stormtrackertf Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Had to post this just for posterity sake: Might have to fire up the generator for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Throw all the solutions into a blender over the last several days and I couldn't understand how Michigan wouldn't be the big winner with this one. Seeing the euro finally show it, makes sense to me. Too bad there wasn't any true arctic air in the neighborhood or this would have been one hell of a share the wealth storm....instead it's all about being in the right spot when the cold air rushes in, before the precip exits....Michigan is in the best area for that. I'm riding the euro for one simple reason. It had the bomb, lost it, and brought it back. The euro isn't perfect but no way it looses it again. Now it's just details of track, strength and surface features....will be fun watching the other models start to congeal into a solution. Either way, an interesting xmas in the lakes and OV. Selfishly I am hoping you are correct. Looks like the wind may be the bigger deal with this one than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Time to go get some extra gas for the generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 YYZ geographically in a nice spot for comma-head snows on the 0z EURO once the storm starts to wrap up, but we get downsloped like crazy with those strong WNW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 YYZ geographically in a nice spot for comma-head snows on the 0z EURO once the storm starts to wrap up, but we get downsloped like crazy with those strong WNW winds. Yeah, I understand. I'm thinking less about the amount of snow and more about the combination of snow and wind. For anyone who has never been in a TRUE blizzard, trust me, it's something you'll never forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yeah, I understand. I'm thinking less about the amount of snow and more about the combination of snow and wind. For anyone who has never been in a TRUE blizzard, trust me, it's something you'll never forget. Another thing about blizzards. Most of the time true blizzard conditions in a storm will ebb and flow. For instance you will get 20 minutes of blizzard criteria, followed by an hour lull, back and forth like that. Most of the blizzard warning events I've been thru since '78 fell into that type of situation. The '78 blizzard was relentless, there must have been 12 hours straight of relentless winds....the roar lasted all day, when it was done it was done. I think that is another aspect that makes that blizzard so unique/severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 looking at the ensemble spreads this morning just doesn't give much confidence...not only in final low position but all kinds of different routes to get there. nice to see big dogs in the group still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Time to go get some extra gas for the generator. I'm in a bad spot for power outages. If someone passes gas in my neighborhood the power goes out. I guess that's what u get for living in the boonies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I'm in a bad spot for power outages. If someone passes gas in my neighborhood the power goes out. I guess that's what u get for living in the boonies. Not much better here in the city. I lost power for significant periods of time 4 times this year I think, but that's probably because the city's power grid is slowly crumbling because it's ancient. Can't ever remember losing power for more than an hour or two before like the past decade or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The euro has a 65kts sting jet max at 850mb during/after occlusion with good mixing. Heavy wrap around snows move from S Mi through N OH and through S On. That's a recipe for blizzard like conditions if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I gotta say, regardless of what happens in mby, i'm pulling hard for explosive cyclogenesis with this one. The zzzzzing must stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Not much better here in the city. I lost power for significant periods of time 4 times this year I think, but that's probably because the city's power grid is slowly crumbling because it's ancient. Can't ever remember losing power for more than an hour or two before like the past decade or so. That's probably part of the reason. It would it nice if we could get Detroit Edison to invest in underground wiring for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 For anyone to answer, what are the snowfall amounts like on the 00z EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I'm in a bad spot for power outages. If someone passes gas in my neighborhood the power goes out. I guess that's what u get for living in the boonies. I wouldn't trade it one bit!!! I actually used to lose power a lot more when I was in White Lake. Oddly my current much more remote but has been much better power wise (knock on wood). A storm like some of the models are showing it would only be wise to have a bunch of gas ready!!! Last pre-Christmas ice storm I was without power for 6-7 hours but my neighbors across the street out for 5 days (they are on a different line). Not much better here in the city. I lost power for significant periods of time 4 times this year I think, but that's probably because the city's power grid is slowly crumbling because it's ancient. Can't ever remember losing power for more than an hour or two before like the past decade or so. They don't want to bury the lines as it would reduce OT during storms. The workers make good $$$ with every major storm that hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 6z GEFS with an increasing number of members who are aggressive with early takeover and cyclogenesis by the southern low. It's pretty important if you are looking for decent cold sector qpf (especially further west) and it is reflecting nicely in the mean. The 6z pGFS seems to support what the 6z GEFS are selling as well. 0z 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 They don't want to bury the lines as it would reduce OT during storms. The workers make good $$$ with every major storm that hits.Well besides that, it would be very expensive for the initial burying of the lines itself.In the wake of the auto industry's collapse, I don't think Michigan's taxpayers would be too thrilled about funding the project, even if it does lead to long-term cost savings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Well besides that, it would be a very expensive for the initial burying of the wiring itself. In the wake of the auto industry's collapse, I don't think Michigan's taxpayers would be too thrilled about funding the project, even if it does lead to long-term cost savings... isn't there another thread about Detroit's collapse on the internet you guys can take this to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 6Z PGFS kept the bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 isn't there another thread about Detroit's collapse on the internet you guys can take this to?IMO, it's a bit unrealistic to not expect occasional off-topic posts in a thread, which in this case stemmed from the probability of power outages with this system. It wasn't like several pages of completely unrelated and continuous post.But in any event, hopefully the 12z runs continue the trend from the 00z runs with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I like the fact that the southern low is now trending to be the main player, but once again this illustrates how hard it has been to buy a nice storm in the last few years, if it's not one thing it's another. No 8"+ storm imby since GHD (I forgot the total for the late February 2013 storm though, so that might be the exception). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 So it seems the Par-GFS is the farthest west among guidance. The 6z occludes the low over Northern Lake Michigan at 969mb. Would be a good track for the western Lakes. Otherwise at this time I'd favor the central and northern Lakes for any appreciable snow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Speaking of power outages: I moved over the summer (not far, only a 1/2 mile east of my last place) however, in the old neighborhood, power outages were rare, with the exception of the two we had in June and July of 2011. The grid we were on included a large retirement/nursing home complex, so whenever power went out, we were switched to a new grid, and lights were back on in less than 2 minutes. The neighborhood I live in now is on no such grid, so, power outages happen, to quote one neighbor "all of the time whenever there is a storm" . The variations of the position of the low I am finding interesting. For now, the forecast give us rain, possibly some wind, and some snow showers on the back end. The track I saw this morning, takes the low over or, just north of Chicago, which will definitely bring us rain, as temps will be above freezing, as it stands now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I am excited by the parallel GFS consistently showing a deep low cutting into the Great Lakes. If this ends up being the verifying solution, it is a great sign that the new GFS is a vast improvement over the old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 At hour 90 on the 12z GFS western ridge is further back and upper low is closed off much further South. Looks like its going to be a more phased solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 At hour 90 on the 12z GFS western ridge is further back and upper low is closed off much further South. Looks like its going to be a more phased solution. purely in our backyard, I'm not sure what to root for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 trough axis continued to shift slightly west on the GFS 6z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 purely in our backyard, I'm not sure what to root for. Same here. I'd personally rather the low bomb out west of us so we can at least cash in on some backend squalls/wind combo. If it ends up further east like yesterdays runs then we would need perfect placement of the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 warm sector also quite broad compared to the previous op run with a weaker northern 850. 6z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 torch run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 At 120, big time phase with closed H5 low over Marquette. Secondary beginning to develop as primary occludes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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