Ending out December with a Potential Pattern Change

[CoastalWx]

Also he said "I've been hearing that for the last 6 weeks." I guess he was hearing it from some other sources because it was pretty obvious if you read in here that we weren't going to flip the pattern until Xmas once we got into the first week of December.

Yeah, I don't know lol. Weenies will hear it remember what they want to hear and remember.

[WinterWolf]

I think we are all invested emotionally to some degree as well.  I think the take away is, try not to let it ruin your day/week if things don't break the way we would like.  I know I am a little disappointed that I can't go sledding this week due to the poor winter weather conditions at the moment.  But looking at it objectively, there are a whole lot worse things that can be going wrong.  So when I look at it like that, I feel stupid for even being disappointed with the weather lol.

[mahk_webstah]

It seemed that 10-15 day progs have often looked good. In mid an late November very few were saying wait til Xmas but many were sayin after dec 10 or after 15. Then it was the 20th and then Xmas. Then dec 30 and now jan 4 or something so we can sneak something in and then pray for an nao or relax again. I am not blaming you or scott or any mets but this has pretty clearly become a winter that has looked good quite often on 8-15 day prigs but keeps getting delayed

Also he said "I've been hearing that for the last 6 weeks." I guess he was hearing it from some other sources because it was pretty obvious if you read in here that we weren't going to flip the pattern until Xmas once we got into the first week of December.

[mahk_webstah]

That too.

Yeah, I don't know lol. Weenies will hear it remember what they want to hear and remember.

[mahk_webstah]

I have a right to melt... And I am real wet. But I'll re freeze soon

[CoastalWx]

That too.

It's fine. I think it's just human nature to hear or interpret what you want to. Like we have been saying, the nuances that dictate snow vs no snow under the large scale pattern simply cannot be determined like 10-15 days out.

[eduggs]

I read the last 5-10 pages and I am just puzzled. This was a well advertised pattern, we knew it was coming. Take a break from weather if you can't handle it. There is a light at the end of the tunnel, the pattern is improving. We are heading in the right direction and we have not even entered January yet. We literally have three months of snowfall ahead of us depending on how you consider your months. 

 

God forbid a 2006/2007 winter verifies anytime soon. That would be horrific. Friendships would probably be ruined on here.

 

I absolutely call such BS on people who claim they aren't emotionally invested in the weather. That's just a pile of horse ****. You wouldn't post here thousands of times and post in-depth analysis if you weren't interested in the event.

We had some good storm threats to tack from the middle of November through early December.  Actually it was a pretty continuous stretch of threat tracking.   Inland and northern areas got several snow events.  Even the coastal areas had a few chances but generally got unlucky.  Since then we have moved into a period where not only has there been very little or no snow, but the threat tracking has also completely dried out.  Overall I would say things have gotten worse.  Sure, for the people who obsess over patterns and indices there is always a rocking pattern just over the next hill or at the end of the rainbow (and maybe there is).  But I always prefer an "imperfect pattern" that actually produces wintry events (even if they are marginal).

[HoarfrostHubb]

Below freezing here on my crappy thermo

[ROOSTA]

I highly recommend going back and reading the first post.

For those whom have reading comprehension issues the topic is:

 

ENDING OUT DECEMBER WITH A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE

 

Time to move on, the merits of the title speaks volumes.  

[ORH_wxman]

It seemed that 10-15 day progs have often looked good. In mid an late November very few were saying wait til Xmas but many were sayin after dec 10 or after 15. Then it was the 20th and then Xmas. Then dec 30 and now jan 4 or something so we can sneak something in and then pray for an nao or relax again. I am not blaming you or scott or any mets but this has pretty clearly become a winter that has looked good quite often on 8-15 day prigs but keeps getting delayed

Dude the pattern is changing before January 4th. It doesn't mean you get snow though. Whiffing on a December 29-30 threat doesn't mean the pattern didn't change. It means you whiffed on a snow threat.

I think it has become increasingly difficult to make that distinction on here for whatever reason.

[mahk_webstah]

Lol it is called confirmation bias and I teach it to managers all the time.

I should know better

It's fine. I think it's just human nature to hear or interpret what you want to. Like we have been saying, the nuances that dictate snow vs no snow under the large scale pattern simply cannot be determined like 10-15 days out.

[eduggs]

It seemed that 10-15 day progs have often looked good. In mid an late November very few were saying wait til Xmas but many were sayin after dec 10 or after 15. Then it was the 20th and then Xmas. Then dec 30 and now jan 4 or something so we can sneak something in and then pray for an nao or relax again. I am not blaming you or scott or any mets but this has pretty clearly become a winter that has looked good quite often on 8-15 day prigs but keeps getting delayed

It's true the target date always changes.  That's not because we don't have good mets.  That's because our ability to predict the weather out beyond 7 days is still significantly limited by our forecast model data.

 

It's funny how snow events sometimes sneak up on us in the short term while we're looking at 10 day progs and waiting for the Atlantic to cooperate.

[Damage In Tolland]

When folks get snow Monday gonna be a lot of AWT flying

[CoastalWx]

Of course if you go back to the original posts from 11 days ago, I did say even the 27th could be " messy" meaning the potential for something to move west was there. Just sayin'.

[mahk_webstah]

Dec 29/30 never seemed like a serious threat.

I get your overall point. I would say the pattern change I arriving as we speak

But don't you agree models have frequently looked very promising only to get less so the last 6 weeks?

Dude the pattern is changing before January 4th. It doesn't mean you get snow though. Whiffing on a December 29-30 threat doesn't mean the pattern didn't change. It means you whiffed on a snow threat.

I think it has become increasingly difficult to make that distinction on here for whatever reason.

[TalcottWx]

Overall I would say things have gotten worse.  Sure, for the people who obsess over patterns and indices there is always a rocking pattern just over the next hill or at the end of the rainbow (and maybe there is).  But I always prefer an "imperfect pattern" that actually produces wintry events (even if they are marginal).

Things have gotten worse if you expected them to improve by now I guess. The first half of December many were already calling that it would be at least after the holidays before we see a real chance of a wintry pattern. What has gotten worse?? The writing has been on the wall.

 

Regarding "obsessing over patterns and indices"... This is what forecasting is? Patterns produce storms. It's easy to identify a snowy pattern versus a crappy pattern if you use history to guide you. This was an imperfect pattern that had a low chance of doing anything meaningful. This is why people meltdown. The same "obsessing over patterns and indices" is what enables you to avoid a meltdown. You'll know what is over the next hill.

[eduggs]

When folks get snow Monday gonna be a lot of AWT flying

Not a lot of model support.  But I could see the wave being a little stronger than progged, riding a bit further north.  I've seen it before with these anafrontal setups.  But I'd still like to see a little more model support.  The low elevations might have some trouble cooling down too.

[mahk_webstah]

Instead it's dry and warm

Of course if you go back to the original posts from 11 days ago, I did say even the 27th could be " messy" meaning the potential for something to move west was there. Just sayin'.

[TalcottWx]

The pattern change is undoubtedly on it's way. The old one was as horrific as it gets. However, I could still see one more ugly storm before we get going. Prepare yourself for it and act like you've experienced a rainer before if it happens.

[Damage In Tolland]

Not a lot of model support.  But I could see the wave being a little stronger than progged, riding a bit further north.  I've seen it before with these anafrontal setups.  But I'd still like to see a little more model support.  The low elevations might have some trouble cooling down too.

Well the folks hanging on every model run and qpf and ruling it out becasue one run shifts it south and then the next brings it back are the ones that need to step away for a bit. It still may not happen..but dollars to donuts things will improve in the chaos of the model world as we move thru tomorrow..and we're probably looking at  alight event Sunday night into Monday. Probably rain flipping to snow. That SE ridge is going to bump this north no doubt

[Ginx snewx]

It's funny how snow events sometimes sneak up on us in the short term while we're looking at 10 day progs and waiting for the Atlantic to cooperate.

Leon

[eduggs]

Things have gotten worse if you expected them to improve by now I guess. The first half of December many were already calling that it would be at least after the holidays before we see a real chance of a wintry pattern. What has gotten worse?? The writing has been on the wall.

 

Regarding "obsessing over patterns and indices"... This is what forecasting is? Patterns produce storms. It's easy to identify a snowy pattern versus a crappy pattern if you use history to guide you. This was an imperfect pattern that had a low chance of doing anything meaningful. This is why people meltdown. The same "obsessing over patterns and indices" is what enables you to avoid a meltdown. You'll know what is over the next hill.

I do not agree at all that patterns produce storms.  In fact I think that's the biggest misconception that people have on this board. I think the definition is very vague and few actually understood what is meant by the word "pattern".  It's a giant oversimplification of atmospheric circulations... like forcing the shades of the world into black and white spectrum.

 

Storms come in all shapes and sizes... from every set up imaginable.  It's all about AIRMASSES and storm track.

[TalcottWx]

I do not agree at all that patterns produce storms.  In fact I think that's the biggest misconception that people have on this board. I think the definition is very vague and few actually understood what is meant by the word "pattern".  It's a giant oversimplification of atmospheric circulations... like forcing the shades of the world into black and white spectrum.

 

Storms come in all shapes and sizes... from every set up imaginable.  It's all about AIRMASSES and storm track.

What do you think produce the airmasses and storm tracks? 

[ORH_wxman]

Dec 29/30 never seemed like a serious threat.

I get your overall point. I would say the pattern change I arriving as we speak

But don't you agree models have frequently looked very promising only to get less so the last 6 weeks?

I haven't seen very promising model runs for storms inside of 6 days. The long range has mostly been hinting at crap for the dec 12-25 period so I'm not surprised we didn't get anything there. Someone's you get lucky but we didn't.

As for post-Christmas? It's looked decent for cold which will happen but it doesn't have to mean snow right away. So I'm going to disagree and say the models looked great for snow the past month but never materialized. If we to January 10-15 with nothing then I think that claim would more accurate.

[Ginx snewx]

I do not agree at all that patterns produce storms. In fact I think that's the biggest misconception that people have on this board. I think the definition is very vague and few actually understood what is meant by the word "pattern". It's a giant oversimplification of atmospheric circulations... like forcing the shades of the world into black and white spectrum.

Storms come in all shapes and sizes... from every set up imaginable. It's all about AIRMASSES and storm track.

you are making a silly semantic argument,of course Jay is asute enough to understand atmospheric dynamics, he was talking about snowstorms

[eduggs]

What do you think produce the airmasses and storm tracks? 

The unequal distribution of heat on the globe. 

[Ginx snewx]

What do you think produce the airmasses and storm tracks?

hey give me a positive AO,NAO EPO,negative PNA,hostile Atlantic,mega SE ridge and I'll show you how it snows, not. The pattern of course matters

[TalcottWx]

The unequal distribution of heat on the globe. 

This unequal distribution of heat is organized into.. It begins with a P.. 

[Ginx snewx]

The unequal distribution of heat on the globe.

simplified to a fifth grade level.

[ORH_wxman]

I do not agree at all that patterns produce storms. In fact I think that's the biggest misconception that people have on this board. I think the definition is very vague and few actually understood what is meant by the word "pattern". It's a giant oversimplification of atmospheric circulations... like forcing the shades of the world into black and white spectrum.

Storms come in all shapes and sizes... from every set up imaginable. It's all about AIRMASSES and storm track.

Getting half of that equation correct is where skill in the long range exists. We can predict cold with at least some skill. We can't forecast storms that far out.

This is the definition of probabilistic forecasting. We have two variables that are important. If one of those variables goes into a favorable state for snow while the other remains unknown, then you would elevate the chances for snow during that period.