CT Rain Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 OKX with an absurd pwat of 1.81"!! You can see on the water vapor loop the wild tropical connection from the equatorial Pacific, across the GOM and up the east coast. That 1.81" would be the 2nd highest November PWAT or 3rd highest May PWAT. By far the highest in December, January, February, March or April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 OKX with an absurd pwat of 1.81"!! Feels tropical out there. Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 2 is a high PWAT value for summer storms right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 No one PWATs like Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 Well 564+ thicknesses so that warm Air can hold moisture. I have some nice drizzle to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Well 564+ thicknesses so that warm Air can hold moisture. I have some nice drizzle to show for it.Endless drizzle here the past 2 days with occasionally some heavier showers today.39/38. Just watched Charlie Brown Christmas with my little guy and he thinks Lucy is riot. As we watched I had the realization that, weather wise, Lucy didn't pull the ball away from us this December, she never even showed up with the damn ball. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 61 degrees at 9:15 Christmas Eve Whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 If we do go into a splt flow pattern the GFS actually has a tendency to overphase I find more often than not or at least end up bringing things too far north...its the one type of regime where the GFS sometimes ends up not being overly suppressed or progressive. The timing of these disturbances is when the high is really making its way south and the tendency has been progressive this year so I don't know if I buy any of these yet. Well, I hope you're wrong, but that does make sense. I thought however, that the storm(s) progged for this time period we're supposed to be SWFEs, which makes me think of PD2 (Presidents Day storm of 2003), which was also a SWFE and which supressed on the GFS until the last 24 hours. I guess I'm assuming that we can't have a SWFE on a split flow.. Correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 45.5F with drizzle Radar looks meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I see there have only been 3 QBO seasons with it being this strongly negative...interestingly enough 2 of the 3 did a 180 from December to January while the other (74-75) did not change at all but 65-66 and 05-06 turned on a dime....I wonder if we'll see the same here. Is there hope for this QBO to weaken or what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 So the very small sample size suggests we flip as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Is there hope for this QBO to weaken or what Does it matter this late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 It should weaken I think, but again...too much of a scape goat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I see there have only been 3 QBO seasons with it being this strongly negative...interestingly enough 2 of the 3 did a 180 from December to January while the other (74-75) did not change at all but 65-66 and 05-06 turned on a dime....I wonder if we'll see the same here.1965-66", along with 1986-'87, are actually the two analogs that I looked at in considering my update for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 everyone ready for the 0z GFS dart throw (passed day 4) maybe this could be run from a weenies basement. Or maybe it will break down EPO ridging and bring 70's past day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Impressive. Still 60o at 11pm on Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 If we do go into a splt flow pattern the GFS actually has a tendency to overphase I find more often than not or at least end up bringing things too far north...its the one type of regime where the GFS sometimes ends up not being overly suppressed or progressive. The timing of these disturbances is when the high is really making its way south and the tendency has been progressive this year so I don't know if I buy any of these yet. Well, I hope you're wrong, but that does make sense. I thought however, that the storm(s) progged for this time period we're supposed to be SWFEs, which makes me think of PD2 (Presidents Day storm of 2003), which was also a SWFE and which supressed on the GFS until the last 24 hours. I guess I'm assuming that we can't have a SWFE on a split flow.. Correct me if I'm wrong. I'm interested in the answer to that as well. Although, I would imagine you can have an swfe in a split flow that never phases and stays oriented on either the northern or southern branch?? Again, would also like clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Para is a bit more tame with the 29th or so event. Still a nice advisory snowfall for the area. Biggest event for many of the season (lol). Regular gfs is even more of nothing this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Lol gfs has snow on the texas mexico border and SNE hasn't seen a flake on this run through 200 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Lol gfs has snow on the texas mexico border and SNE hasn't seen a flake on this run through 200 hours Nor through 384 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Nor through 384 hours. Semantics, but it has a nice little event around the 3/4th. I mean its way out there, but we do get some snow this run. Last run was nothing. Again it's really not even worth discussing after about 200 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Para and gfs both have the 3/4th system. Para is a rainer though. Not that it really matters. Merry Christmas all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 That's a good looking pattern on the GFS though. You'll gamble with that anytime. Even the 12/30 setup looks decent. Get a little more energy ejecting out of the southwest and you are looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I agree Will, the pattern looks really cold and there are storms present. With a little more energy ejecting out of the southern Plains we get a bigger 30th event and even an 1st event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 That's a good looking pattern on the GFS though. You'll gamble with that anytime. Even the 12/30 setup looks decent. Get a little more energy ejecting out of the southwest and you are looking good. I'm definitely not tossing the 30th yet. That has been a period signaled for a little bit now. I'm more concerned of a whiff or weak junk at this point, not the storm cutting west. It would be pretty funny if we erase the garbage December snow deficit on the last day or the year lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 GEFS look ok for the 30th. The thing is, the cold drives so deeply to the south, the response is to try and raise heights in the east. Of course it could dig SW into New Mexico and then the top half of the trough moves over us and shuts it south of SNE..but You definitely want to gamle with the cards dealt. You ain't gonna hit 'em all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Nor through 384 hours.there's a snowstorm at 252? Hitting the egg nog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 GEFS look ok for the 30th. The thing is, qhwn the cold drives so deeply to the south, the response is to try and raise heights in the east. Of course it could dig SW into New Mexico and then the top half of the trough moves over us and shuts it south of SNE..but You definitely want to gamle with the cards dealt. You ain't gonna hit 'em all. I thought you were MPM but no QPF questions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I thought you were MPM but no QPF questionscocked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 cocked? Nope, clowns lol. Phone FTL. Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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