Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Its becoming increasingly unlikely of a blockbuster winter. Ideas of around 50-60 inches are where people should start wrapping heads around. Anything higher than that this year is going to be unattainable since we lost a whole month Wait you have 10 inches so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Its becoming increasingly unlikely of a blockbuster winter. Ideas of around 50-60 30-50 inches (south of the pike) are where people should start wrapping heads around. Anything higher than that this year is going to be unattainable since we lost a whole month Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Wait you have 10 inches so far. lol. Yup. Sounds like he's had a good 5 weeks so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Boring begets boring. Cutters gunna cut. Nooses getting tighter. Weenies melting down in epic fashions. My forecast for the first 2 weeks. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Wait you have 10 inches so far.I have 11. I could see this area getting 30-40 more, but the way the long range is breaking its best to lower forecasts and expectations now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I thought 30-40 south of the pike was a good call this winter. So far I don't really see any reason to waiver from that. Doesn't seem like a ratter at the moment, but we are also not seeing the most favorable of patterns. I think NNE could end up doing very well when all is said and done. They are already off to a great start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 No comments on last night's euro? Must be pretty un eventful but I havent checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 No way. One month can feature snowfall of greater than 40"....especially in an el Nino season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Para is probably an inch or two for the 29th system. Maybe. Also it continues as it has for the last several runs to show a nice cutter moving through on the 3-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 We may also have to watch Sunday night into Monday as rain flips to snow. Maybe an inch or 2 away from coast. Some modeling shows that scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 It would be nice to see the sun at some point in the next couple weeks too. Another greybird day of flurries and stratus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 It would be nice to see the sun at some point in the next couple weeks too. Another greybird day of flurries and stratus.Most of us would much prefer that wx to the full sun and 40's high terrain and 50'svalleys in SNE the next 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2014 Author Share Posted December 26, 2014 Bring on the sun and 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Most of us would much prefer that wx to the full sun and 40's high terrain and 50'svalleys in SNE the next 3 days I bet most are enjoying some sunshine down there and could care less about the temps/sun if there's no snow on the ground... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Bring on the sun and 50s.I don't believe that act for a second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 No way. One month can feature snowfall of greater than 40"....especially in an el Nino season. Oye. It's as if people don't even remember two years ago. I can't wait to see the whining in here if the 1/4 system cuts...which if very well may. No Atlantic blocking = higher chance of cutters even with tons of EPO-induced cold. See Jan 94. I still really like the pattern out as far as the ensembles can see. I'd really like to see the NAO start showing signs. Maybe we can get some change just after mid-month like January 2005. On a side note, 12/30 might still have a faint pulse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I don't believe that act for a second I do. It's thick overcast low stratus here at 39F in town and spitting snow grains. Why would you want that over sunny and 40s? It's not like you are missing a snowstorm or have a deep pack to protect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I do. It's thick overcast low stratus here at 39F in town and spitting snow grains. Why would you want that over sunny and 40s? It's not like you are missing a snowstorm or have a deep pack to protect.Because I like wintry wx in winter. I don't like Morch in the last week of Dec. lord knows that month will be here soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I feel like I'm starting to crave a couple sunny days more than a snowstorm, haha. Greybird after greybird after greybird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Its becoming increasingly unlikely of a blockbuster winter. Ideas of around 50-60 inches are where people should start wrapping heads around. Anything higher than that this year is going to be unattainable since we lost a whole month Kevin you really expect me to change my expectation of 90"+ to 30"-50" cause we lost a month lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2014 Author Share Posted December 26, 2014 I don't believe that act for a second There's no snow. Who cares. What the hell is grey and 45 going to do? Screw it. If it's not Going to be winter, keep the heat bill down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 No way. One month can feature snowfall of greater than 40"....especially in an el Nino season.Except it's not a Nino pattern in the least thru mid Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Because I like wintry wx in winter. I don't like Morch in the last week of Dec. lord knows that month will be here soon enough I guess it just doesn't feel like winter weather. It feels like post-FROPA in late October. I'd rather see sun at the same temp than grey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I guess it just doesn't feel like winter weather. It feels like post-FROPA in late October.I'd rather look outside and see flakes in the air and 38 over cloudless skies, green grass and bugs flying around which is what SNE is experiencing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Oye. It's as if people don't even remember two years ago. I can't wait to see the whining in here if the 1/4 system cuts...which if very well may. No Atlantic blocking = higher chance of cutters even with tons of EPO-induced cold. See Jan 94. I still really like the pattern out as far as the ensembles can see. I'd really like to see the NAO start showing signs. Maybe we can get some change just after mid-month like January 2005. On a side note, 12/30 might still have a faint pulse. But should someone really be expecting a 40" month? It's not like they grow on trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Kevin you really expect me to change my expectation of 90"+ to 30"-50" cause we lost a month lol?You expected 90"+ for Sledding Mountain? That is a rare bird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I'd rather look outside and see flakes in the air and 38 over cloudless skies, green grass and bugs flying around which is what SNE is experiencing Well don't think we have some currier and Ives stuff going on up here. It's like poor snow growth flurries of snow grains on top of a beaten down snowpack. To me this is like late-March/April or Oct/Nov. But anyway, I'm just getting antsy for some sun. I wouldn't want 50F and sun...just sun, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 actually that is how it works when looking at a generalized overview of the world If you are looking at your back yard of course a similar 5h setup can yield different results. Research had shown that teleconnections yield similar physical results. No argument There are many problems with this. The first is that there are so many variables. The atmosphere is continuous and dynamic across the globe, so certainly the state of the atmosphere in one location will affect the flow someplace else. There are very general recurrent "patterns." But the specific state of these patterns and their evolution can take on an infinite degree of variation. We try to categorize indices with algorithms and weighted averages to define them and then ascribe characteristics to these numbers. But the thing we are categorizing is much more complicated than our categorization system. The height field in Alaska or the western Pacific might yield favorable conditions for snow in one instance, but that doesn't mean it always will. We try to invent "characteristic patterns" that we think we've seen before and then expect a repeatable outcome. Even with a favorable NAO, PNA, AO, and recurving Typhoon, we just might not get favorable weather. It is even more challenging in mid-latitudes with such transitional and dynamic atmospheric flow. Those indices are averaged and generalized and useful only on a very large scale. There is not a strong enough correlation between the regional or local scale that we are interested in for weather and the large or global scale that we are looking at for "patterns." There is definitely a link, but it's not as sure of a thing as a lot of people think. Another problem is the relatively small sample size in historical correlations. All the time I see people filter data by ENSO or MJO state and also by month or some other variable and then come up with a really pretty picture that looks convincing. But the mathematician in me knows that if you only have 2 or 3 or even 5 instances of those variables, your result is not statistically significant. The last problem concerns causality. I often see people talk about the forecast state for various climate indices and teleconnectors. They then infer based on the modeled future state of the global atmosphere what the weather "pattern" over the US is likely to be, and then further speculate what that might mean for the weather in the northeast US. This exercise employs a very tenuous logical framework. The first problem is that climate does not cause weather. You can associate certain states of one to specific conditions, but climate describes rather than causes weather. When the weather (i.e. the atmosphere) changes, the climate indices will also change. It is the weather that drives our measurement of climate. So it seems a bit backwards to be looking at forecasts for the climate to discern the future weather. And the forecast indices are as likely to be wrong as a 10 day GFS prog. So to make a reliable prediction about regional weather and the likelihood for snow you have to make one assumption on top of another, none of which is well supported. There are clearly characteristic atmospheric patterns and they recur and correlate in somewhat repeatable forms on a global scale. But we are still not good enough at predicting their formation and evolution, and especially the regional and local impact. A lot of the "pattern" talk on here I feel is just leading a herd of "weenies" off a cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 But should someone really be expecting a 40" month? It's not like they grow on trees.How often does ORH get one of those? About 1 in 10? I mean, it happens but not very often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 the thanksgiving snow has to be the most indestructible snow ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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