Ending out December with a Potential Pattern Change

[weathafella]

Will is also deterministic btw

Still thinking snow free NYD

Yeah it's like we can't help ourselves. Probably can be more confident of NYD now but as many have said impulses sometimes sneak up on us. We should at least have some cold so it could happen that we end up with snow cover.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

there's probably a better than 50% chance that we end the month above normal.

Now you're just guessing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't see what all of the controversy is about.....I mean, is it much of a revelation that seasons that pitch a shutout in one of the met winter months are statistically favored to finish below normal?? It is what it is.

[OceanStWx]

We don't really know what kind of period we're entering.  Looks seasonally cold in the beginning, but there's probably a better than 50% chance that we end the month above normal.  And as for storms, you're just guessing and hoping.  We had a stormy period.  Now maybe things go quiet.

 

We really don't know a lot of things, but what is presented here is our best educated (usually) opinion.

 

[eduggs]

Now you're just guessing.

In recent years, any given month is more likely to be above long term normals than below.

[jamesnichols89]

The 29/30th event odds are getting lower and lower, only the SREFs and NAM have the storm.  Rest of guidance is by far and away done with the event.  The 5th is getting interesting, GFS is colder now with secondary formation off the ME coastline, while I think its a long shot to get snow before the 5th, I think this winter is going by too fast.  Man a snowless December is excruciating.

[N. OF PIKE]

Man January should see some epic meltdowns

 

If I remember correctly I don't think Will Weighs Snowcover that high in importance (personally) to his enjoyment /satisfaction with winter weather. I know he said he was quite happy with the pattern going forward.

 

Will I wonder if you would be as excited with the pattern going fwd  if  "maintaining a pack" was higher rated to you. (and yes I know it must snow FIRST to have a pack lol)   

[powderfreak]

I don't see what all of the controversy is about.....I mean, is it much of a revelation that seasons that pitch a shutout in one of the met winter months are statistically favored to finish below normal?? It is what it is.

Yeah it's a pretty easy association to make.

[ORH_wxman]

We don't really know what kind of period we're entering. Looks seasonally cold in the beginning, but there's probably a better than 50% chance that we end the month above normal. And as for storms, you're just guessing and hoping. We had a stormy period. Now maybe things go quiet.

I don't see what evidence there is that we have better than a 50% chance to finish the month above normal for temperatures. If all we know is that we start the month below normal and you don't know what the pattern will be after that, then you would want to hedge below normal.

[scoob40]

I don't see what evidence there is that we have better than a 50% chance to finish the month above normal for temperatures. If all we know is that we start the month below normal and you don't know what the pattern will be after that, then you would want to hedge below normal.

Won't this month finish +2 or better for temps in most sites ?

[eduggs]

I don't see what evidence there is that we have better than a 50% chance to finish the month above normal for temperatures. If all we know is that we start the month below normal and you don't know what the pattern will be after that, then you would want to hedge below normal.

That's exactly the kind of thing I would typically say.  And I agree. 

 

But I looked a little closer this morning and I'm not sure we start the month so much below normal.  Daily averages are getting pretty cold now. And nighttime lows are critical to getting big negative departures.  A cutter or a few cloudy nights can spoil an otherwise cold airmass.  And beyond that, there's no denying that we're in a long term warming trend, so any given month is more likely to be above normal than below (all else being equal).  I think the historically recent warmth is even more pronounced in the winter months.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

In recent years, any given month is more likely to be above long term normals than below.

 

We know there will be a below start to the month. We would then need to be pretty substantially AN to end the month positive.

[Chrisrotary12]

Winter's been cancelled right?  Looking ahead to Spring and the return of shorts weather right?

[ORH_wxman]

That's exactly the kind of thing I would typically say. And I agree.

But I looked a little closer this morning and I'm not sure we start the month so much below normal. Daily averages are getting pretty cold now. And nighttime lows are critical to getting big negative departures. A cutter or a few cloudy nights can spoil an otherwise cold airmass. And beyond that, there's no denying that we're in a long term warming trend, so any given month is more likely to be above normal than below (all else being equal). I think the historically recent warmth is even more pronounced in the winter months.

I think the first ten days of the month look below normal. Then after that who knows.

January is actually a bad month to use for the background warming trend because it hasn't warmed going back over 100 years. The bookend months of winter are the ones that have warmed. Also, we have 30 year moving averages every ten years so the long term warming trend is muted by that.

In short, I'd hedge colder for January given the information we have.

[ORH_wxman]

Won't this month finish +2 or better for temps in most sites ?

He was talking about January.

[OceanStWx]

Winter's been cancelled right?  Looking ahead to Spring and the return of shorts weather right?

 

We're looking forward to dew point discussion firing up any minute now.

[ORH_wxman]

We know there will be a below start to the month. We would then need to be pretty substantially AN to end the month positive.

He doesn't agree that the month will start below normal. I think it will through the 10th or so.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

He doesn't agree that the month will start below normal. I think it will through the 10th or so.

 

Guidance I've looked at has the PV over Hudson Bay then sliding ESE to Northern Quebec. That's a pretty cold look to me. But I'm not good enough to know if it is right or not. So I'm going by what I see.

[scoob40]

He was talking about January.

Yeah but without a major pattern shift which appears up in the air at best (no pun intended} i would tend to side with an above normal call.

[jamesnichols89]

While the 29/30th event is dead amongst the major models, a clipper type system and redevelopment stages are starting to reappear on the hour 120 scale of the EURO/GGEM and ensembles.  Something to pay attention to with regards to the 1st and 2nd of January.

[OceanStWx]

Yeah but without a major pattern shift which appears up in the air at best (no pun intended} i would tend to side with an above normal call.

 

What about the changing height field is so up in the air all of a sudden? It's basically a complete reversal of December up in Alaska.

[weathafella]

While the 29/30th event is dead amongst the major models, a clipper type system and redevelopment stages are starting to reappear on the hour 120 scale of the EURO/GGEM and ensembles.  Something to pay attention to with regards to the 1st and 2nd of January.

What am I missing here? I see no such clipper today....

[scoob40]

What about the changing height field is so up in the air all of a sudden? It's basically a complete reversal of December up in Alaska.

Sure the first 10 days or so could be AOB normal temp wise but whether or not that locks in or is transient is indeed "up in the air".

[jamesnichols89]

What am I missing here? I see no such clipper today....

 

Look at the MSLP for hour 120, shows low redevelopment south of Nova Scotia, Canada, so does the GGEM today.  I'm saying just watch it for the next day and a half, if nothing changes then don't worry about it being anything, but if it does change for something better than we can all be happy.  All I am saying is watch this system, watch the trends the following 1.5 days.

[weathafella]

Look at the MSLP for hour 120, shows low redevelopment south of Nova Scotia, Canada, so does the GGEM today.  I'm saying just watch it for the next day and a half, if nothing changes then don't worry about it being anything, but if it does change for something better than we can all be happy.  All I am saying is watch this system, watch the trends the following 1.5 days.

I stopped chasing rainbows about 60 years ago. There's nothing there IMHO.

[Typhoon Tip]

I coined the phrase "correction vector" some years ago ... heh.  True though.  If you're in an era where less is most likely, you assume a muted conclusion should transpire over whatever ferkokta wayward model is trying to sell. 

 

Same goes true the other direction, too.  So for now are c-vector is toward less.   

 

But like anything ... they are just vectors. Not absolute.. The act as hindering or gathering strength, but don't mean yes or no.  

[powderfreak]

EURO is ugly on the 4th of Jan. Back to a rainer for all.

[Allsnow]

EURO is ugly on the 4th of Jan. Back to a rainer for all.

Repeat of Xmass ugh

[moneypitmike]

I just got back in from a sting of xc.  Conditions pretty granular and softened as we moved into afternoon.  But out-performed my expectations.

 

Just got back in and caught the 12z model runs--ugh.  Crap begets crap.

 

44.4/35 at the Pit

[OceanStWx]

Sure the first 10 days or so could be AOB normal temp wise but whether or not that locks in or is transient is indeed "up in the air".

 

So now we're tossing a third of the month because it may not lock in through St. Patrick's Day.

 

It really is pointless to come in here and discuss anything.