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Ending out December with a Potential Pattern Change


CoastalWx

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Below normal to start Jan is all but a lock on that euro run. Happy Festivus.

 

Looks like a fropa on the 29th ushers in the change. Below normal to start Jan. Winter finally starts.

 

2nd or the 3rd there is a low over Chatham that would be a good snow event. Front end thumper/SWFE. North of the pike type of thing. Good CNE storm. Looks like snow to sleet. Most of SNE gets a good chunk of snow front end.

 

I'd buy a track like that. High pressure offers some nice CAD for the northern areas.

 

I shouldn't have to say this.. but because of the bufoonery in here recently.. take it with a grain of salt. Just posting what the model shows. Don't expect it. Focus on that cold pattern the euro shows, not the storms. Let's usher in colder temps before focusing on storms.

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WPC has it

WPC PROGS

MAINTAIN DECENT CONTINUITY WITH A LOW FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST

STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN/MON. TEMPS SEEM COLD ENOUGH FOR A

BAND OF SNOW ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE PCPN SHIELD FROM THE OH

VALLEY TO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST

Misses sour. Enjoy the grass. I know I will.

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Don't know if the NAVGEM maintained it's progressive bias since it upgraded from the NOGAPS, but if it did, it's a red flag against the more suppressed solutions considering that it's so far north with the 30th that most of SNE flips to rain and it's congrats PF verbatim. Otherwise it's just a terrible model and should be tossed.

 

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all!

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Not really sure what to think about the 30th storm. Seems like most guidance has trended meh with that at this point.

Wonder if our first real event of sorts pops up in the medium range or comes back after disappearing.

I could do without suppression and then a cutter being the storm we do get. Just have too see how it shakes out.

I'm pretty much with some others here. If we get to 1/10 without a widespread plowable event, I think its time to start tempering expectations.

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Don't know if the NAVGEM maintained it's progressive bias since it upgraded from the NOGAPS, but if it did, it's a red flag against the more suppressed solutions considering that it's so far north with the 30th that most of SNE flips to rain and it's congrats PF verbatim. Otherwise it's just a terrible model and should be tossed.

 

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all!

 

The 12Z NAM appeared to take a step towards being amplified at the end of its run.

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