CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 Christmas is interesting on the gfs lol Looks like rain. All going according to plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Looks like rain. All going according to plan.Yeah, by interesting I mean wrapped up rainer lol.Patience will be tested thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 Yeah, by interesting I mean wrapped up rainer lol. Patience will be tested thats for sure I've been stressing this for awhile. Cool air dives into Plains, carves out deep trough, we have crap airmass. Recipe for meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I've been stressing this for awhile. Cool air dives into Plains, carves out deep trough, we have crap airmass. Recipe for meh. Yup. You've been warning of this for days. Light at the end of the tunnel is really all that matters. Probably some classic classic Christmas meltdowns though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 Gonna need a snow event before this month is out if you want a blockbuster winter. I suppose you can really rack it up Jan-Mar..but that's usually a key thing to have, at the very least the interior getting something before the month is over. We've had plenty of times where winter didn't start until Feb on he coast and we got 70+", but the interior always did well beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Ginxy, I remember it well, Ryan came on the air in Feb of 13 and said that it was snowing at 6 inches per hour, not 6 inches per half hour. And I remember him saying it will probably be the heaviest snow you will ever see. He likened it to the heaviest lake effect snow out by the lakes. I have never heard of 6-8 inches in a half hour in my life. Maybe we can ask Ryan to comment on it if he can? Not calling you a liar, just saying I never heard of anything that extreme in CT.just checked two reports of 12 in 90 minutes, one report of 6 in one half hour. 3 reports of 8 in one hour all in Central CT Glastonbury, Hamden area, all unverified but even members here reported 6-8 in one hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Gonna need a snow event before this month is out if you want a blockbuster winter. I suppose you can really rack it up Jan-Mar..but that's usually a key thing to have, at the very least the interior getting something before the month is over. My sarcasm meter is working. I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Gonna need a snow event before this month is out if you want a blockbuster winter. I suppose you can really rack it up Jan-Mar..but that's usually a key thing to have, at the very least the interior getting something before the month is over. You just read my mind. Blockbuster if off the table, imo, if this month completely duds as though I think it is going to now. I did not expect this. I figured an event or two would work out around xmas and shortly thereafter, but that looks to be failing. I'm going to adjust my outlook if this holds through tmw. I have two seasons in mind, and they both spell an epic January, though not an epic season, as I had originally thought. December has just been too lousy for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 just checked two reports of 12 in 90 minutes, one report of 6 in one half hour. 3 reports of 8 in one hour all in Central CT Glastonbury, Hamden area, all unverified but even members here reported 6-8 in one hour Yeah that band had 6-8 likely. It became extremely hard to get mote than 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 My sarcasm meter is working. I think No, he is serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 What a disastah the GFS is for Christmas eve. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 What a disastah the GFS is for Christmas eve. Lol. This may go down is one of the worst Decembers that I can recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 You just read my mind. Blockbuster if off the table, imo, if this month completely duds as though I think it is going to now. I did not expect this. I figured an event or two would work out around xmas and shortly thereafter, but that looks to be failing. I'm going to adjust my outlook if this holds through tmw. I have two seasons in mind, and they both spell an epic January, though not an epic season, as I had originally thought. December has just been too lousy for that. Well we'll need a -NAO. That looks to want to happen for a time anyways. There is a window for snow before NY. I mean we did it on '04 with a fluke practically. Hold off until the NY if I were you. The thing is, when things flip..it happens quick. '03 flipped, '13 flipped...it happens quick. But usually areas like you and Will did well in December. So we'll see what if anything Christmas does and maybe prior to NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Does anyone know offhand Boston's rainiest Decembers? We have to close to the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 No, he is serious. Oh ok. For some reason I thought the opposite argument was made earlier. But maybe this is referring to the interior mainly..since they have higher annual averages to top and thus its more difficult to qualify for blockbuster season without December showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Gonna need a snow event before this month is out if you want a blockbuster winter. I suppose you can really rack it up Jan-Mar..but that's usually a key thing to have, at the very least the interior getting something before the month is over. We've had plenty of times where winter didn't start until Feb on he coast and we got 70+", but the interior always did well beforehand. Yeah I have been thinking the same thing Scott. If you look at the winters since 1950 where there were 3" or less at BDL in December the average snowfall is 21.4". Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 This may go down is one of the worst Decembers that I can recall. Yeah..it's not very often you get more snow in november than in December..speaking for my backyard at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 Yeah I have been thinking the same thing Scott. If you look at the winters since 1950 where there were 3" or less at BDL in December the average snowfall is 21.4". Ouch. Well that is a horrific winter. I was saying blockbuster...lol. I still like the odds of a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Well we'll need a -NAO. That looks to want to happen for a time anyways. There is a window for snow before NY. I mean we did it on '04 with a fluke practically. Hold off until the NY if I were you. The thing is, when things flip..it happens quick. '03 flipped, '13 flipped...it happens quick. But usually areas like you and Will did well in December. So we'll see what if anything Christmas does and maybe prior to NY.If I end this month with .5".....sorry.....case closed. Blockbuster not happening. Should be able to grab a few inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 Oh ok. For some reason I thought the opposite argument was made earlier. But maybe this is referring to the interior mainly..since they have higher annual averages to top and thus its more difficult to qualify for blockbuster season without December showing up. For the coast, we wasted plenty of Dec and Jan. I think Jan will come in and knock those prancing around in Fall coats, to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 If I end this month with .5".....sorry.....case closed. Blockbuster not happening. Should be able to grab a few inches... Right, that's why I said hold off until NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Yeah..it's not very often you get more snow in november than in December..speaking for my backyard at least.I have two analogs in mind....one worked out like that. I'll let the month play out before updating, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Well that is a horrific winter. I was saying blockbuster...lol. I still like the odds of a good winter. Right. I am saying, a horrific winter is quite likely if BDL fails to reach 3" before this month ends which is obviously still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Right, that's why I said hold off until NY. I figured about 15" for this month, but man....it's like a continuation of last March...found every way imaginable to not snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Also, they're missing data from some of those horrific 90's years like '97-'99 so in all likelihood that average is even lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 The thing is, Just over the border did real well, so it's not your typical suck patterns that caused December to be lackluster so far. The big GOA trough didn't help, but you can't completely associate that with your Dec '94, 06, '11 etc. They weren't the same. Dec has worked out tough for me which was expected, but I thought the interior would do well. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I will add That Novi being so robust negates it a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 I guess the bottom line is that if we get shut out in December (esp interior), then odds decrease significantly of a blockbuster, esp there. But, I still feel good about getting a fun Jan-Mar in here. I think a key feature to watch is how and if a -NAO tries to develop. That is key. If it doesn't, then odds are not as good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Yeah..it's not very often you get more snow in november than in December..speaking for my backyard at least. Yeah, not even close to sniffing even an inch here this month. Still 2+ weeks left in the month, and a huge storm on the 30th could make this whole discussion irrelevant. Only takes one big one to right the ship. So far, this is one of the worse Decembers I can recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The thing is, Just over the border did real well, so it's not your typical suck patterns that caused December to be lackluster so far. The big GOA trough didn't help, but you can't completely associate that with your Dec '94, 06, '11 etc. They weren't the same. Dec has worked out tough for me which was expected, but I thought the interior would do well. We shall see.I get tha it wasn't warm like the crap years...no one expects that, but the stats don't lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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