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Ending out December with a Potential Pattern Change


CoastalWx

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There are jabs here and there about others getting snow all the time. Rarely does anyone come out and say " I hope my area gets clobbered and screw what happens in SNE or NNE", but I'm sure people are thinking about it.

Its funny, sometimes I notice when a storm isn't favorable for NNE or SNE those people are the first to post bad news.

If its a SNE special and it goes south NNE people are the first ones on to deliver the bad news and same for a NNE special.

Personally, I don't really root for nobody to get snow. NNE economy is driven by good snow in the winter. I'm not wishing they get skunked just because I'm going to rain. If i have rained 4 straight storms and they are buried, yeah maybe I'll root against it one or two times.

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thanks for the map interpretation regurgitation,I hadn't looked....but pretty awesome you can delineate NNE from CNE on a map

What should we do then? Throw analogs out like 07-08 or 93-94? Or call a turd a turd? We are going to need a ssw event for blocking and that does not look like it's happening anytime soon...should we find comfort in knowing mt Washington might do well?

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lol you know how awful these forums would be if everyone wished others not to get snow if they couldn't have it either?

If SNE was expecting a good storm and then the EURO came out with a whiff, disappointing everyone, while posters in NNE started posting, "that was an awesome run, glad that missed SNE"...this place would turn into a sh*tshow. Or if those in CT were saying well "I'm really glad those guys north of the Pike get shafted this run, I can't watch that happen again".

It's like board etiquette not to wish for someone else to get screwed, just because you think you are out of the running. This forum would be a train wreck if we all did that to each other.

"Board etiquette" .....I'll translate this for you from internetonian to English. The english translation is "I'm a fraud". Sorry. You wish for me to rain. I wishfor u to smoke cirrus. I have more respect for those who just say it, than the duplicitous, ventriloquist frauds. The end.
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lol you know how awful these forums would be if everyone wished others not to get snow if they couldn't have it either?

If SNE was expecting a good storm and then the EURO came out with a whiff, disappointing everyone, while posters in NNE started posting, "that was an awesome run, glad that missed SNE"...this place would turn into a sh*tshow. Or if those in CT were saying well "I'm really glad those guys north of the Pike get shafted this run, I can't watch that happen again".

It's like board etiquette not to wish for someone else to get screwed, just because you think you are out of the running. This forum would be a train wreck if we all did that to each other.

Yeah, if people started towing that line this place would be a dumpster fire.

I get that people will be a bit bitter if SnE or NNE are on a historic run while the others get screwed, but other than that I dont really get the if I can't have it nobody can attitude.

NNE does better than SNE, its no secret. Happens just about every year. Unless you are willing or able to move and you live in SNE you have to come to terms with that

I do think Ray has a valid point in a way though. We all hope for snow in our backyards, which in turn means you are wishing someone gets screwed.

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It's like Tip claiming he's unemotionally attached to the weather...lol.

 

It's like odd that you pretty clearly insinuate I am being dishonest about that...lol.  

 

I really don't care that we are not getting snow -- in fact, I find the interference pattern quite fascinating.. But that's me!  I do other outdoor activities that are compromised by snow, so I'm good with it either way.

 

The other thing that I don't sense you really understand about this:  Yeah, if there's a lot of commitment in the guidance and teleconnectors support a big event, and then something other happens to serve as distraction, there is a huuuge difference in allowing that to ruin one's day -vs- just being annoyed that the specter of a good event was missed. 

 

I am more of the latter camp.  I am not one to be generally guided by this crap, where people dial their sense of joy into the vagaries of the weather.  That really is insane to give proxy over one's mood over to an utter system of chaos.  I will never get that. And I hate that about this site.  There's less sharing of interesting anecdotes and information, and waaay too much manic tendencies for my taste. 

 

Buut, I am a Meteorologist with no home.  I work as a software engineer, having not found the opportunity to apply what I know, or what skills I have, because our field as an industry is pinched quite a bit if you don't have a master's degree, or are exceptionally fortunate for whatever reason.  So it's the only outlet I have to be part of the Met community.  It's the lesser of two evils to me to just put up with statements like, "It's like Tip claiming he's unemotionally attached to the weather...lol."

 

Whatever you need to assign to me, I guess... 

 

'Sides, I don't think the weather is as hopeless as all the grousing.  I see some similarities, (though the analogs at NCEP disagree..) to December 2005. ...Sort of a higher latitude, "New Jersey model low" type.    I drafted up these comparative charts below to show this.  Note the December 8, 7am analysis (courtesy NCEP Library):

 

post-904-0-79196400-1419627623_thumb.jpg

 

...Note, this is a similar fast flow construct, with heights exceed 582dm over the Floridy panhandle region, and the ridge displace west causing a mean positive tilted trough... Now look at 24 hours later at 7am analysis on the 9th...

 

post-904-0-04151900-1419627719_thumb.jpg

 

Here are the Euro and GFS oper. 500mb, and compare them to the Dec 9 2005 chart just above.  In an ~60% sense of it, there's a bit of an analog in my opinion....

 

post-904-0-75555900-1419628061_thumb.jpg

 

Systems like the December 11, 2005 event are virtually impossible to detect in models beyond 72 hours out, and usually (as was the case with that event of lore...), we need to be within 30 hours to begin seriously discussing stuff that may need correction and so forth.  The models (save the ETA/NAM), really did not see the beta-meso-scaled nature of the low, and the chart topping deepening rates along with baroclinic mechanics ... all of which led in short order to drama.  Tropospheric folding, 110mph macrobursting winds in blinding rain going to blinding snow in lightning and thunder. Meanwhile, up here inland where the deformation bands arced into gravity wave induced bands, we passed through two intervals with hourly snowfall rates exceeding 5 and even 7" in some cases. All those extremeness' were driven to reality by literally grid-scaled gradients that were hugely sloped.  

 

There's no way to see such an event in a middle range, in a high gradient/nuanced circulation.  But... be that as it may (and I am not predicting 2005 redux here)... it is above all else an example, and one that fits (at least) conceptually to our next 10 or so days. 

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Why can't the folks that are having problems dealing with reality and the pattern and thinking the winter is lost just step away from the board. If that's your thinking and rationale then please get away from here. It's not healthy for you to peruse the board if you are mentally unstable with the lack of cold and snow. The cold is coming Sunday night. If things break right we wake up to snow Monday.. If not we wait till later in the week. Please deal or leave

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"Board etiquette" .....I'll translate this for you from internetonian to English. The english translation is "I'm a fraud". Sorry. You wish for me to rain. I wishfor u to smoke cirrus. I have more respect for those who just say it, than the duplicitous, ventriloquist frauds. The end.

Alright if that's how you want the posting on here, let's have it.

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You're the biggest sycophant in the world....Jesus. Everytime someone makes a post that even remotely jives with you, you promptly drop trou and proceed to chase them to the virtual bedroom. We get it. You're young, and want to be accepted.

You know something you are not very nice.  So, people cant agree with a post?   Really Pal, you are an unhappy camper.  You don't have to like me, that's totally ok.  But because I agree on something that another poster wrote, that makes me want to be accepted???  Grow up please, and stop with your nasty attitude. I never commented on any of your posts negatively ever.  I have just as much right to comment on anything I see fit to comment on as you do.

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Why can't the folks that are having problems dealing with reality and the pattern and thinking the winter is lost just step away from the board. If that's your thinking and rationale then please get away from here. It's not healthy for you to peruse the board if you are mentally unstable with the lack of cold and snow. The cold is coming Sunday night. If things break right we wake up to snow Monday.. If not we wait till later in the week. Please deal or leave

The wx part of your post is dead on IMHO. And of not, so be it! People are depressed for whatever reason but I do t see it as rational.

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Love you man and hope it's true but damn where have I heard that before

And how many times in the last 6 weeks from multiple sources. Will believe it when it is inside 3 days and gym and Bos are pondering watches.

Meanwhile away from insanity-ville, some signs a more favorable pattern develops after whatever happens day 8. There is a weenie -NAO ridge into NE Greenland and the -EPO is firmly established. You can tell with the way HP looks on the ensemble along with weenie bagginess in the isobars near and south of SNE.

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You know something you are not very nice.  So, people cant agree with a post?   Really Pal, you are an unhappy camper.  You don't have to like me, that's totally ok.  But because I agree on something that another poster wrote, that makes me want to be accepted???  Grow up please, and stop with your nasty attitude. I never commented on any of your posts negatively ever.  I have just as much right to comment on anything I see fit to comment on as you do.

I've met Ray, he's a friend of mine. When you accomplish in your life what Ray has, we can talk. But for goodness sake it's the fukking internet! And the post you agreed with was one of the many edduggs melts.

Like if the pattern is favorable and nothing happens it shouldn't even be mentioned? Is our only goal to wank to a blizzard modeled at close range? I don't know about you but I've learned a great deal in my 17 years on various forums.

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Why can't the folks that are having problems dealing with reality and the pattern and thinking the winter is lost just step away from the board. If that's your thinking and rationale then please get away from here. It's not healthy for you to peruse the board if you are mentally unstable with the lack of cold and snow. The cold is coming Sunday night. If things break right we wake up to snow Monday.. If not we wait till later in the week. Please deal or leave

Snow is serious business....

Waiting for a Winter.....Keeping the Faith

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I do agree that the pattern looks decent going forward, but then again the 21st and 28th both looked decent in the LR as did the 3rd and the net result will likely be two suppressed messes and one cutter. At some point we've got to get those decent looks to start becoming snow on the ground, maybe we see a miracle with the 30th, maybe the 3rd trends more favorably or whatever is behind it produces, but at some point we've got to move from potential to production or else we're headed for a fairly spectacular bust for most long range forecasters including myself. Something needs to buck the trend of screwing us, don't know what it is, but whatever it is, it better hurry up or this board is going to be unreadable.

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Why can't the folks that are having problems dealing with reality and the pattern and thinking the winter is lost just step away from the board. If that's your thinking and rationale then please get away from here. It's not healthy for you to peruse the board if you are mentally unstable with the lack of cold and snow. The cold is coming Sunday night. If things break right we wake up to snow Monday.. If not we wait till later in the week. Please deal or leave

+1 for you Kev. Holy whining on the board...take it elsewhere.

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