TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Para has the 29-30 system still. Weaker than 12z but still there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 The 30th is going to lay down a couple inches region wide. All the signals are there. 1-3 2-4 whatever. It'll bring some snow and then we can work on getting the Early Jan storm south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 Eh, I wouldn't get excited about the 30th. If it happens awesome, but I wouldn't lose sleep Over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Actually the incision and dissolvable sutures on my head...lol. Taking the picture blind...lol. Geez... Don't beat yourself up over winter just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Sounds like it's moving slowy east AWT.At the very least it should keep the -EPO in place. Looks like the ensembles were to fast in breaking the ridge down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 The 30th is still cuttable IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 The 30th is still cuttable IMHO.wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Merry Christmas but what fun is that, hobby is 50% modeled storms lol, Not looking at models, That is at least 50% of the hobby, Its like a fix to me when they come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 You aren't gonna avoid this pattern without cutter potential. See last year. All I care about is what happens near AK and if any -NAO develops. Which cutter...the 3rd/4th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I recall talk on Cohen's blog about a quasi stationary LP (somewhere in Asia) that was mucking up the -NAO potential (about 3 weeks ago) is this still a current feature (if anyone knows what I am referencing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 lol, Not looking at models, That is at least 50% of the hobby, Its like a fix to me when they come outWhen they are this unstable, I'd rather just put myself through it. You still get the general idea reading the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 When they are this unstable, I'd rather just put myself through it. You still get the general idea reading the thread. Eh, I look either way, Its part of the hobby for me, Plus i like to see what others are seeing, At least the ones that are credible......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 The 30th is still cuttable IMHO. I think that is kind of off the table at this moment. Unless we see a huge swing with guidance tonight, I think the risk of this getting crushed south is greater than cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 The gfs now clips eastern areas with a storm on the 1st as well. Seems like we are going to have chances. Para has a nice cutter on the 3/4th. Thats the risk with the pattern. Reminds me of last year a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Ponder this: If we can pull off that 12/30 storm it's almost a dead ringer going forward to 1993-94 with the brief relaxation/cutter followed by massive reload and cold and snow. I'm not saying I expect this verbatim but it is kind of uncanny...Didn't we have a bit of help from the remains of Pinatubo that winter? And wasn't that winter dead-on with 2013-4? I.e. polar vortex with raging +NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2014 Author Share Posted December 26, 2014 Which cutter...the 3rd/4th? Just speaking in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 The 30th system is more in jeopardy of sliding to the south then cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2014 Author Share Posted December 26, 2014 I recall talk on Cohen's blog about a quasi stationary LP (somewhere in Asia) that was mucking up the -NAO potential (about 3 weeks ago) is this still a current feature (if anyone knows what I am referencing) Yeah in NW Asia. This is why you can't always run with some sort of index in October and treat it as gospel. It also is only meant to explain the AO and not NAO. I did think odds would favor a pretty good negative AO and maybe that happens alater tHis month, but it's clear it won't be as negative predicted by Eurasian snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 The gfs now clips eastern areas with a storm on the 1st as well. Seems like we are going to have chances. Para has a nice cutter on the 3/4th. Thats the risk with the pattern. Reminds me of last year a bit I wish we could ban the word "pattern" from the board discourse. I think it leads to lots of misconceptions. People want to lump weather into a handful of recognizable and repetitive categories. But that's just not how it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 From HM on Twit, take it with a large grain of salt considering that they've been terrible in weeks 3-4 this winter. User Actions Follow Anthony Masiello@antmasiello New ECMWF weeklies are a blowtorch Jan 12-25. Merry xmas I don't know if I'd call it a blowtorch, but it's an above normal look with a strengthening SE ridge and nothing to keep cold locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I see a pattern here. Please take it elsewhere I wish we could ban the word "pattern" from the board discourse. I think it leads to lots of misconceptions. People want to lump weather into a handful of recognizable and repetitive categories. But that's just not how it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I wish we could ban the word "pattern" from the board discourse. I think it leads to lots of misconceptions. People want to lump weather into a handful of recognizable and repetitive categories. But that's just not how it works.actually that is how it works when looking at a generalized overview of the world If you are looking at your back yard of course a similar 5h setup can yield different results. Research had shown that teleconnections yield similar physical results. No argument Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 How do things look 200h out? Anything we can get our hopes up for only to have them crushed as time moves forward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 For those who worried that Santa storm wouldn't help change up the pattern because it fizzled, its now 968 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 From HM on Twit, take it with a large grain of salt considering that they've been terrible in weeks 3-4 this winter. User Actions Follow Anthony Masiello@antmasiello New ECMWF weeklies are a blowtorch Jan 12-25. Merry xmas I don't know if I'd call it a blowtorch, but it's an above normal look with a strengthening SE ridge and nothing to keep cold locked in. Check out Mike Ventrice's feed ( I am not sure if I can re-post his maps). Not so much a blow torch...RATHER a COAST-TO-COAST OPEN-HEARTH BLAST FURNACE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2014 Author Share Posted December 26, 2014 Well anyone with a brain will see that the end of the euro ensemble and then the forecast for the avg 850 temp 7 days later is the opposite. Something that drastic simply won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 It looks like the best we can hope for this winter is a pattern flip a la February 2007, leading to copious sleet. Who wants to start a new thread titled, "Winter of 2015/2016, because it's never too early to speculate!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2014 Author Share Posted December 26, 2014 So the heights go from above to below to Above In AK. Yeah ok. Classic weeklies. Meanwhile the week 1 and 2 forecasts have trended over 200 meters higher in AK compared to Monday's forecast. Good luck dry jumping those forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Check out Mike Ventrice's feed ( I am not sure if I can re-post his maps). Not so much a blow torch...RATHER a COAST-TO-COAST OPEN-HEARTH BLAST FURNACE! I mean anything is possible but I'm a little skeptical of those kind of anomalous positive departures showing up in W Central Canada in mid-January. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 From HM on Twit, take it with a large grain of salt considering that they've been terrible in weeks 3-4 this winter. User Actions Follow Anthony Masiello@antmasiello New ECMWF weeklies are a blowtorch Jan 12-25. Merry xmas I don't know if I'd call it a blowtorch, but it's an above normal look with a strengthening SE ridge and nothing to keep cold locked in. Well anyone with a brain will see that the end of the euro ensemble and then the forecast for the avg 850 temp 7 days later is the opposite. Something that drastic simply won't happen. I'm not saying I buy it(and in fact don't), but we've certainly seen quick flips before and I don't think that's a valid reason to toss them. However, this So the heights go from above to below to Above In AK. Yeah ok. Classic weeklies. Meanwhile the week 1 and 2 forecasts have trended over 200 meters higher in AK compared to Monday's forecast. Good luck dry jumping those forecasts. Makes sense. LR guidance now in pretty good agreement on a cold first third of January with a -EPO pattern and chances, I think by the 5th-10th or so we'll see where this pattern will take us, what it looks like going forward, and what the strat has done by that point and that should give us a decent idea of where we're heading for the rest of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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