snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 old EDIT: ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 decent hit for a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 12z GEM with +SN into western KY with heavy rain into Chicago, wraps up fast and early looks like it passes over Tim's place Going to fun to watch this sort itself out. Much more optimistic today then yesterday. Either way, this should end the seasonal uneventful weather so far this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 decent hit for a few Looks similar to the PGFS to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 To me it seems like its all about the wraparound. If we can get lake contribution with this killer, rare wraparound potential, could be quite snowy. Im seeing a big, but brief, slug of rain with the main L, regardless of track. A general rule of backside snow, based on my observation, is if a deformation band is progged, it will overperform, if its just run-of-the-mill "wraparound", dont bank on much. But this storm is no ordinary storm, so I am liking wraparound potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Going to fun to watch this sort itself out. Much more optimistic today then yesterday. Either way, this should end the seasonal uneventful weather so far this month. yeah, dynamic system. Kind of feel like a rain and a miss west is more likely than a bomb off to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 It'll be interesting to see if the Euro starts coming west as most of the other guidance is west right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 NCEP problems causing slow issues on several sites it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 UK looks very GGEM-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 With the way is storm is modeled now, it looks like you won't have to be terribly far west of the surface low track to get into the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Uncle Ukie stays in the 12Z envelope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 NCEP problems causing slow issues on several sites it seems. Saw this on the GR site. NOAA planning some downtime for most of tomorrow for certain branches. Not sure how this will impact the models. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/pns14power-outage.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 decent hit for a few While that would suck for many that would be great here. Not a lot of room for error though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 GGEM has the 500 mb low east of Indy at 120 hours. That's something different than we've seen on a lot of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The key with the 12z GFS is that it is maintaining the sharpness and favorable orientation for strong secondary cyclogenesis. It is just having a terrible time resolving the surface low forming but the 500mb pattern is very favorable. I think this is pretty on point. If i had to guess and given the strength of the pac jet, i think we'll see a trend towards deeper troughing over the central US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I think this is pretty on point. If i had to guess and given the strength of the pac jet, i think we'll see a trend towards deeper troughing over the central US. The key is how far the first piece can get east, that sets up the location of the trough axis and then the 2nd piece swings underneath it. It will be a while before the models get a true handle on where that first piece sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 12z GEFS with a couple nice hits, lots of turds, and not a lot of bombs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 12z GEFS with a couple nice hits, lots of turds, and not a lot of bombs The are fully out? Only to 36hr on Ewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The are fully out? Only to 36hr on Ewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 ^That's dated the 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The fact that there aren't many bombs with the GFS Ensembles is also good news for the second storm potentially developing into something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The fact that there aren't many bombs with the GFS Ensembles is also good news for the second storm potentially developing into something. rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 ^That's dated the 18th. That's what I thought. NCEP causing the ensembles to come out slow too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 my bad Occasionally when there's data glitches, the images will update but still have the wrong date. Hopefully that's not the case here as it would just add confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 That's what I thought. NCEP causing the ensembles to come out slow too the date looks off but that maps look like today's run whatever, it doesn't matter either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 euro going to lay an egg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 euro going to lay an egg? 1002 secondary developing in TN at 102. Looks like it could go big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 euro going to lay an egg? Nah looks on par with last night probably end up in the same location too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 euro going to lay an egg? Doesn't look like it but will still be on the eastern side of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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