A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 rain for Bo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 At 120, big time phase with closed H5 low over Marquette. Secondary beginning to develop as primary occludes. Secondary looks pretty anemic compared to the last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 purely in our backyard, I'm not sure what to root for. The 12z GFS is a piss tank lol. We would need atleast a 200 mile shift to the East to get any snow from this. Surface temps are too warm and we can't get any CAA to work in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The 12z GFS is a piss tank lol. We would need atleast a 200 mile shift to the East to get any snow from this. Surface temps are too warm and we can't get any CAA to work in. Christmas eve -SHSN/flurries and gusty winds look like a lock. Could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Odd that only the NCEP site is showing the GFS. Someone must have tripped over a cord somewhere, as other model sites still only showing 06z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 12z GFS says what secondary low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 At least someone has access to the 12z GFS. Can't access on several other sites. Not updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I say keep pushing that trough west. I've been sitting on the outside looking in, but now I'm slightly more interested. Torch run for many if that happens though. So I won't root too hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 rain for Bo? that possibility been mentioned in the forecast here for a couple days now. I'll worry about rain tho when there's more of consensus. This thing is all over the place still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 PGFS brings a nice swath of snow from Arkansas up through IL through 114hrs, with the low near South Bend. EDIT: PGFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 With 5 days to go, the current 12z op and parallel GFS should be seen as two of the possible solutions in the envelope of guidance. Until the rest of the 12z operational and ensembles guidance comes in, can't really read too much into them and even then, still a ways to go until there's better consistency. It's fun to track each run and the swings in the models but it's just gonna be tough for a consensus to form until there's full RAOB sampling. With such huge variance, the best we can say is that it's clear at this point there's going to be a strong storm somewehere over the GL region on Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 PGFS brings a nice swath of snow from Arkansas up through IL through 114hrs, with the low near South Bend. sounds relatively consistent with the previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 sounds relatively consistent with the previous run Yep. Ends up around 976mb near Green Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yep. Ends up around 976mb near Green Bay. one for the not nearly as good as it looks file Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 PGFS brings a nice swath of snow from Arkansas up through IL through 114hrs, with the low near South Bend. EDIT: PGFS not the best for mby....but certainly looks like a bad arse set up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 12z GFS says what secondary low? Kind of an open wave on the EC but that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 So the PGFS retrograded NNW? Toss it imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 So the PGFS retrograded NNW? Toss it imo. why, looks totally reasonable hard lefts happen all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Wisconsin and the UP would do real good with the PGFS solution. Would see heavier snows down in IL/western IN if cold sector precip takes off faster than what this solution shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 With 5 days to go, the current 12z op and parallel GFS should be seen as two of the possible solutions in the envelope of guidance. Until the rest of the 12z operational and ensembles guidance comes in, can't really read too much into them and even then, still a ways to go until there's better consistency. It's fun to track each run and the swings in the models but it's just gonna be tough for a consensus to form until there's full RAOB sampling. With such huge variance, the best we can say is that it's clear at this point there's going to be a strong storm somewehere over the GL region on Christmas Eve. Agreed, the energy is still way out in the Pacific and models don't have it coming ashore until around 00Z Monday, so certainly not a good idea to be invested in any one solution until then in terms of track. Although I think in terms of thermals we can be somewhat confident on a lack of widespread snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Agreed, the energy is still way out in the Pacific and models don't have it coming ashore until around 00Z Monday, so certainly not a good idea to be invested in any one solution until then in terms of track. Although I think in terms of thermals we can be somewhat confident on a lack of widespread snows. Yeah I was looping the H3 jet from the 00z Euro earlier, and it's pretty wild. So much energy coming in with that powerhouse jet. Can definitely see why the guidance is kind of like wtf do I do with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 WPC not painting a horrible picture for those wanting to see flakes fly (at the least) for the holidays... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1059 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014VALID 12Z MON DEC 22 2014 - 12Z FRI DEC 26 2014...AN ACTIVE HOLIDAY WEATHER PATTERN......SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PCPN FOCUSING LEAD SURFACELOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL US BY EARLY NEXT WEEKAS EMBEDDED IMPUSLES DIG TO THE LEE OF AN AMPLIFIED ERN PACIFICRIDGE ALOFT. THE SUPPORTING AND INCREASINGLY NEG-TILT TROUGH ALOFTWORKS OVER THE ERN US AND OUT THROUGH THE NERN STATES INTO DAYS5/6 WED/THU. SUSPECT A THREAT EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED WINTER WEATHERIN LEAD FLOW OVER A COOLED NRN NEW ENG AIRMASS TUE WITH LOWINDUCED WRAP-AROUND SNOWS SPREADING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ANDGREAT LAKE STATES/MIDWEST LINGERING PAST TUE/WED THAT WORK MORE INERNEST OUT THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MAINLY INTERIOR NRNMID-ATLANTIC/NERN US ON CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 12z GFS says what secondary low? The key with the 12z GFS is that it is maintaining the sharpness and favorable orientation for strong secondary cyclogenesis. It is just having a terrible time resolving the surface low forming but the 500mb pattern is very favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The 12z GFS is a piss tank lol. We would need atleast a 200 mile shift to the East to get any snow from this. Surface temps are too warm and we can't get any CAA to work in. Christmas eve -SHSN/flurries and gusty winds look like a lock. Could be worse. At the moment, I think our best hope is for a light dusting and some mood flakes on Christmas Day. Looks like the winds may be fairly intense, as per the Euro at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The key with the 12z GFS is that it is maintaining the sharpness and favorable orientation for strong secondary cyclogenesis. It is just having a terrible time resolving the surface low forming but the 500mb pattern is very favorable. Yeah, I'm sure many of the ensembles will still be blowing up the secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 12z GEFS way East. Not even one member as far west as the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 12z GEFS way East. Not even one member as far west as the operational. f162.gif Yesterday's. Ewall site not updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 old EDIT: ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yesterday's. Ewall site not updating. NCEP really sh** the bed... my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 12z GEM with +SN into western KY with heavy rain into Chicago, wraps up fast and early looks like it passes over Tim's place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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