Ending out December with a Potential Pattern Change

[SR Airglow]

On the long range:

The problem with long range forecasting is that people latch onto the headlines or the "worst possible scenario" and don't actually understand what's behind it and/or why it is/isn't going to happen. No matter how much a forecaster might try to explain the reasons why it might not verify and express that a long range forecast is far from certain, once you put something out there, it's the gospel, and if the upper end of your range doesn't verify, you busted in the eyes of the public. It's like in the discussion we did about the 21st event 4-5 days out where we mentioned 10% chance of a miss, 40% chance of light stuff(which is what verified) and 40% chance of a big snowstorm (leaving 10% for a totally different solution entirely), one of our two most confident ranges ended up verifying, but because the big storm idea didn't verify, we got a bunch of nasty comments and messages about how we busted. Most long range probabilistic outlooks I've read so far this winter did a very good job of explaining their thinking and highlighting bust potential, and at some point, it becomes the responsibility of the reader to realize that a probabilistic forecast is just that, an exploration of the various possibilities and assigning some sort of weight to them as to how likely they are to occur(and explaining why).

 

On the short range:

Surprised at the lack of mention of last nights EURO ensembles which were well north with the 29th-30th event and looked to be a widespread 1-3/2-4 type of deal in SNE after some rain to start in southern zones.

[40/70 Benchmark]

less than an inch here YTD. From here south is where the real snowfall bust may lie. Can't imagine NYC, PHL, DCA getting much in this pattern unless the NAO mysteriously comes to life (and no sign of that) further northeast into NE maybe ok, as latitude certainly helps, but very difficult to imagine many getting an above normal snowfall year unless there's some sort of 2/8/13 type deal. If we lose 12/30 and 1/4 to rain or misses, we're done yet another week to 10 days with zip.

Two moderate events being thosecities near average.

[leo1000]

Why are the models struggling so much with this pattern?. I looked at the op runs of 00z gfs and it looked great with at least a couple of coastal storms the same with the 6z Gfs but the 12Z looks like a couple of cutters instead. That storm by the way on the 30th of December looks good for the eastern US but it looks like it passes by well to the south of my area Nova Scotia.

[moneypitmike]

The clock starts ticking after Presidents Day relatively speaking and even then there is still plenty of time.

 

Actually, there isn't plenty time for winter after the second Monday in February.  They'll start tapping trees about 3 weeks after that.

 

The problem is a lot of weenies don't understand probabilistic forecasts. They read them like they would a deterministic forecast.

I've always sort of cringed at long range pattern talk for this very reason. The uncertainty is very high. Even if you know a pattern change is coming, all people here really care about is if it snows in their backyard. That is just one more layer of variance on top of an already uncertain science.

That said, I do think there is value in it. We clearly saw the change to a colder regime coming a while ago. It's going to happen. We knew that because of the ridging shooting north into Alaska and even well up into the Arctic Ocean. It wasn't because of statistically insignificant data either.

We also said a bunch of times that it doesn't mean you are going to get 18" of snow in the first 10 days of the new regime. You might get skunked. It sucks when that happens but it is perfectly within the envelope of reasonable solutions for those ten days. If it wasn't, then they would average 100" of snow per year on the coastal plain.

The good news is:

1. We haven't gotten skunked yet. We could still easily get a couple events.

2. Even if we do get skunked through 1/10, there doesn't look to be a shift away from the -EPO. So we will likely have some more shots.

 

I understand the difference between probabilistic and deterministic.  However, when you've been shooting blanks and not seeing anything of substance in the future from a deterministic standpoint, one must worry and wonder if they should have forks at the ready.  The most promising patterns can suck when all is sad and done.

[ORH_wxman]

Actually, there isn't plenty time for winter after the second Monday in February. They'll start tapping trees about 3 weeks after that.

I understand the difference between probabilistic and deterministic. However, when you've been shooting blanks and not seeing anything of substance in the future from a deterministic standpoint, one must worry and wonder if they should have forks at the ready.

How does tapping sap from Maples supersede actual climatological data for snow?

As for "shooting blanks"? The previous failure of an event to materialize will not alter my perception on whether a pattern is favorable or not going forward. But I can understand how some might let that cloud their judgment. Snow is serious business in here.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah Euro and Ens flipped rain to snow Sunday Nite and stopped a few inches pike south . Even some minor accums to ocean

[weathafella]

On the long range:

The problem with long range forecasting is that people latch onto the headlines or the "worst possible scenario" and don't actually understand what's behind it and/or why it is/isn't going to happen. No matter how much a forecaster might try to explain the reasons why it might not verify and express that a long range forecast is far from certain, once you put something out there, it's the gospel, and if the upper end of your range doesn't verify, you busted in the eyes of the public. It's like in the discussion we did about the 21st event 4-5 days out where we mentioned 10% chance of a miss, 40% chance of light stuff(which is what verified) and 40% chance of a big snowstorm (leaving 10% for a totally different solution entirely), one of our two most confident ranges ended up verifying, but because the big storm idea didn't verify, we got a bunch of nasty comments and messages about how we busted. Most long range probabilistic outlooks I've read so far this winter did a very good job of explaining their thinking and highlighting bust potential, and at some point, it becomes the responsibility of the reader to realize that a probabilistic forecast is just that, an exploration of the various possibilities and assigning some sort of weight to them as to how likely they are to occur(and explaining why).

 

On the short range:

Surprised at the lack of mention of last nights EURO ensembles which were well north with the 29th-30th event and looked to be a widespread 1-3/2-4 type of deal in SNE after some rain to start in southern zones.

Today's GEFS also like the short range you pointed out. It's a low probability but not dead threat. IMHO.

[OceanStWx]

LOL, you'll be fine right through mid March in W HFD. The events that start to suck after early March are the 2-4SM -SN events that amount to fiddle sticks anyways.

 

I'm enjoying all these "lost" December posts. As if SNE weenies ever really have December. It can be a tough month, maybe the highest variance of any of the big winter months.

 

BOS and ORH have "lost" about 18% of their climo snowfall, PWM and PVD 19%, and BDL 21%. None of this factors in the November surplus snowfall which has basically already been tossed from seasonal record in people's minds.

[weathafella]

And cmc has sne snow the 30th.

[Sn0waddict]

I'm enjoying all these "lost" December posts. As if SNE weenies ever really have December. It can be a tough month, maybe the highest variance of any of the big winter months.

 

BOS and ORH have "lost" about 18% of their climo snowfall, PWM and PVD 19%, and BDL 21%. None of this factors in the November surplus snowfall which has basically already been tossed from seasonal record in people's minds.

Ya i was thinking the same thing. December generally doesn't provide a lot of snow to SNE. Feb is our best month.

[SR Airglow]

Today's GEFS also like the short range you pointed out. It's a low probability but not dead threat. IMHO.

Yeah I saw that, actually looks like a decent number that event up into advisory criteria or better for parts of the area. GGEM also looked good for some flakes and 1-2" ish. I'd say it's a moderate possibility to see some flakes and longshot but not zero for advisory or better. We've all seen what these overrunning events can do in the short range, doesn't mean they will do it but writing this off with 3.5-4 days to go is way too premature.

[weathafella]

Yeah I saw that, actually looks like a decent number that event up into advisory criteria or better for parts of the area. GGEM also looked good for some flakes and 1-2" ish. I'd say it's a moderate possibility to see some flakes and longshot but not zero for advisory or better. We've all seen what these overrunning events can do in the short range, doesn't mean they will do it but writing this off with 3.5-4 days to go is way too premature.

I'll take p006 thank you.

[Lava Rock]

Flies are out, hurray.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro eps says we snow

[CoastalWx]

Ya i was thinking the same thing. December generally doesn't provide a lot of snow to SNE. Feb is our best month.

Nah dude. They'll be tapping trees in February. It's over. Maple syrup is the best metric of all.

[SnowMan]

Isn't the meteorological aspect of this pattern and lack of snow just amazing...at least that what Tip would want us to focus on...

[CapturedNature]

How does tapping sap from Maples supersede actual climatological data for snow?

 

There really isn't any being the resident maple sugar producer I felt compelled to answer, lol.  You need temps in the 40s during the day and in the 20s at night for optimum sap flow, particularly following a hard freeze.  If it's getting warmer or colder than that and the sap won't run as well.  The other factor is the tap hole which will last between 6 and 8 weeks (maybe longer with some modern systems) so you need to try and make that window of time center around the climatological peak of temperatures.  Snow chances fade pretty much after that.  Nature isn't going to lie about the weather.  That's why I tap in early to mid-February in CT and end the last weekend of March when some places in Quebec are just getting going.

[weathafella]

Lava rock is our latest Debbie.

Methinks NYD will feel plenty wintry.

[CapturedNature]

Nah dude. They'll be tapping trees in February. It's over. Maple syrup is the best metric of all.

 

Trust the farmers....when you see the buckets or taps going in, it'll be about 6-8 weeks until it is over.

 

[weathafella]

Isn't the meteorological aspect of this pattern and lack of snow just amazing...at least that what Tip would want us to focus on...

Bad effort. You're a nice guy though unless I'm getting rain and you snow.

The pattern is getting cold. Snow will be determined but somehow I'm not using gfs exclusively to give me that information particularly when the op will be retired in about 3 weeks.

[CapturedNature]

Ya i was thinking the same thing. December generally doesn't provide a lot of snow to SNE. Feb is our best month.

 

January is my best month with 16.6" followed by February at 14.4" but December isn't far behind at #3 with 11.9"

 

I'm certainly not worried though.  It's not even January yet and I have about 9" for the season and plenty of field ahead!

[SnowMan]

Bad effort. You're a nice guy though unless I'm getting rain and you snow.

The pattern is getting cold. Snow will be determined but somehow I'm not using gfs exclusively to give me that information particularly when the op will be retired in about 3 weeks.

lol yeah was just trying to be funny...

[moneypitmike]

How does tapping sap from Maples supersede actual climatological data for snow?

As for "shooting blanks"? The previous failure of an event to materialize will not alter my perception on whether a pattern is favorable or not going forward. But I can understand how some might let that cloud their judgment. Snow is serious business in here.

 

My point is to provide a reference to the notion that there's plenty of time to salvage a weak winter performance after President's Day (if in fact it is a weak winter performance).  The commencement of sap flow is a sign of spring's impending arrival, and the tapping of the trees is a sign of the impending sap flow. 

 

I'm enjoying all these "lost" December posts. As if SNE weenies ever really have December. It can be a tough month, maybe the highest variance of any of the big winter months.

 

BOS and ORH have "lost" about 18% of their climo snowfall, PWM and PVD 19%, and BDL 21%. None of this factors in the November surplus snowfall which has basically already been tossed from seasonal record in people's minds.

 

Many of us in SNE typically do have snow in December. 

 

With respect to November, yes it counts toward the season for record-keeping.  But, to use that as a way to salvage a winter is akin to using mild nights in the summer to call something a torch of a summer while the days are devoid of heat and provide wire-to-wire COC weather.  Only one person on the board calls that type of summer a torch--technically, they may be right about a warmer than average regime, but is it really a torch in any reasonably subjective opinion?  Not so much.

[CoastalWx]

My point is to provide a reference to the notion that there's plenty of time to salvage a weak winter performance after President's Day (if in fact it is a weak winter performance). The commencement of sap flow is a sign of spring's impending arrival, and the tapping of the trees is a sign of the impending sap flow.

Many of us in SNE typically do have snow in December.

With respect to November, yes it counts toward the season for record-keeping. But, to use that as a way to salvage a winter is akin to using mild nights in the summer to call something a torch of a summer while the days are devoid of heat and provide wire-to-wire COC weather. Only one person on the board calls that type of summer a torch--technically, they may be right about a warmer than average regime, but is it really a torch in any reasonably subjective opinion? Not so much.

Because there is still a good month for events not needing a lot of help after Presidents' Day.

[jamesnichols89]

After looking at the first half of the 12z suite, it looks like the 29-30th event is still in the cards.  GFS brings 1-2" to CHH.

[dendrite]

Euro is south with 29-30.

[SR Airglow]

EURO is suppressed on the first wave and says what second wave, 0.0" QPF for all.
Edit: Second wave is there but it's a strung out weak mess that's well south of us.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The 29-30 is on life support. Not expecting anything really.

[Damage In Tolland]

Ens will look like last nite. Hit pike south

[OceanStWx]

Many of us in SNE typically do have snow in December. 

 

With respect to November, yes it counts toward the season for record-keeping.  But, to use that as a way to salvage a winter is akin to using mild nights in the summer to call something a torch of a summer while the days are devoid of heat and provide wire-to-wire COC weather.  Only one person on the board calls that type of summer a torch--technically, they may be right about a warmer than average regime, but is it really a torch in any reasonably subjective opinion?  Not so much.

 

Do we toss November snows in good years because we shouldn't count on them for overall snow totals? I'm confused by that statement, because if that's true maybe we should toss the 20.7" at ORH in 1971 for instance. If we're only tracking DJF or DJFM snowfall then sure we might have already lined up an on par season at best. I guess I don't see how a snowstorm that hit 2-3 days before December is somehow less responsible for the snowfall this season.

 

Everybody in New England averages some snow in December, the fact of the matter is that regardless of where you measure your snow December only account for roughly 20% of seasonal snowfall. That includes RUT or ALY if you want an interior site not tainted by direct marine influences.