CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2014 Author Share Posted December 26, 2014 I'm not saying I buy it(and in fact don't), but we've certainly seen quick flips before and I don't think that's a valid reason to toss them. However, this Makes sense. LR guidance now in pretty good agreement on a cold first third of January with a -EPO pattern and chances, I think by the 5th-10th or so we'll see where this pattern will take us, what it looks like going forward, and what the strat has done by that point and that should give us a decent idea of where we're heading for the rest of the month. I don't see how it breaks down that quick. Week 4 actually goes back to higher heights in AK again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I don't see how it breaks down that quick. Week 4 actually goes back to higher heights in AK again.appears the Egg nog affects computers as well as humans. Week 3 after this?, ya I'll take that bet,it's wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2014 Author Share Posted December 26, 2014 Look at the EPO building at hr 360 valid 12/23 vs hr 312 vs today, 12/25. Only almost a complete 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Speaking of the Strat, yea yet another piece of evidence the Euro weeklies hit the crack pipe week 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2014 Author Share Posted December 26, 2014 Well look, I'm not saying it won't weaken, but seems a little overreacting IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Well look, I'm not saying it won't weaken, but seems a little overreacting IMO.well that is around thaw period would not be surprised at a relaxation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I'm worried about the 12/30 event as most models support some form of precip over the region. GFS is warmest with the front passing through and the main precip shield moves to the southeast, and the euro has a lack of a system as it is far southeast. The GGEM is most consistent with a 4-8" snowstorm hitting the region south of the MA Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 It looks like the best we can hope for this winter is a pattern flip a la February 2007, leading to copious sleet. Who wants to start a new thread titled, "Winter of 2015/2016, because it's never too early to speculate!"Stop acting like an idiot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Stop acting like an idiot.is it an act? Jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I'm worried about the 12/30 event as most models support some form of precip over the region. GFS is warmest with the front passing through and the main precip shield moves to the southeast, and the euro has a lack of a system as it is far southeast. The GGEM is most consistent with a 4-8" snowstorm hitting the region south of the MA Pike.worried? It is what it is, currently it isn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Ginxy, it currently is, not isn't. Only the EURO and GFS to an extent don't show support, they will come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Ginxy, it currently is, not isn't. Only the EURO and GFS to an extent don't show support, they will come around. It's tricky to say an event is when neither the EURO or the GFS support it. I wouldn't say it isn't considering it has support from the Para, UKIE, and GGEM(and the EURO did trend north with it), but it isn't really is yet either. Let's call it in limbo for now and see where we go over the next day or two of runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Fair enough, its in limbo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Ginxy, it currently is, not isn't. Only the EURO and GFS to an extent don't show support, they will come around.Only the Euro,Euro Ens,think about that a second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2014 Author Share Posted December 26, 2014 The Gulf Stream will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 The weeklies make no sense, by January 20th the MJO will likely be in phase 7 or 8 if you look at the Euro ensembles which have been pretty darn good with it so far....there is no way in hell it takes til the 10th of January for us to flip mild with it barreling through 4-5-6 before that...the lag response is not that long so either the weeklies are correct that we're gonna go mild and are simply too late on when its going to occur or they are just completely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 well that is around thaw period would not be surprised at a relaxation Like clockwork Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 well that is around thaw period would not be surprised at a relaxationThaw from what? The one week long first half of winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 We should count December as the thaw the never ending one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2014 Author Share Posted December 26, 2014 I think we'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Thaw from what? The one week long first half of winter?lol good point although talk to me about Jan 21, normal thaw period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Man.. This thread is out of control.. Someone should start January to get some fresh juju going. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Last year in late December and early Jan I ranted about the winter just sucking wind and was told to be patient.....there was some rebound and winter dud show for a few weeks but it wasn't long before the Forsythia bloomed.....with a few min left on this holy night before the 0z GFS comes out i'd just ask for a few reassuring words from the vets on here....Ginxy and Fella perhaps....that all is not lost....suks so bad that December has been lost....in a short 6 weeks we'll be whistling Dixie on a light SW breeze wondering WTF happened to winter....not a lot of time left folks....before you know it Morch will be here and we'll be holding our collective weenies in our hands wondering how we got here.... Waiting For Winter....Worse than Last Year..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 This month just needs to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Didn't we have a bit of help from the remains of Pinatubo that winter? And wasn't that winter dead-on with 2013-4? I.e. polar vortex with raging +NAO? It was not dead on or we'd have been much wetter. That was an active pattern with a neg AO vs last years low level +. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 How much snow has BOS seen this month? Just wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 How much snow has BOS seen this month? Just wondering 0.3" from some OES on the 9th They've recorded snow on 8 days(which is probably above average), but 7 of them are T's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 well that is around thaw period would not be surprised at a relaxation Relaxation? Seems like we've been in relaxation mode most of the season thus far. But I suppose high 50's and low 60's are climo for this time of year. December 25th, and time to punt the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Regular GFS still focuses on the first wave and has light rain to maybe SHSN for SNE, nothing on the second wave that the other models have. Para isn't quite out far enough yet, but I think it'll look good, was noticeably stronger with the energy early on compared to the 18z run and a more amplified look overall then that run I think(which still brought advisory totals for most of SNE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Regular GFS still focuses on the first wave and has light rain to maybe SHSN for SNE, nothing on the second wave that the other models have. Para isn't quite out far enough yet, but I think it'll look good, was noticeably stronger with the energy early on compared to the 18z run and a more amplified look overall then that run I think(which still brought advisory totals for most of SNE).Thanks for answering my last question. My next question is when does the para GFS become the only gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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