Whitelakeroy Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I think this is the Euro's snowiest run yet Oh ... if only I could lock that run in!!! 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Looks like that could support at least some snow, particularly at YXU and areas to the west of YYZ. Would like to see lower surface temps at YYZ for better snow chances. If flow stays more W/WNW it prevents significant down sloping and probably means OP models are underestimating QPF E of Lk Huron via squalls/fast moving LE banding as inversion heights look high behind the low. If the flow backs more then its a different story... it will all come down to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Euro text for YXU and YYZ. Agree that LL lapse rates look too gradual at this point. YYZ ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z DEC19 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 12Z 23-DEC 1.1 -0.1 1016 91 88 0.00 552 539 TUE 18Z 23-DEC 3.9 2.2 1013 95 94 0.04 553 543 WED 00Z 24-DEC 4.3 3.5 1011 93 47 0.00 554 545 WED 06Z 24-DEC 4.2 5.9 1006 96 88 0.02 553 548 WED 12Z 24-DEC 4.9 6.6 998 96 90 0.09 550 551 WED 18Z 24-DEC 7.2 6.4 986 96 99 0.31 542 554 THU 00Z 25-DEC 6.3 4.4 977 91 97 0.57 529 548 THU 06Z 25-DEC 2.2 -3.9 977 93 84 0.12 514 533 THU 12Z 25-DEC 1.8 -4.3 976 93 98 0.13 513 533 THU 18Z 25-DEC 2.1 -5.5 982 83 98 0.20 518 533 FRI 00Z 26-DEC 1.5 -7.0 995 80 94 0.08 527 531 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YXU LAT= 43.03 LON= -81.15 ELE= 912 YXU 12Z DEC19 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 12Z 23-DEC 1.4 1.4 1014 93 93 0.02 551 540 TUE 18Z 23-DEC 5.0 2.9 1010 92 70 0.03 552 544 WED 00Z 24-DEC 5.3 4.1 1008 94 57 0.02 553 547 WED 06Z 24-DEC 5.1 6.1 1002 95 92 0.07 551 549 WED 12Z 24-DEC 6.7 6.5 994 96 95 0.16 547 551 WED 18Z 24-DEC 9.3 6.3 981 93 96 0.39 537 553 THU 00Z 25-DEC 1.6 -1.2 976 99 58 0.33 523 542 THU 06Z 25-DEC 0.9 -4.0 976 97 100 0.16 512 532 THU 12Z 25-DEC 0.9 -4.7 978 94 99 0.33 515 533 THU 18Z 25-DEC 0.9 -6.2 987 85 96 0.29 522 532 FRI 00Z 26-DEC 0.6 -7.6 999 72 60 0.08 531 532 Looks like QPF was beefed up with the wrap-around but temps are concerning. Would be nice to pull the storm east a touch, but considering the EURO is already on the eastern side of guidance, that may be asking for too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Numerical Model Prediction 2pm EDT December 19: NOAA is experiencing a large data outage that is affecting all American models including the GFS, NAM, GEFS, and GEPS. The ECMWF should plot fine. I will update as things change. The network mess caused some of my 12z CMC data to become corrupted. Some plots did not finish for 12z. Tropical tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 ggem spins the low over n. MI and wraps moisture around it hitting IL, IN, and OH pretty good. More of the ensembles are beginning to get more bullish on wrap around, (granted that's always an iffy way to get snow at best). If the low is strong enough and slow enough, with that kind of neg tilt in the trough, it's totally possible to wrap in a conveyor belt from the atlantic. Still lots to sort out....regardless, I still think the sweet spot for this will be in MI somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Numerical Model Prediction 2pm EDT December 19: NOAA is experiencing a large data outage that is affecting all American models including the GFS, NAM, GEFS, and GEPS. The ECMWF should plot fine. I will update as things change. The network mess caused some of my 12z CMC data to become corrupted. Some plots did not finish for 12z. Tropical tidbits. Just pure speculation, wonder if it was a cyber attack, and if the attackers know just how bad the American models can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 If it were an attack, they'd take down the Euro, not the GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Not sure. But that's funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Sounds like the problems will continue and the 18z GFS might never be available. Flying blindly. Time for our best guesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 If it were an attack, they'd take down the Euro, not the GFS and NAM. You would think, but if you were a North Korean hacker I am sure you would assume the American suites were the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Sounds like the problems will continue and the 18z GFS might never be available. Flying blindly. Time for our best guesses. Perhaps the janitor tripped over the power cord to the GFS supercomputer. ha ha ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Unplug the GFS and leave it powered off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 You would think, but if you were a North Korean hacker I am sure you would assume the American suites were the best.If I were a member of glorious leader Kim Jong Un's elite, shadowy cyberwarfare commando corps intent on disrupting the best model suite I am sure I would do the onerous legwork of googling it, knowing that my unswerving antlike communist dedication to Great Juche Thought would protect me from the cascade of imperialist propaganda and misinformation I'd encounter in the process Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Unplug the GFS and leave it powered off. Agree. The paralegic GFS might be better, but it's still anywhere from the 3rd to 5th best global model depending on the scenaro. For significant weather, it still gets occasionally outdone by the NOGAPS. Not to needlessly gripe or anything, but we are hardly flying blind if we lose the GFS data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 In the event that the gfs can no longer fulfill it's duties, it's time to dust off the vice prez of mods.... the experimental FIM ,(aka Hoosier's Favorite) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Agree. The paralegic GFS might be better, but it's still anywhere from the 3rd to 5th best global model depending on the scenaro. For significant weather, it still gets occasionally outdone by the NOGAPS. Not to needlessly gripe or anything, but we are hardly flying blind if we lose the GFS data. I know, my sarcasm regarding the GFS got lost in transmission. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 In the event that the gfs can no longer fulfill it's duties, it's time to dust off the vice prez of mods.... the experimental FIM ,(aka Hoosier's Favorite) Anything and everything is fair game for a looksy with a storm on the way...heck I might even check the CRAS at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 12z ECMWF EPS control run takes the SLP up into C. PA and then east of YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 speaking of special needs models. I was browsing over the team and the dgex might win the award for goofiest solution. It closes off the upper low over Alabama and then send the closed low and primary to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 12z ECMWF EPS control run takes the SLP up into C. PA and then east of YYZ. How deep? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Perhaps the janitor tripped over the power cord to the GFS supercomputer laptop. ha ha ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 How deep? Sub-966mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 12z ECMWF EPS control run takes the SLP up into C. PA and then east of YYZ. Sub-966mb. Well that should excite the Southern Ontario crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 EC EPS control is out of bounds for YYZ... an absolutely perfect track. The ENS mean still has a huge spread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 With this appearance on the 12z Euro ensemble mean, I'm guessing there's quite a bit of spread amongst the individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Trough axis doesn't support anything east of the apps. The nams high resolution runs already are poo pooing that idea. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Unless there are big changes, I agree with the thoughts that this will go west of the Apps. A coastal track won't happen with a trough taking on a negative tilt over the Mississippi Valley. Although the EPS control sounds dreamy for snow prospects in the eastern Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Trough axis doesn't support anything east of the apps. The nams high resolution runs already are poo pooing that idea. If it digs far enough south then a southern solution would become more likely imo. I don't know whether it turns into an east coast storm, I'd say more like eastern lakes storm in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Anything and everything is fair game for a looksy with a storm on the way...heck I might even check the CRAS at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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