Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Yeah I agree completely...it definitely has the appeal of starting as winter precip. I'm just confused how my posts got interpreted as I'm worried about someone stealing my snow or worried about the pattern, haha. It looked messy on the 12z runs, that's all, no more no less lol. Based on my own experience,recognition of previous similar patterns this looks like a big CNE NNE winter storm with front running SNE snow to ice rain. Going to be fun watching this slam into that low level cold. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Yeah I agree completely...it definitely has the appeal of starting as winter precip. I'm just confused how my posts got interpreted as I'm worried about someone stealing my snow or worried about the pattern, haha. It looked messy on the 12z runs, that's all, no more no less lol. It could very well end up a messy one no doub't, But this far out you really can't take anything off the table, Lot of cold in Canada poised to move into here in that time frame, Models struggle with the cold air mass until we get closer to the event, So a more winter like system is well in the cards i think more so then a rainer, Time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Based on my own experience,recognition of previous similar patterns this looks like a big CNE NNE winter storm with front running SNE snow to ice rain. Going to be fun watching this slam into that low level cold. JMHO Yeah we'll have to see where the high is and just exactly when it gets ejected from the SW. It's got good potential, with both options on the table. The lack of blocking and the SE ridge flex will make for a very interesting gradient in this pattern, as the -EPO tries to keep putting low level cold into the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I stated that after the first 10 days or so there could be a relaxation not that the pattern change was "NOW" up in the air. I also stated that period would be AOB normal. After that a modification was possible. If you don't consider that to be a fair statement so be it. This is what you wrote: Yeah but without a major pattern shift which appears up in the air at best (no pun intended} i would tend to side with an above normal call. You state the pattern shift is up in the air at best, and side with above normal for the month (I understand now that you agree the first part may be below normal). But in your original statement you made no mention of below normal or modification/relaxation. I was simply pointing out that heights are changing over Alaska in such a way that is favorable for cold across the northern tier: which isn't really up in the air and I did not state that relaxation will not occur at some point after this ten day period. Since I took exception to the original comment, you've made it known you believe the first part of the month could be below normal and are unsure about the rest. That's fine in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 .... ..... ................ ... .... ...... .... snow ..... ... ... ............ . ......... ....... ..... .snow/ice ... .... ...... ..... cold.... ............. ... .. ...... .... ..... .. ... ..... ...... ..... ...... ... ..... ... incredible winters for the next 50 years .... .. ..... ...... .... .... . ... .... ....brutal cold ... ... . .... ... ... ... windex event... ...... .... .... .... .... .... snow...... I enjoyed this. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a weenie filter than redacts some posts on here to omit all but the keywords for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 No snow = no pattern change to quite a few here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Yeah, No snow..........lol, Some need to get out of the house more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I am out of the house. I'm really enjoying the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Dude, you are so utterly full of ...made up out of the either bs, one does not know where to begin. Firstly, there's no locking onto anything; it's talking factually about where we have been and what the modeling consensus/teleconnectors argue we are going... A philosophy that for some reason always evades you. I just got done talking about the icing event on the GGEM - Noone should be talking about any event the GGEm shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Huh? When have I been down on the pattern coming up haha? It's a cold pattern. But it can still cut with no blocking if we want to talk about options. I don't see the big deal. I merely made a post about the day 7 threat, which will and can change, but the 12z GGEM/ECM/GFS have that as a messy system. I don't know how that gets translated into I'm worried about someone stealing my snow? For the first time we agree. It's going to be one of those messy wintry mix deals..like 3-6 then ice and maybe closer to the coast ends as drizzle or something..and noone warms until the west wind pre CAA push. I guess it just seemed some today are thinking the Euro and Euro end idea of rain to the border was going to happen. Amping systems up when the pattern doesn't support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Yeah, No snow..........lol, Some need to get out of the house more Banana hammocks riding on the back of the sleds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Deep, deep grass. . Someone's local webcam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Banana hammocks riding on the back of the sleds? lol, If you don't mind low 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 lol, If you don't mind low 30's. Mid 50s here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 lol, Who cares at hr 180, This will flop around for the next several days, With all the cold air in canada and the models under playing it i would not be surprised if this ends up going under us SWFE style like 2007-2008 That event is toast...the system takes too long to eject so the high pressure is gone from the East Coast and there is no new airmass coming out of Canada...it may waiver around a bit but that event is going to be rain almost everywhere...its likely going to end up less amped than the current GFS shows...the Euro may be correct with a slightly flatter idea. For the first time in ions today though the Euro does not show something else forming in the SW at Day 9 or 10, I believe we will finally get rid of the SE ridge around Day 12 or so...the pattern may temporarily break down for a bit thereafter but I think there may be a more favorable chance for a snow event 1/8 to 1/15 because the SE ridge getting shoved away will mean systems will be less likely to cut. After 1/15 I think we transition into a freezer and largely stay there the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I don't remember it ever being this ugly for Nova Scotia still no snow to shovel. I'm in Dartmouth now, no snow to be found.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Se ridge means bussiness...trying to explain this to ginxy yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Agreed!! I think part of the misconstruing is actually the fault of these users that ...don't do enough of other activities beyond this thing. lol. Most if not all users on this board (myself included) are very active in the winter, spring, summer and fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I love the irony. The weather many times seems to have a sense of irony to it. How many times has a great season/set up been predicted, and it just fails to deliver anything of consequence. And that's nobody's fault ofcourse. Things look promising, but things just don't line up for the area. Happens alot. Seems to be happening now. Now, please don't take this as a "Winter Cancel Deal" at all. The pattern is going to change, but like the knowledgeable on here said, it doesn't necessarily mean snow. I agree with Tip, the correction vector is for LESS so far this year. I think that idea for the next couple weeks is a good one. I think people calling for us to go into a cold and snowy period are playing with fire at the moment. Colder than now, for sure. How cold, is a big question mark imo. And there is no way anybody can tell how snowy a stretch of weather can be. Lots of winter left for sure...11 weeks and 1 day to be exact. Lots can happen and will. So far though, nothing has fallen into place for SNE at this early vantage point. Sure hope we flip it around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I think the 3rd-4th storm has legs...not to mention the third is my birthday, and more often than not, something comes through on my birthday. Although I agree the high may retreat east and ptype issues could be there, at least in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I am not surprised at not having snow on the ground in my hood, records from Storrs since 1888 say I have 53% chance of having 1 inch on the ground today. Climo is a b**ch Snow Depth Maximum Average Minimum Percent of Years >=1 inch >=3 inches >=6 inches >=12 inches 16 1.3 0 30% 14% 8% 1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I am not surprised at not having snow on the ground in my hood, records from Storrs since 1888 say I have 53% chance of having 1 inch on the ground today. Climo is a b**ch Snow Depth Maximum Average Minimum Percent of Years >=1 inch >=3 inches >=6 inches >=12 inches 16 1.3 0 30% 14% 8% 1% Now if come my birthday I am bare ground, 80% yea thats unusual but not unheard of. Patience Grasshoppers Snow Depth Maximum Average Minimum Percent of Years >=1 inch >=3 inches >=6 inches >=12 inches 25 2.9 0 44% 26% 18% 8% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Se ridge means bussiness...trying to explain this to ginxy yesterday you parroted maps a fifth grader could read, we will see. I do agree NYC is toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I am not surprised at not having snow on the ground in my hood, records from Storrs since 1888 say I have 53% chance of having 1 inch on the ground today. Climo is a b**ch Snow Depth Maximum Average Minimum Percent of Years >=1 inch >=3 inches >=6 inches >=12 inches 16 1.3 0 30% 14% 8% 1% . Some people just don't get it Steve. It is was it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 lol. Most if not all users on this board (myself included) are very active in the winter, spring, summer and fall. I know, Tip thinks up some weird convoluted crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I myself am a winterwx buff, love all weather but tracking winter weather is enjoyable and easier, because during summer, there is solo much more taking up time, back to topic, I've had flu for days, so no model looking, what's the word on the pre new years event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 . Some people just don't get it Steve. It is was it is. LOL I watched Absolute zero today and was thinking, some of these peeps actually think they live in the arctic in winter. I just took a look back at the 04/05 season, one forgettable snow event in late Dec then torchaliciuos until that 43 inch number of Jan, things have a way of coming around. the pattern( heck with Eduggs) is flipping for US, details will emerge. stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 LOL I watched Absolute zero today and was thinking, some of these peeps actually think they live in the arctic in winter. I just took a look back at the 04/05 season, one forgettable snow event in late Dec then torchaliciuos until that 43 inch number of Jan, things have a way of coming around. the pattern( heck with Eduggs) is flipping for US, details will emerge. stay tuned.. Last I checked, winter just started a week ago. 90+ days for all before we can start thinking about the next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 lol. Most if not all users on this board (myself included) are very active in the winter, spring, summer and fall. Seem like some get out in it. Its there for the taking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Back into the 30s (38.4attm) High of 45.5 Low of 25.1 Off to have a very enjoyable meal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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