Ending out December with a Potential Pattern Change

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Those numbers from Taunton are ouchie. I don't like the odds but every season is different.

Heading out to do lawn work as December continues to be a summer month down here.

The super typhoon was so disruptive it gave us a taste of winter but it may take something similar to break this nonsense

[powderfreak]

The only relevance that study has at all is how many of those years were ENSO state like we have now strength wise and location. Other than that..that's a completely worthless study

Haha a study? It's facts listed on a one-graphic social media post. It's not relevant or irrelevant...it is what it is, historical statistics.

We do it all the time on this forum.

It's obvious you just didn't like the tone of it, lol. They didn't write any conclusions, just what happened in the past.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I feel like I'm starting to crave a couple sunny days more than a snowstorm, haha. Greybird after greybird after greybird.

We had five days in a row of similar here. Enjoying my torchy sunshine right now. Great time to do a last yard cleanup and get some extra lime down

[Damage In Tolland]

Haha a study? It's facts listed on a one-graphic social media post. It's not relevant or irrelevant...it is what it is, historical statistics.

We do it all the time on this forum.

It's obvious you just didn't like the tone of it, lol. They didn't write any conclusions, just what happened in the past.

But what they are trying to do is insinuate there's a good chance this winter ends up in a snow deficit at BOS. You can find numbers like that for any year based on what data set you are using. It's not relevant to anything. The only thing that you could use for this winter are similar ENSO state years, QBO< snow cover etc..How did years with similar conditions end up when BOS had less than 3 inches of snow to date. That is something that people could actually use. Not some meaningless study over the last 100 years

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Haha a study? It's facts listed on a one-graphic social media post. It's not relevant or irrelevant...it is what it is, historical statistics.

We do it all the time on this forum.

It's obvious you just didn't like the tone of it, lol. They didn't write any conclusions, just what happened in the past.

"Feel free to draw your own conclusions"

1 in 6 chance of having this little snow in Boston

If you're unlucky enough to be 1 of the 6, 50% of those years had less than 20" and only about 20% got near normal.

Great winter golf season here on the cape

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

December is toast. The 29/30th is dead. New years may not be 65 degrees like Christmas, but it's going to be bare, just like Christmas and the rest of December.

Good riddance to this month. What a disaster

[OceanStWx]

I feel like I'm starting to crave a couple sunny days more than a snowstorm, haha. Greybird after greybird after greybird.

 

How about milky sunshine as you smoke cirrus?

[JC-CT]

Sorry, forgot this was the designated weenie suicide thread. Repost:

It is time to write off January, it is going to be an epic torch. Who wants to start the February thread?

[OceanStWx]

But what they are trying to do is insinuate there's a good chance this winter ends up in a snow deficit at BOS. You can find numbers like that for any year based on what data set you are using. It's not relevant to anything. The only thing that you could use for this winter are similar ENSO state years, QBO< snow cover etc..How did years with similar conditions end up when BOS had less than 3 inches of snow to date. That is something that people could actually use. Not some meaningless study over the last 100 years

 

I commend how level headed you've been through this rough patch.

 

I do agree in part that this year could just be a small sample size set of background conditions that put BOS in the 20%  at or above normal, rather than the less than 20" grouping.

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

But what they are trying to do is insinuate there's a good chance this winter ends up in a snow deficit at BOS. You can find numbers like that for any year based on what data set you are using. It's not relevant to anything. The only thing that you could use for this winter are similar ENSO state years, QBO< snow cover etc..How did years with similar conditions end up when BOS had less than 3 inches of snow to date. That is something that people could actually use. Not some meaningless study over the last 100 years

Its not like they are using some obscure stat to back up an assertion. They are using snowfall. Going back that far covers a variety of atmospheric conditions, some I'm sure similar to this year.

Nobody is saying this year will be a dud but it does show how we have some work to do. If there is a year to do it, maybe its this year

[Damage In Tolland]

I commend how level headed you've been through this rough patch.

 

I do agree in part that this year could just be a small sample size set of background conditions that put BOS in the 20%  at or above normal, rather than the less than 20" grouping.

 

Right..I mean it's great they took time to compile that study and the results..but in reality..it doesn't really tell us much of anything other than the % of years above and below normal snowfall at BOS when they've had less than 3 inches to date.

A better study would have been to take current atmospheric conditions..and see what the results would show. To the avg person on Twitter or FB that sees that..dollars to donuts they are going to take away from that it's likely not going to be a snowy winter..when nothing currently points to that..and certainly nothing in that study.

[OceanStWx]

Right..I mean it's great they took time to compile that study and the results..but in reality..it doesn't really tell us much of anything other than the % of years above and below normal snowfall at BOS when they've had less than 3 inches to date.

A better study would have been to take current atmospheric conditions..and see what the results would show. To the avg person on Twitter or FB that sees that..dollars to donuts they are going to take away from that it's likely not going to be a snowy winter..when nothing currently points to that..and certainly nothing in that study.

 

Given the upcoming (forgive me) pattern, I would rather have a caveat in that slide saying BOS could be in for a snowier period the next two weeks. Or something to that effect.

[powderfreak]

But what they are trying to do is insinuate there's a good chance this winter ends up in a snow deficit at BOS. You can find numbers like that for any year based on what data set you are using. It's not relevant to anything. The only thing that you could use for this winter are similar ENSO state years, QBO< snow cover etc..How did years with similar conditions end up when BOS had less than 3 inches of snow to date. That is something that people could actually use. Not some meaningless study over the last 100 years

What? They just posted some harmless statistics. It's not a study. This is what snowman21 posts on here all the time...it's probably pulled right from the NCDC data set.

Just because you didn't like what it said doesn't make it useless. It's just statistics.

I'm sure if BOS was sitting at 30" and they had a stat that said 50% of those years resulted in snowfall over 80"...I'm sure it would be equally worthless as they would be implying a snowy winter is enroute.

[Damage In Tolland]

Given the upcoming (forgive me) pattern, I would rather have a caveat in that slide saying BOS could be in for a snowier period the next two weeks. Or something to that effect.

Exactly...entering what looks to be a very cold and stormy January that slide is very misleading..

[powderfreak]

Right..I mean it's great they took time to compile that study and the results..but in reality..it doesn't really tell us much of anything other than the % of years above and below normal snowfall at BOS when they've had less than 3 inches to date.

That is exactly what they are trying to tell you. The percentages of what has happened in the past, given snowfall of this amount on this date. No more no less.

[Damage In Tolland]

What? They just posted some harmless statistics. It's not a study. This is what snowman21 posts on here all the time...it's probably pulled right from the NCDC data set.

Just because you didn't like what it said doesn't make it useless. It's just statistics.

I'm sure if BOS was sitting at 30" and they had a stat that said 50% of those years resulted in snowfall over 80"...I'm sure it would be equally worthless as they would be implying a snowy winter is enroute.

It is a study and it's probably something that took them some time to compile. It's a study composed of statistics.

I'm unclear as to why this is agitating you so.

[powderfreak]

Exactly...entering what looks to be a very cold and stormy January that slide is very misleading..

Look at hurricane stats...people post those all summer long. When there have been X-number of tropical storms on Y-date, this is what has happened the rest of the season.

Or temps...when it has been X-average temperature for the first 6-weeks of met winter, this is what has happened in the rest of the season.

[OceanStWx]

It is a study and it's probably something that took them some time to compile. It's a study composed of statistics.

I'm unclear as to why this is agitating you so.

 

Actually it probably took them more time to create the aesthetics of the slide than look up the data and crunch the numbers.

 

[powderfreak]

It is a study and it's probably something that took them some time to compile. It's a study composed of statistics.

I'm unclear as to why this is agitating you so.

Haha it's not agitating, I just know you don't like it merely because of what it points to .

Nittany does this stuff all the time for BTV, it's very easy to do with the NCDC set. Probably took longer to pick out a photo than get the data.

[Ginx snewx]

Oddly kids we posted these stats and had this discussion over a week ago. Remember my repost of Ryan's thread about snowless Dec and snow the following months. Might be a small sample but I don't like it,hope we buck the odds. I totally agree with Kevin that average Joe and a few EMs are taking that tweet as a winter cancel. Bank on that interpretation

[Ginx snewx]

Actually it probably took them more time to create the aesthetics of the slide than look up the data and crunch the numbers.

lol it took me maybe three minutes when I did it a couple of weeks ago

[Cold Miser]

Oddly kids we posted these stats and had this discussion over a week ago. Remember my repost of Ryan's thread about snowless Dec and snow the following months. Might be a small sample but I don't like it,hope we buck the odds. I totally agree with Kevin that average Joe and a few EMs are taking that tweet as a winter cancel. Bank on that interpretation

Exactly.

And that is the effect it is having on social media right this second.  I've seen reposts of those stats on FB a few times today on FB and most of them are from friends rejoicing and hoping that winter will never come.  That seems to be who it is aimed at, regardless.

[Ginx snewx]

Exactly.

And that is the effect it is having on social media right this second. I've seen reposts of those stats on FB a few times today on FB and most of them are from friends rejoicing and hoping that winter will never come. That seems to be who it is aimed at, regardless.

yes, seen it thrown around.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

What? They just posted some harmless statistics. It's not a study. This is what snowman21 posts on here all the time...it's probably pulled right from the NCDC data set.

Just because you didn't like what it said doesn't make it useless. It's just statistics.

I'm sure if BOS was sitting at 30" and they had a stat that said 50% of those years resulted in snowfall over 80"...I'm sure it would be equally worthless as they would be implying a snowy winter is enroute.

Well thats the exact thing. If Boston had 25" or whatever and they posted that exact same graphic showing how Boston had like a 50% better chance of reaching 80" for the seaso , I'm sure people would be totally fine with it and pointing out the statistics are in our favor for a very snowy winter.

Of course when the statistics aren't in favor of what people want, they look for reason to poke holes in the data, or discount it. In simple terms, if it shows lots of snow it's fine, if it looks unfavorable its misleading and incorrect. Lol

With that said, I think this year has a chance to buck the trend, but it would be silly to not acknowledge a crappy December can absolutely mean crappy winter

[powderfreak]

Oddly kids we posted these stats and had this discussion over a week ago. Remember my repost of Ryan's thread about snowless Dec and snow the following months. Might be a small sample but I don't like it,hope we buck the odds. I totally agree with Kevin that average Joe and a few EMs are taking that tweet as a winter cancel. Bank on that interpretation

Yeah I agree because that's what the probabilities are telling them...but BOS did show exceptions to it.

But it reminded me of those hurricane graphics saying with no major hurricane through August or something, 75% of those years did not feature a major cane in the fall months. That doesn't mean a Cat 3/4 won't hit Miami, but just in the past it's been more likely to be a slow hurricane year or whatever.

I always enjoy the stats social media posts...I may not like what it shows, but stats are what they are. I guess that's why the public doesn't like probability forecasting...they want a black and white answer, is it going to be above average snowfall, yes or no.

[NorEastermass128]

Well thats the exact thing. If Boston had 25" or whatever and they posted that exact same graphic showing how Boston had like a 50% better chance of reaching 80" for the seaso , I'm sure people would be totally fine with it and pointing out the statistics are in our favor for a very snowy winter.

Of course when the statistics aren't in favor of what people want, they look for reason to poke holes in the data, or discount it. In simple terms, if it shows lots of snow it's fine, if it looks unfavorable its misleading and incorrect. Lol

With that said, I think this year has a chance to buck the trend, but it would be silly to not acknowledge a crappy December can absolutely mean crappy winter

Actually, I think Burbank likes to use that stat bolded above to show the correlation between a very snowy December in BOS and a lackluster seasonal snowfall.

 

We'll see.  I still think JAN comes in snowier than average.  Sticking by my call of 20-30" for BOS this month.  We may need to get into the second week of the month to see results though.  Maybe we pick up a few inches on 1/3-4.

[Damage In Tolland]

The reason they posted that study is to illicit those exact responses they are getting on Twitter.. Even mets

@growingwisdom: @NWSBoston it just seems the odds of a snowy winter after a low snow December are not very high.

[eduggs]

Exactly...entering what looks to be a very cold and stormy January that slide is very misleading..

We don't really know what kind of period we're entering.  Looks seasonally cold in the beginning, but there's probably a better than 50% chance that we end the month above normal.  And as for storms, you're just guessing and hoping.  We had a stormy period.  Now maybe things go quiet.

[eduggs]

The reason they posted that study is to illicit those exact responses they are getting on Twitter.. Even mets

@growingwisdom: @NWSBoston it just seems the odds of a snowy winter after a low snow December are not very high.

True.

[Damage In Tolland]

We don't really know what kind of period we're entering. Looks seasonally cold in the beginning, but there's probably a better than 50% chance that we end the month above normal. And as for storms, you're just guessing and hoping. We had a stormy period. Now maybe things go quiet.

Theres an extremely high likelihood of a colder and snowier than normal month if the past is any indication