based on the 84hr map posted earlier. Not that extrapolating it would matter of coure. I'm just bored... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Hello?! Canadian friends? GTA peeps? Can you say blizzard? I know that word is forbidden here, but that's what it shows. Yes I can say it, that's what I crave. The fact that the Euro has shown this 2 times in a row with the control run from 00z being the tops for MBY, as opposed to the GFS makes me extremely happy and excited. Yeah, I understand. I'm thinking less about the amount of snow and more about the combination of snow and wind. For anyone who has never been in a TRUE blizzard, trust me, it's something you'll never forget. Exactly, I saw my first true blizz conditions this January and its just wild. Its the best winter offers but I think that's a no brainer. I'll never forget it. 964mb bomb near Owen Sound,On at 144. Wow. Getting close to being over my head but on the maps it shows it being on Huron, its wasn't right on OS right? There are two paths that would be the best IMBY, one that the Euro Control from 12z/17 showed where its just north of me on Lake Huron (with 956 mb) and the other was from 00z/19 that slides along the 401 corridor (959 mb). Unplug the GFS and leave it powered off. Amen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Just for kicks: 18z CRAS brings the low through Chicago at 06z, Christmas Day morning. 850mb temps would permit accumulating snow along the IA/IL border. Directory, for fans of the NAVGEM/DGEX and other primarily-useless models: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras90_NA/18/model_l.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 00z GFS looks like it's developing the secondary already by 81hrs over southwest AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 00z GFS looks like it's developing the secondary already by 81hrs over southwest AR. Through 108 hours, surface low track looks pretty similar to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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