SR Airglow Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Thanks for answering my last question. My next question is when does the para GFS become the only gfs? Jan 14th I believe is the date. Para looked good leading up to it, but ends up shearing it out, light snow verbatim hours 84-90 and then out. Sort of a weird evolution considering that it looked good aloft coming up to the event at H5. Another run, another solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 So the heights go from above to below to Above In AK. Yeah ok. Classic weeklies. Meanwhile the week 1 and 2 forecasts have trended over 200 meters higher in AK compared to Monday's forecast. Good luck dry jumping those forecasts. Yeah something just didn't seem right there. It rebuilds the -EPO week 4 but wk 3 seemed weird. Maybe they consumed too much eggnog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Relaxation? Seems like we've been in relaxation mode most of the season thus far. But I suppose high 50's and low 60's are climo for this time of year. December 25th, and time to punt the winter. relaxation in context of EPO heights over AK, Geezus now I know how Scooter feels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Last year in late December and early Jan I ranted about the winter just sucking wind and was told to be patient.....there was some rebound and winter dud show for a few weeks but it wasn't long before the Forsythia bloomed.....with a few min left on this holy night before the 0z GFS comes out i'd just ask for a few reassuring words from the vets on here....Ginxy and Fella perhaps....that all is not lost....suks so bad that December has been lost....in a short 6 weeks we'll be whistling Dixie on a light SW breeze wondering WTF happened to winter....not a lot of time left folks....before you know it Morch will be here and we'll be holding our collective weenies in our hands wondering how we got here.... Waiting For Winter....Worse than Last Year..... Patience Grasshopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Canadian also shifted to the first wave, threat is dead if that's what verifies as it's not cold enough yet for anything other than rain. Need to keep it the second wave that amplifies if we want to see snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Canadian also shifted to the first wave, threat is dead if that's what verifies as it's not cold enough yet for anything other than rain. Need to keep it the second wave that amplifies if we want to see snow out of this.as I told James, save a horse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Jan 14th I believe is the date. Para looked good leading up to it, but ends up shearing it out, light snow verbatim hours 84-90 and then out. Sort of a weird evolution considering that it looked good aloft coming up to the event at H5. Another run, another solution. It's beginning to look alot like Christmas.....buuut onnnnly at H5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I actually thought the para was going to look decent. Ended up looking like crap. Gfs also looks Like crap. This threat is headed in the wrong direction (shocker). Para offers up a nice cutter on the 3/4th though, so there's that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Kevin will say "my goodness this thread was unreadable last night" I love a good cutter, some nice cold prior and after or maybe we can just trend toward torching from January 7'th on. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I still love the pattern going forward. It kind of sucks to miss 12/30 if that's where it ends up heading. But I'm not going to judge this pattern on the first attempt. There should be multiple shots in the next two weeks. If we are shutout and looking bleak on models on January 10th, then I'll be ready to start worrying. But then again, I'm probably more patient than most weenies as long as the pattern looks favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 GEM (which had been showing a hit) is now south. Not much of anything in the area. About ready to pull the plug on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I still love the pattern going forward. It kind of sucks to miss 12/30 if that's where it ends up heading. But I'm not going to judge this pattern on the first attempt. There should be multiple shots in the next two weeks. If we are shutout and looking bleak on models on January 10th, then I'll be ready to start worrying. But then again, I'm probably more patient than most weenies as long as the pattern looks favorable. Agree 100%. I was just setting Jan 10 as a deadline myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 It was not dead on or we'd have been much wetter. That was an active pattern with a neg AO vs last years low level +.Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Agree 100%. I was just setting Jan 10 as a deadline myself. Yeah 1/10 is probably a good deadline, have been saying 1/5 was the time when I'd revisit my winter forecast but I think we'll have a much better idea by 1/10 of where this is heading one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I've been saying 1/10 for 2 weeks. But at this time I'm feeling ok that real winter is just ahead of us. Point being that. If despite the guidance we come to 1/10 empty we may want to consider the ratter portential. As of all the guidance I'm seeing, it looks good for the first half of January. One has to hope the Atlantic does it's share at some point. The EPO conintues in the longer range GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Man.. This thread is out of control.. Someone should start January to get some fresh juju going. Sent from my iPhone Agreed and done: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45226-january-2015-discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Everyone's favorite new model at 6z is a decent hit pike south with close to .50 all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 The 6z parallel GFS has two waves of low pressure, has both the 30th event and 1st event. Although its slightly out to sea currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I'm not throwing in the towel on the first event yet, I believe it could still be an advisory snowfall for some, mainly south of the pike if it does materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Giving up here . Worst case scenario keeps playing out. Finally get our pattern change ... to cold and dry. It will still snow some because it is New England but my ground will be bare on jan 1 for the first time I think since I moved here in 2008. Disappointing winter. Could have a nice stretch at some point I guess, but another 6-8 week winter sucks. I hope March is warm and I can plant early. Another winter and weenie biting the dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I apologize to everyone for fixing my snowblower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Personally, I hope the Euro is right and it completely whiffs. All set with a s of pike event after enduring 12 consecutive rainers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 If 12/30 does (likely) miss. people in the southern third of CT will have only of few trace snowfalls. Only about 2-4" in elevation for the rest of the southern half of CT all season..Ouch!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Look at the warmth ahead of this system . Sometimes the models have the tendency to underestimate the strength of the ridge and the warmth and bring the cold front too far south and suppress a system only to bring it back in the near term. The northern stream system intensifying will bring down the cold air and push the cold front through but if the push is not quite as much as modeled and the southern stream wave is a bit more amped than SNE could see some type of light-to moderate event we will have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I apologize to everyone for fixing my snowblower Brand new Ariens for me. Winter of futility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I've been saying 1/10 for 2 weeks. But at this time I'm feeling ok that real winter is just ahead of us. Point being that. If despite the guidance we come to 1/10 empty we may want to consider the ratter portential. As of all the guidance I'm seeing, it looks good for the first half of January. One has to hope the Atlantic does it's share at some point. The EPO conintues in the longer range GEFS.Jerry, you are far too quick on the ratter trigger. 2012-'13 was very meager heading into mid January. I think that the higher end thoughts may need to be reevaluated at that point, but I wouldn't go overboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Brand new Ariens for me. Winter of futility. lol. You should have invested in a more efficient hose to run your tailpipe into your car. The first one looked like it had a few leaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I apologize to everyone for fixing my snowblower LOL. Plow services who have people locked in contracts FTW. Just took a drive into the hinterlands, still several inches of snow and temp at 29* up there at 1500' and higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 LOL. Plow services who have people locked in contracts FTW. Just took a drive into the hinterlands, still several inches of snow and temp at 29* up there at 1500' and higher. I know people (mostly commercial) who are "locked" in, but that doesn't mean that they pay a monthly fee or anything. It just means that they get plowed by a specific contractor for a storm, and are guaranteed to get plowed. If it doesn't snow, they don't pay. Anyone locked in to some shifty deal where they are paying but not getting plowed are idiots, and deserve to lose their money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Jerry, you are far too quick on the ratter trigger. 2012-'13 was very meager heading into mid January. I think that the higher end thoughts may need to be reevaluated at that point, but I wouldn't go overboard.Its becoming increasingly unlikely of a blockbuster winter. Ideas of around 50-60 inches are where people should start wrapping heads around. Anything higher than that this year is going to be unattainable since we lost a whole month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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