Ending out December with a Potential Pattern Change

[SnoSki14]

EURO is ugly on the 4th of Jan. Back to a rainer for all.

This winter is really challenging 2011-2012 for worst winter ever so far. December is probably one of the ugliest winter months I can remember with a ton of rain (many from coastals), a horrendous Grinch storm, and almost zero snow plus a +3 departure. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

So now we're tossing a third of the month because it may not lock in through St. Patrick's Day.

It really is pointless to come in here and discuss anything.

If it isn't cold, no snow on the ground, and no storm to track, this place is brutal.

[eduggs]

I think the first ten days of the month look below normal. Then after that who knows.

January is actually a bad month to use for the background warming trend because it hasn't warmed going back over 100 years. The bookend months of winter are the ones that have warmed. Also, we have 30 year moving averages every ten years so the long term warming trend is muted by that.

In short, I'd hedge colder for January given the information we have.

But will that actually pan out?  Jan 1st is still 5 days out.  I've seen plenty of cases where it looked below normal in the long range that didn't turn out that way.  The early month probably will turn out BN, but I would not be comfortable at this point predicting a BN month with any certainty.

 

I haven't looked at very many stations, but NYC has warmed in January over its historical record and also 100 years.  It could be that this particular month in the northeast has not warmed as much as other months (I don't know), but I don't see a physical reason why it should not have.

 

The long term warming trend is muted, but it's still there.

[Juliancolton]

A 43 mph gust and a few minutes of thundersnow in February will make the indiscriminate weenies forget they even suffered through this most futile of months.

[eduggs]

He doesn't agree that the month will start below normal. I think it will through the 10th or so.

I didn't say that.  I think it will.  But I'm not as confident as you, because I don't fully trust the long range guidance and I think local or regional scale features can have an unexpectedly large influence.

 

Overall I think people on here express more certainty in the 10-14 day forecast than is warranted.  I know it's usually given with caveats and in a probabilistic manner, but I still think reality is more uncertain than the consensus forecast.

[OceanStWx]

If it isn't cold, no snow on the ground, and no storm to track, this place is brutal.

 

I'm about to meltdown about the meltdowns.

 

"Worst. Winter. Ever." when we still have at worst like 75 days left to accumulate snow. Predictably laughable.

[weathafella]

Well at any rate a classic DSD today.

[mahk_webstah]

Hang in there....and remember where you live and forecast for. It ain't sne

I'm about to meltdown about the meltdowns.

"Worst. Winter. Ever." when we still have at worst like 75 days left to accumulate snow. Predictably laughable.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I'm about to meltdown about the meltdowns.

"Worst. Winter. Ever." when we still have at worst like 75 days left to accumulate snow. Predictably laughable.

I feel bad for you professionals that take the time to come in here to give your thoughts and it falls on deaf ears.

[powderfreak]

I'm about to meltdown about the meltdowns.

"Worst. Winter. Ever." when we still have at worst like 75 days left to accumulate snow. Predictably laughable.

Haha...the seasonal forecasts had everyone thinking epic wire to wire.

[jamesnichols89]

Did anyone see the 850mb jet on the EURO, southwesterly winds of up to 85-95 knots.  Amazing.

[scoob40]

So now we're tossing a third of the month because it may not lock in through St. Patrick's Day.

 

It really is pointless to come in here and discuss anything.

 

No one's "tossing" anything. I stated the first 10 days look below normal. After that there appears to be a "relaxation". Whether or not that verifies is subject to debate. Christ post anything in this joint that doesn't adhere to the party line of snow and cold and you're branded.

[dryslot]

EURO is ugly on the 4th of Jan. Back to a rainer for all.

 

lol, Who cares at hr 180, This will flop around for the next several days, With all the cold air in canada and the models under playing it i would not be surprised if this ends up going under us SWFE style like 2007-2008

[OceanStWx]

No one's "tossing" anything. I stated the first 10 days look below normal. After that there appears to be a "relaxation". Whether or not that verifies is subject to debate. Christ post anything in this joint that doesn't adhere to the party line of snow and cold and you're branded.

 

Trust me I care very little about snow and cold narratives on this message board. The point was that the pattern change being discussed was towards ridging returning to AK, allowing cold to return to the northern tier. You stated the pattern change was now up in the air, which for nearly the first two weeks of January it appears to be fairly consistent across various ensembles. 

 

Beyond that you can cry relaxation just as much as another person can declare models break down blocking too quickly.

 

[OceanStWx]

lol, Who cares at hr 180, This will flop around for the next several days, With all the cold air in canada and the models under playing it i would not be surprised if this ends up going under us SWFE style like 2007-2008

 

The question there is when does the main shortwave eject from the SW. Euro swings a little piece of vorticity around the backside of the upper low and delays a good 18-24 hours before ejecting. Wouldn't be the first time the Euro is too slow in that area of the country.

 

But details a long way out, too early to sweat that.

[leo1000]

I don't remember it ever being this ugly for Nova Scotia still no snow to shovel.

[dryslot]

The question there is when does the main shortwave eject from the SW. Euro swings a little piece of vorticity around the backside of the upper low and delays a good 18-24 hours before ejecting. Wouldn't be the first time the Euro is too slow in that area of the country.

 

But details a long way out, too early to sweat that.

 

Yeah, It likes to hang back energy in the SW so we are seeing these flip flop solutions, Several days to go to iron it out so getting invested to one solution or the other is just fodder right now on these op runs

[Damage In Tolland]

Have folks not learned? Remember when the 30th was supposed to be a messy storm and cut..lol? It's now a couple clouds scooting out south of us. This isn't an amped up cutting pattern we're entering..This will be a swfe event that will drop snow for all and then probably go to ice/drizzle as it ends with a cold tuck in E Ma. If you think that solution on the Euro is correct..then please leave the board

[powderfreak]

lol, Who cares at hr 180, This will flop around for the next several days, With all the cold air in canada and the models under playing it i would not be surprised if this ends up going under us SWFE style like 2007-2008

Hopefully you are right...last nights 00z ECM run was the first Euro or GFS run to bring that south of us over the last 3 days. It's in la la land but there's definitely some support for a cutter there. The chance for change is there, I just feel that one could be messy for us.

[powderfreak]

Have folks not learned? Remember when the 30th was supposed to be a messy storm and cut..lol? It's now a couple clouds scooting out south of us. This isn't an amped up cutting pattern we're entering..This will be a swfe event that will drop snow for all and then probably go to ice/drizzle as it ends with a cold tuck in E Ma. If you think that solution on the Euro is correct..then please leave the board

You haven't learned have you, lol. There's a pretty stout SE ridge, so with no blocking we always run the risk of a cutting system if a strong shortwave comes out at the wrong time.

There's actually decent agreement on the 12z runs in that time frame of some potential ugliness between GFS/ECM. I'm not saying it with any emotional meltdown stuff...I just think you haven't learned if you write off the chance of that one cutting.

[Ginx snewx]

Awesome watching Absolute Zero the movie about-273 in Miami due to polar flip then reading the meltdowns in here.

Euro IMHO bias holds energy back too long. Para look maybe too suppressed but more of what I was thinking yesterday

[Damage In Tolland]

You haven't learned have you, lol.

You ,Ray, Tip totally locking in the Euro and acting like warmth. dews and rains are etched in stone. Really this place has just completely lost it. This is what happens when people start forecasting epic winter in August

[powderfreak]

You ,Ray, Tip totally locking in the Euro and acting like warmth. dews and rains are etched in stone. Really this place has just completely lost it. This is what happens when people start forecasting epic winter in August

What? Why has this place lost it? It's a weather board and we are talking weather like adults. No one is freaking out over it. It's an option on the table. I even said it's got plenty of time to change. If anything you are the one locking stuff in.

We can tell you are getting close to losing it lol.

[scoob40]

Trust me I care very little about snow and cold narratives on this message board. The point was that the pattern change being discussed was towards ridging returning to AK, allowing cold to return to the northern tier. You stated the pattern change was now up in the air, which for nearly the first two weeks of January it appears to be fairly consistent across various ensembles. 

 

Beyond that you can cry relaxation just as much as another person can declare models break down blocking too quickly.days or so there could be a relaxation

I stated that after the first 10 days or so there could be a relaxation not that the pattern change was "NOW" up in the air. I also stated that period would be AOB normal. After that a modification was possible. If you don't consider that to be a fair statement so be it.

[Damage In Tolland]

What? Why has this place lost it? It's a weather board and we are talking weather like adults. No one is freaking out over it. It's an option on the table. I even said it's got plenty of time to change. If anything you are the one locking stuff in.

We can tell you are getting close to losing it lol.

Dude..you've had quite a bit of snow season to date..you have a nice snow pack..and we're entering a cold, snowy pattern regime over the next 3-6 weeks..noone is going to steal or take your snow away. JC

[Typhoon Tip]

You ,Ray, Tip totally locking in the Euro and acting like warmth. dews and rains are etched in stone. Really this place has just completely lost it. This is what happens when people start forecasting epic winter in August

 

Dude, you are so utterly full of ...made up out of the either bs, one does not know where to begin.

 

Firstly, there's no locking onto anything; it's talking factually about where we have been and what the modeling consensus/teleconnectors argue we are going...   A philosophy that for some reason always evades you. 

 

I just got done talking about the icing event on the GGEM - 

[powderfreak]

Dude..you've had quite a bit of snow season to date..you have a nice snow pack..and we're entering a cold, snowy pattern regime over the next 3-6 weeks..noone is going to steal or take your snow away. JC

Huh? When have I been down on the pattern coming up haha? It's a cold pattern. But it can still cut with no blocking if we want to talk about options. I don't see the big deal.

I merely made a post about the day 7 threat, which will and can change, but the 12z GGEM/ECM/GFS have that as a messy system. I don't know how that gets translated into I'm worried about someone stealing my snow?

[Typhoon Tip]

Trust me I care very little about snow and cold narratives on this message board. The point was that the pattern change being discussed was towards ridging returning to AK, allowing cold to return to the northern tier. You stated the pattern change was now up in the air, which for nearly the first two weeks of January it appears to be fairly consistent across various ensembles. 

 

Beyond that you can cry relaxation just as much as another person can declare models break down blocking too quickly.

 

 

Agreed!!  

 

I think part of the misconstruing is actually the fault of these users that ...don't do enough of other activities beyond this thing. Anyway, if one risks mentioning pattern change ...anything beyond that is somehow filtered through the following screen:

 

.... ..... ................ ...  ....   ......  .... snow ..... ...  ...  ............ . ......... .......   ..... .snow/ice ... .... ...... ..... cold.... ............. ...  .. ...... ....  ..... .. ... .....  ...... ..... ...... ... ..... ... incredible winters for the next 50 years .... .. ..... ...... .... .... . ... .... ....brutal cold ... ... .  .... ... ... ... windex event... ...... .... .... ....  .... .... snow...... 

 

Like I mused yesterday (and quite understandably it elicited 0 replies...)   the pattern changed alright -- right into a pattern that ... based upon the tenor of users, most likely won't sit well.  It's actually kind of amusing to watch these people torture them selves for not being more objective about the "field" of weather, and less mood-guided by the vagaries of something they can't control. 

 

I think this forum really has become a bit of a bastion for that mentality to collect within.  Buuut, whatever.  I guess there are bigger fish to fry in world where more is unfair -

[dryslot]

Hopefully you are right...last nights 00z ECM run was the first Euro or GFS run to bring that south of us over the last 3 days. It's in la la land but there's definitely some support for a cutter there. The chance for change is there, I just feel that one could be messy for us.

 

The ensembles on the Euro has the boundary near or just to the south, So it has some support for something SWFE'ish, And possibly some ice for some in the interior with that cold HP to the north

[powderfreak]

The ensembles on the Euro has the boundary near or just to the south, So it has some support for something SWFE'ish, And possibly some ice for some in the interior with that cold HP to the north

Yeah I agree completely...it definitely has the appeal of starting as winter precip.

I'm just confused how my posts got interpreted as I'm worried about someone stealing my snow or worried about the pattern, haha. It looked messy on the 12z runs, that's all, no more no less lol.