Ending out December with a Potential Pattern Change

[ineedsnow]

Off topic but just saw a shooting star split in two then burn out could it have been a meteor that was sooo cool

[SnowGoose69]

possible Miller B setup, deep layered cold HP. Seems to me that total cutter look is going to change. Perhaps the myth of modeled cutters never changing goes down in flames.

They do change but since west is west whether it be Pittsburgh or Indiana, many here don't ever really notice that the track changed, if it goes from 100 SE of Chatham to over Boston everybody notices though.

[WinterWolf]

Off topic but just saw a shooting star split in two then burn out could it have been a meteor that was sooo cool

A shooting star is a Meteor.  If the Meteor reaches the ground it is called a Meteorite.  When it's still in space it's called an Asteroid.  3 different words for basically the same thing. The name just changes along it's journey.

[ROOSTA]

Wiz cancelled winter on FB, oh lord

Thankfully NO MAY 1st yet.

I find it comical those who complain or are let-down re: lack of snow will be the first to declare victory. Some will still moan to a foot!

Locking in and loaded like a mofo. I haven o idea what people are looking at or concluding to such results....Oh my....

[weathafella]

I didn't think wiz cared all that much abut winter. SE ridge helps us get snowstorms. NAO helps keep them east of us vs cutting.

[ineedsnow]

Just saw that!! I think everyone is just getting frustrated

Wiz cancelled winter on FB, oh lord

q

[ORH_wxman]

I would be curious to look at the data. For snow it doesn't need to be frigid... just cold enough. And at our latitude, when it snows, the warm air is usually close by. That baroclinicity drives most of our big events.

You are right that it doesn't need to be frigid. Frigid is usually bad actually in mid winter. But the mean pattern for snow in SNE including ORH at 1000 feet is still cold.

So if we can't really forecast QPF at 2 week lead time but we can say it will be below average temps, then the chances for snow should be elevated absent of a specific smoking gun that tells us otherwise. Such a smoking gun almost never exists at that lead time but an example might be a PV sitting over Maine. We could probably conclude in that example that it would be too dry for prolific snows.

[moneypitmike]

It always appears to you. You're a nice guy but your cup tends to be half empty. I'd say it appears likely you'll have SOME snow cover by the end of NYD weekend or before.

 

Not half empty--just keeping my expectations in check. I'd much rather enjoy something that exceeds my expectations.  Since NYD is a Thursday, does it get a 'weekend'?    I've been off work since the 20th and won't go back until the 5th.  It's going to be a tough adjustment back!

 

Pattern is getting to some in here today, Yikes

 

Hi.

 

Went out for a long post Christmas walk with the dog and wife. Def would prefer snow, but dry and 40 sure beats rain and 45 any day of the week

Peeps need to throw back some winter warmers and watch Snow Day on Netflix

 

In late December, they both suck. 

 

I have a right to melt... And I am real wet. But I'll re freeze soon

 

LOL.  Looks like some decent snow on the ground here in Bartlett.  The skiing (Nordic) likely won't be good, but it's better than the brown back home.

 

What do you think produce the airmasses and storm tracks? 

 

It's all about the Gulf Stream off Cape Cod, MA.

 

 

34.4/28 at the Pit.  Just hideous.

[TalcottWx]

Well a swfe is a system where the mid levels cut but the surface gets squeezed under us so I'm not sure they are different.

swfe seems to have varying definitions but you know what I meant... one is snowier than the other lol

[TalcottWx]

You are right that it doesn't need to be frigid. Frigid is usually bad actually in mid winter. But the mean pattern for snow in SNE including ORH at 1000 feet is still cold.

So if we can't really forecast QPF at 2 week lead time but we can say it will be below average temps, then the chances for snow should be elevated absent of a specific smoking gun that tells us otherwise. Such a smoking gun almost never exists at that lead time but an example might be a PV sitting over Maine. We could probably conclude in that example that it would be too dry for prolific snows.

Bingo!! Well said

[HoarfrostHubb]

Won't is deterministic and dangerous to assert. May not would have been better.

I guess I had assumed that pretty much everything posted on this forum is made with the premise that we are not in control of the weather. Otherwise I would make it snow everywhere but Wilmington

[BostonWX]

It's easy to get caught up in the deja vu of delayed BUT not denied. The pattern looks great here on out, and I think we cash in. I'm excited for the upcoming prospects, Jan should be fun.

[HoarfrostHubb]

AN Monday and maybe Tuesday also.

I'm siding with Blizz on this one.

[alex]

Speaking of snow on the ground, took a ride up to my other house yesterday (at Bretton Woods) and was really surprised by how much more damage the storm did there than in Bartlett. Not pretty snow but pretty much full snow cover here, while patches are left there. CAD FTW?

Not half empty--just keeping my expectations in check. I'd much rather enjoy something that exceeds my expectations. Since NYD is a Thursday, does it get a 'weekend'? I've been off work since the 20th and won't go back until the 5th. It's going to be a tough adjustment back!

Hi.

In late December, they both suck.

LOL. Looks like some decent snow on the ground here in Bartlett. The skiing (Nordic) likely won't be good, but it's better than the brown back home.

It's all about the Gulf Stream off Cape Cod, MA.

34.4/28 at the Pit. Just hideous.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, I think January 5-10 should kick things off.

Agreed.

[BostonWX]

Speaking of snow on the ground, took a ride up to my other house yesterday (at Bretton Woods) and was really surprised by how much more damage the storm did there than in Bartlett. Not pretty snow but pretty much full snow cover here, while patches are left there. CAD FTW?

 

 

Bartlett is a great CAD zone. The shape of the topography is a huge influence up there WRT to holding snow.

[BostonWX]

Yea, I think January 5-10 should kick things off.

Agreed.

 

It's so easy to let emotions take over a (I like to think) rational thought process. I don't expect a huge storm, but I think we have plenty of shots at moderate and light events. I just want the cold in place being on the CP, that's enough for me

[eduggs]

There is pattern improvement within 7 days... there is undoubtedly a cooler pattern moving in. That SE ridge might offer brief warmer shots into SNE but everything is better moving forward. As Will and Scott say "I'd take my chances" on this pattern over the current one. There will be opportunities for snow coming soon.

is there a potential that we get plain screwed and it doesn't work out? Yes.

I don't think there has been a stable pattern recently.  And I don't think we're transitioning into a stable pattern either.  So when you compare the "new pattern" to the "current one," I'm not really sure what you are comparing.  Going back several weeks, there have been changes to the longwave pattern every week.  The one constant is the lack of snow in the northeast coastal plane... and more recently, the lack of cold in the east.

 

I think the weather has been and is usually transitional.  Since there are no snow threats on the immediate horizon, I would take my chances with whatever comes 7 days and beyond too.

[SnowGoose69]

swfe seems to have varying definitions but you know what I meant... one is snowier than the other lol

 

Cutter vs SWFE may be harder to define in SNE...here its easy, a cutter is an event where best case is FZRA to RA inland and rain everywhere else, SWFE usually snows down to about a Trenton-Sandy Hook line at some point.....in SNE cutters can produce epic FZRA or PL before going over to rain for inland areas.

[eduggs]

A shooting star is a Meteor.  If the Meteor reaches the ground it is called a Meteorite.  When it's still in space it's called an Asteroid.  3 different words for basically the same thing. The name just changes along it's journey.

Could be a comet fragment too I think.

[eduggs]

You are right that it doesn't need to be frigid. Frigid is usually bad actually in mid winter. But the mean pattern for snow in SNE including ORH at 1000 feet is still cold.

So if we can't really forecast QPF at 2 week lead time but we can say it will be below average temps, then the chances for snow should be elevated absent of a specific smoking gun that tells us otherwise. Such a smoking gun almost never exists at that lead time but an example might be a PV sitting over Maine. We could probably conclude in that example that it would be too dry for prolific snows.

That all makes sense to me.

 

But in, say, January where ave temps are cold enough for snow, how much can a tenuous 2 week temp forecast actually tell you about snow chances?  The only way you could really rule out snow would be if you could confidently predict well above ave temps.  And even with temp anomalies, model skill isn't much better than climo at 2 weeks.

[ORH_wxman]

Cutter vs SWFE may be harder to define in SNE...here its easy, a cutter is an event where best case is FZRA to RA inland and rain everywhere else, SWFE usually snows down to about a Trenton-Sandy Hook line at some point.....in SNE cutters can produce epic FZRA or PL before going over to rain for inland areas.

The orientation of high pressure to the north is very important in whether a system cutting west can be prolific on the front end in SNE or snow or frozen precip.

Storms like 2/2/11 and 12/16/07 are example of system shooting well up into the southern lakes but then run into a brick wall with an arctic high in a favorable spot. There's several other examples too I didn't name. Conversely, we can have a runner type system from Nashville to NYC that doesn't produce much at all if the high is not there. Little nuances like that can be difficult to predict.

[CoastalWx]

I don't think there has been a stable pattern recently. And I don't think we're transitioning into a stable pattern either. So when you compare the "new pattern" to the "current one," I'm not really sure what you are comparing. Going back several weeks, there have been changes to the longwave pattern every week. The one constant is the lack of snow in the northeast coastal plane... and more recently, the lack of cold in the east.

I think the weather has been and is usually transitional. Since there are no snow threats on the immediate horizon, I would take my chances with whatever comes 7 days and beyond too.

Stable in a hemispheric sense. In other words, locations of long wave troughs and ridges. The s/w features embedded in the flow are the ones with change. For over 3 weeks we had a GOAK trough.

[ORH_wxman]

That all makes sense to me.

But in, say, January where ave temps are cold enough for snow, how much can a tenuous 2 week temp forecast actually tell you about snow chances? The only way you could really rule out snow would be if you could confidently predict well above ave temps. And even with temp anomalies, model skill isn't much better than climo at 2 weeks.

The fact that it isn't well above normal is enough to say snow chances are elevated. Climo includes those huge torches too. If we eliminate those huge torches, then our numbers become snowier.

So with that said, if we can forecast that we will not have a period of well above average temperatures, then we can say snow chances are elevated absent some other smoking gun.

[CoastalWx]

It's also more apparent in coastal areas where many people live. If you forecast a below avg temp regime, snow chances are elevated. Moreso than the interior where even there colder temps mean more snow.

[eduggs]

Stable in a hemispheric sense. In other words, locations of long wave troughs and ridges. The s/w features embedded in the flow are the ones with change. For over 3 weeks we had a GOAK trough.

I don't remember it being that long.  But I think that's basically true.  However, it wasn't like a standing wave.  If you took the multiday mean height position, you could say the mean showed troffiness over the GOAK.  But the amplitude and wavelength varied and there were transient ridges. 

 

This feature was correlated to our weather, but it's only one of many factors.  We could have had a snowstorm if other things had broken our way.

[eduggs]

It's also more apparent in coastal areas where many people live. If you forecast a below avg temp regime, snow chances are elevated. Moreso than the interior where even there colder temps mean more snow.

I think that's a good point.  In the mid-Atlantic and probably in the big cities up to Boston, snow is much more likely to come with significant cold.

[eduggs]

The fact that it isn't well above normal is enough to say snow chances are elevated. Climo includes those huge torches too. If we eliminate those huge torches, then our numbers become snowier.

So with that said, if we can forecast that we will not have a period of well above average temperatures, then we can say snow chances are elevated absent some other smoking gun.

That's probably a good way of looking at it.  But then we're left with the conclusion that everything but a torch on the horizon is a "good pattern."

 

I pretty much agree with that.  But 50-60" spread out over a winter means that even good patterns are going to fail to produce much more often then they deliver.

[CoastalWx]

I don't remember it being that long. But I think that's basically true. However, it wasn't like a standing wave. If you took the multiday mean height position, you could say the mean showed troffiness over the GOAK. But the amplitude and wavelength varied and there were transient ridges.

This feature was correlated to our weather, but it's only one of many factors. We could have had a snowstorm if other things had broken our way.

Well there are always nuances and disturbances that alter the overall day to day flow, but that feature was the reason why we were warm in December. When you have a prolonged temp regime above it below, usually it's due to the overall pattern.

[TalcottWx]

Cutter vs SWFE may be harder to define in SNE...here its easy, a cutter is an event where best case is FZRA to RA inland and rain everywhere else, SWFE usually snows down to about a Trenton-Sandy Hook line at some point.....in SNE cutters can produce epic FZRA or PL before going over to rain for inland areas.

I find the difference is just the amount of frozen precip in the end that falls.. and whether sne front end thumps or not. For sne specifically. If you want to dumb it down. Swfe definitions have been disputed many times here already lol. From what I understand that definition sort of kicked off and was created on euswx right?