Stebo Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 986 at the OH/WV/KY border junction at 120hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Euro waits longer than the GEM/PGFS to get the secondary going, and hence a further east evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Given this jet structure I'd think the sfc low would be a little more tucked in and further west to where it is at this timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Bombs away 976mb near Cleveland at 126hr. 10mb drop in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 964mb bomb near Owen Sound,On at 144. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 In between graphics aren't out yet but 144 it is over southern Georgian Bay at 964mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 At 126 most of MI still all rain as most of the snow is following the low center at that point. Very small area of meaningful snowfall, with widespread snow showers/flurries extending well to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Euro waits longer than the GEM/PGFS to get the secondary going, and hence a further east evolution. i'm fine splitting the difference at this point but i'm starting to feel like west is the way to go the euro is another super lame bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yeah this is another run like last night with several inches of snow for Lower Michigan with near blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Verbatim a kickass run for most of MI, parts of OH/IN and up into Canada. Elsewhere light snow with a ton of wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 At 126 most of MI still all rain as most of the snow is following the low center at that point. Very small area of meaningful snowfall, with widespread snow showers/flurries extending well to the west. WxBell showing a 6-10" swath by 138hr south to north in MI but take that with a grain of salt I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 i'm fine splitting the difference at this point but i'm starting to feel like west is the way to go the euro is another super lame bomb GEM snow totals with one of the further west solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 i'm fine splitting the difference at this point but i'm starting to feel like west is the way to go the euro is another super lame bomb Yeah totally super lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 WxBell showing a 6-10" swath by 138hr south to north in MI but take that with a grain of salt I guess. Always take those with caution but at least in this case, it looks like basically a rain to snow scenario so little if any contamination from sleet or zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Always take those with caution but at least in this case, it looks like basically a rain to snow scenario so little if any contamination from sleet or zr. Yeah, conversely though it is still trying to paint surface temps 32-34 which could be holding down totals especially since the 850 temps at the time are -4 to -7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Euro would be a very high-end blizzard for much of MI and areas further east towards Toronto. Extremely impressive run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yeah, conversely though it is still trying to paint surface temps 32-34 which could be holding down totals especially since the 850 temps at the time are -4 to -7. I think this is the Euro's snowiest run yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I think this is the Euro's snowiest run yet ecmwf_tsnow_michigan_28.png Yeah and that is with goofy surface temperatures. If in actuality we are closer to 32 like I would expect in this situation then it could even be a hair more. That being said it is pretty spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 And then you have strong WAA starting in association with the next strong system almost immediately after this one moves out. Quite a series of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 And then you have strong WAA starting in association with the next strong system almost immediately after this one moves out. Quite a series of events. from ripping NW flow in wake of a blizzard just to the east to hardcore WAA and a torch in two days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 So the last few runs we have the PGFS insisting on a further west secondary, and the Euro insisting on a bomb moving up towards Huron. Sort of the two main camps at this point. 27km GFS looks sort of bizarre compared to the other guidance, with a weak primary moving towards Superior. Seems a little out of character with such a dynamic environment to work with. GEM seems to split the middle between the Euro/PGFS. Ultimately it's gonna come down to the timing of the secondary evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Euro text for YXU and YYZ. Agree that LL lapse rates look too gradual at this point. YYZ ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z DEC19 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 12Z 23-DEC 1.1 -0.1 1016 91 88 0.00 552 539 TUE 18Z 23-DEC 3.9 2.2 1013 95 94 0.04 553 543 WED 00Z 24-DEC 4.3 3.5 1011 93 47 0.00 554 545 WED 06Z 24-DEC 4.2 5.9 1006 96 88 0.02 553 548 WED 12Z 24-DEC 4.9 6.6 998 96 90 0.09 550 551 WED 18Z 24-DEC 7.2 6.4 986 96 99 0.31 542 554 THU 00Z 25-DEC 6.3 4.4 977 91 97 0.57 529 548 THU 06Z 25-DEC 2.2 -3.9 977 93 84 0.12 514 533 THU 12Z 25-DEC 1.8 -4.3 976 93 98 0.13 513 533 THU 18Z 25-DEC 2.1 -5.5 982 83 98 0.20 518 533 FRI 00Z 26-DEC 1.5 -7.0 995 80 94 0.08 527 531 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YXU LAT= 43.03 LON= -81.15 ELE= 912 YXU 12Z DEC19 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 12Z 23-DEC 1.4 1.4 1014 93 93 0.02 551 540 TUE 18Z 23-DEC 5.0 2.9 1010 92 70 0.03 552 544 WED 00Z 24-DEC 5.3 4.1 1008 94 57 0.02 553 547 WED 06Z 24-DEC 5.1 6.1 1002 95 92 0.07 551 549 WED 12Z 24-DEC 6.7 6.5 994 96 95 0.16 547 551 WED 18Z 24-DEC 9.3 6.3 981 93 96 0.39 537 553 THU 00Z 25-DEC 1.6 -1.2 976 99 58 0.33 523 542 THU 06Z 25-DEC 0.9 -4.0 976 97 100 0.16 512 532 THU 12Z 25-DEC 0.9 -4.7 978 94 99 0.33 515 533 THU 18Z 25-DEC 0.9 -6.2 987 85 96 0.29 522 532 FRI 00Z 26-DEC 0.6 -7.6 999 72 60 0.08 531 532 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 from ripping NW flow in wake of a blizzard just to the east to hardcore WAA and a torch in two days Second system on the Euro is south of the 0z run but still on the northern side. Sfc low in the low to mid 990's runs from Topeka to DBQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Euro text for YXU and YYZ. YYZ ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z DEC19 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 12Z 23-DEC 1.1 -0.1 1016 91 88 0.00 552 539 TUE 18Z 23-DEC 3.9 2.2 1013 95 94 0.04 553 543 WED 00Z 24-DEC 4.3 3.5 1011 93 47 0.00 554 545 WED 06Z 24-DEC 4.2 5.9 1006 96 88 0.02 553 548 WED 12Z 24-DEC 4.9 6.6 998 96 90 0.09 550 551 WED 18Z 24-DEC 7.2 6.4 986 96 99 0.31 542 554 THU 00Z 25-DEC 6.3 4.4 977 91 97 0.57 529 548 THU 06Z 25-DEC 2.2 -3.9 977 93 84 0.12 514 533 THU 12Z 25-DEC 1.8 -4.3 976 93 98 0.13 513 533 THU 18Z 25-DEC 2.1 -5.5 982 83 98 0.20 518 533 FRI 00Z 26-DEC 1.5 -7.0 995 80 94 0.08 527 531 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YXU LAT= 43.03 LON= -81.15 ELE= 912 YXU 12Z DEC19 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 12Z 23-DEC 1.4 1.4 1014 93 93 0.02 551 540 TUE 18Z 23-DEC 5.0 2.9 1010 92 70 0.03 552 544 WED 00Z 24-DEC 5.3 4.1 1008 94 57 0.02 553 547 WED 06Z 24-DEC 5.1 6.1 1002 95 92 0.07 551 549 WED 12Z 24-DEC 6.7 6.5 994 96 95 0.16 547 551 WED 18Z 24-DEC 9.3 6.3 981 93 96 0.39 537 553 THU 00Z 25-DEC 1.6 -1.2 976 99 58 0.33 523 542 THU 06Z 25-DEC 0.9 -4.0 976 97 100 0.16 512 532 THU 12Z 25-DEC 0.9 -4.7 978 94 99 0.33 515 533 THU 18Z 25-DEC 0.9 -6.2 987 85 96 0.29 522 532 FRI 00Z 26-DEC 0.6 -7.6 999 72 60 0.08 531 532 Could you post DTW's. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Could you post DTW's. Thanks Unfortunately I only have access to a few of the canadian airport codes. Maybe someone else has DTW available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Unfortunately I only have access to a few of the canadian airport codes. Maybe someone else has DTW available. Thanks, no problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 diagnostics.... MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD145 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 VALID DEC 19/1200 UTC THRU DEC 23/0000 UTC ...AN EVALUATION OF THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG WITH FINALPREFERENCES/FORECAST CONFIDENCE... THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 12ZNAM/GFS DEEMED SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT THEIR FORECASTS. ...SHORTWAVE MIGRATING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERNPLAINS THROUGH 21/0000Z... FINAL PREFERENCE: NON-12Z NAM MODEL COMPROMISE FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE A PRONOUNCED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFICNORTHWEST TODAY BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MIDDAYSATURDAY. THE 12Z NAM RESIDES NORTH OF THE STRONGER CONSENSUS THEVORTICITY CENTERS MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS ON 21/0600Z.OVERALL...THERE ARE PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH THE OTHERGUIDANCE BUT FEEL SOME SORT OF COMPROMISE WILL WORK AMONG THEOTHER SOLUTIONS EXCLUDING THE 12Z NAM. ...DEEP UPPER TROF ANCHORING THE CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE SUNDAY......AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EASTERNSEABOARD...RESPECTIVELY... FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE FLOW BECOMES MUCHMORE AMPLIFIED IN NATURE. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ABOVEAN EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION WHICH WILLCARVE OUT A PRONOUNCED CENTRAL U.S. TROF. THERE ARE A MYRIAD OFSOLUTIONS OUT THERE WITH THE 12Z CMC BEING MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVEWHILE THE 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET ARE STRONGER ALOFT. THE TREND IN THE540-DM SPAGHETTI PLOTS IS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER WHICH RULES OUTTHE QUICKER 12Z CMC SOLUTION. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO OFFER AMORE MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION WHICH IS NOT AS DEEP AS THE NCEPGUIDANCE AND IS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z CMC. ONLY LIMITED CHANGES WERENOTED IN THE LATEST ECMWF WHICH BODES A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE INITS SOLUTION. WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS PREFERENCE WHILEINCORPORATING THE 12Z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yeah this is another run like last night with several inches of snow for Lower Michigan with near blizzard conditions. I can live with the 12z EURO's solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Euro text for YXU and YYZ. Agree that LL lapse rates look too gradual at this point. Looks like that could support at least some snow, particularly at YXU and areas to the west of YYZ. Would like to see lower surface temps at YYZ for better snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yeah totally super lame "Check Please" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.