Ending out December with a Potential Pattern Change

[ORH_wxman]

Ens will look like last nite. Hit pike south

Less likely with the new OP being south of previous runs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Less likely with the new OP being south of previous runs.

Good.

[Brian5671]

Less likely with the new OP being south of previous runs.

Ugly.  Can't buy an inch of snow so far

[Damage In Tolland]

Good.

Never understood that mentality..rooting against friends to get snow

[dendrite]

Never understood that mentality..rooting against friends to get snow

You love a good NNE rainstorm.

[Ginx snewx]

You are going to like what the Euro is cooking

[Damage In Tolland]

You love a good NNE rainstorm.

I never root for anyone to rain. Ever. I'm not sure why an op run south signifies the ens will be south

[moneypitmike]

Do we toss November snows in good years because we shouldn't count on them for overall snow totals? I'm confused by that statement, because if that's true maybe we should toss the 20.7" at ORH in 1971 for instance. If we're only tracking DJF or DJFM snowfall then sure we might have already lined up an on par season at best. I guess I don't see how a snowstorm that hit 2-3 days before December is somehow less responsible for the snowfall this season.

 

Everybody in New England averages some snow in December, the fact of the matter is that regardless of where you measure your snow December only account for roughly 20% of seasonal snowfall. That includes RUT or ALY if you want an interior site not tainted by direct marine influences.

 

Not at all.  What I'm saying is that if you have that early snow followed my meh conditions the rest of the year, you may wind up with an average season in technical terms.  But if you were to ask how the winter played out, most people would have the subjection reaction that it was prerty meh.  I made a similar statement earlier that used the October 2011 storm as an example:  I had about 2' from that storm.  I could have nothing until January and still probably be running above average.  Technically, I'm off to a great start.  Staring at bare ground until January, I can tell you my opinion of the season would be pretty negative.  Great storm, but overall crappy.

 

There are statistics and averages and there's perception.  I have 16 inches on the season.  If you asked me on December 5 what I thought of the early part of snow season, I'd say it's great.  Ask me that now as I look at bare ground on 12/26 (and will continue to do so into next month it appears), I'd say the season sucks. I'll take the ability to look out the window and say this is a good winter--even if the numbers suggest I'm getting nickled and dimed to a constant but below average season--rather than a blockbuster storm early in the season that then produces bupkis.

[weathafella]

You are going to like what the Euro is cooking

I had the same thought. Wish the meal wasn't entirely virtual though..

[moneypitmike]

You love a good NNE rainstorm.

 

LOL!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Ens will look like last nite. Hit pike south

Doubtful. Maybe they aren't bone dry like the OP, but the chance of accumulating snow is growing smaller by the run

[weathafella]

Not at all.  What I'm saying is that if you have that early snow followed my meh conditions the rest of the year, you may wind up with an average season in technical terms.  But if you were to ask how the winter played out, most people would have the subjection reaction that it was prerty meh.  I made a similar statement earlier that used the October 2011 storm as an example:  I had about 2' from that storm.  I could have nothing until January and still probably be running above average.  Technically, I'm off to a great start.  Staring at bare ground until January, I can tell you my opinion of the season would be pretty negative.  Great storm, but overall crappy.

 

There are statistics and averages and there's perception.  I have 16 inches on the season.  If you asked me on December 5 what I thought of the early part of snow season, I'd say it's great.  Ask me that now as I look at bare ground on 12/26 (and will continue to do so into next month it appears, I'd say the season sucks. I'll take the ability to look out the window and say this is a good winter--even if the numbers suggest I'm getting nickled and dimed to a constant but below average season--rather than a blockbuster storm early in the season that then produces bupkis.

It always appears to you. You're a nice guy but your cup tends to be half empty. I'd say it appears likely you'll have SOME snow cover by the end of NYD weekend or before.

[weathafella]

Turns out the meal has some tainted food embedded and 1200 people were barfing at the same time.

Plenty of time to fix it though.

[mahk_webstah]

I am melted into a puddle of 7 inches of liquid equivalent composed of grinch storm rain euro day 7 snow and tears

[Ginx snewx]

Turns out the meal has some tainted food embedded and 1200 people were barfing at the same time.

Plenty of time to fix it though.

lol yep, full moon goon week lock up some big gyrations.

[Allsnow]

You are going to like what the Euro is cooking

Yep nice cutter into buffalo with a se ridge

[OceanStWx]

Not at all.  What I'm saying is that if you have that early snow followed my meh conditions the rest of the year, you may wind up with an average season in technical terms.  But if you were to ask how the winter played out, most people would have the subjection reaction that it was prerty meh.  I made a similar statement earlier that used the October 2011 storm as an example:  I had about 2' from that storm.  I could have nothing until January and still probably be running above average.  Technically, I'm off to a great start.  Staring at bare ground until January, I can tell you my opinion of the season would be pretty negative.  Great storm, but overall crappy.

 

There are statistics and averages and there's perception.  I have 16 inches on the season.  If you asked me on December 5 what I thought of the early part of snow season, I'd say it's great.  Ask me that now as I look at bare ground on 12/26 (and will continue to do so into next month it appears), I'd say the season sucks. I'll take the ability to look out the window and say this is a good winter--even if the numbers suggest I'm getting nickled and dimed to a constant but below average season--rather than a blockbuster storm early in the season that then produces bupkis.

 

It all makes sense now.

 

I do get what you're saying, but only caring about the view out your window at this moment is a recipe for a lot of disappointment.

 

Unless of course you can forgive a poor December if we go wall to wall nickel and dimes from early January on out.

[Brian5671]

Yep nice cutter into buffalo with a se ridge

Hideous run for most in this forum

[weathafella]

Saddest part of the euro run is d10 is a work day. Was hoping this staycation would never end....

I'm optimistic moving forward from Monday onward.

[powderfreak]

Never understood that mentality..rooting against friends to get snow

I agree with you...never been a fan of rooting for someone else to not get snow just because you may not. Seems childish but at least it's being honest I guess.

[Baroclinic Zone]

U-n-r-e-a-d-a-b-l-e

[HoarfrostHubb]

Lava rock is our latest Debbie.

Methinks NYD will feel plenty wintry.

Won't look it though

[butterfish55]

U-n-r-e-a-d-a-b-l-e

*like*

[SnowGoose69]

The Euro has been showing a massive cutter at Day 10 every other run, it'll verify as a weak wave in the end....I don't think we're seeing any big storms in this pattern. 

[Damage In Tolland]

I agree with you...never been a fan of rooting for someone else to not get snow just because you may not. Seems childish but at least it's being honest I guess.

God forbid someone else gets snow and the rooter againster's BY doesn't..LOL

[Randy4Confluence]

Just an inch to cover the ground and have it last a week...something that resembles winter would be nice at this point.

[N. OF PIKE]

The Euro has been showing a massive cutter at Day 10 every other run, it'll verify as a weak wave in the end....I don't think we're seeing any big storms in this pattern. 

 

excellent

[ice1972]

I'm enjoying all these "lost" December posts. As if SNE weenies ever really have December. It can be a tough month, maybe the highest variance of any of the big winter months.

BOS and ORH have "lost" about 18% of their climo snowfall, PWM and PVD 19%, and BDL 21%. None of this factors in the November surplus snowfall which has basically already been tossed from seasonal record in people's minds.

December has had excellent events in my 10 yrs here in SNE.....this December has sucked compared to that....my favorite was 12/19/08....and after Boxing Day 2010 we rocked.....there hasn't been a decent event within 5 days on any model since thanksgiving....fail....

Waiting for Winter....Keeping the Faith

[ORH_wxman]

December has had excellent events in my 10 yrs here in SNE.....this December has sucked compared to that....my favorite was 12/19/08....and after Boxing Day 2010 we rocked.....there hasn't been a decent event within 5 days on any model since thanksgiving....fail....

Waiting for Winter....Keeping the Faith

Nobody claims that December doesn't fairly often have good events. We are just pointing out that it's still a pretty small portion of winter climo. Particularly in El Niño winters. Think about those events you mentioned. They occurred in La Niña which more commonly has good Decembers.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I agree with you...never been a fan of rooting for someone else to not get snow just because you may not. Seems childish but at least it's being honest I guess.

Sorry, but what is childish is being intolerant of other perspectives. I'd rather sunny, than overcast and cold, or rainy. If the storm isn't going to snow on me, then keep it the hell away.