jamesnichols89 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 There is definitely more separation between the southern stream disturbances on the 18z GFS than 18z NAM. Whether or not this corrects itself, it should have some implication as to the overall result occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 A big -EPO ridge is a very good thing. As far as the NAO there is some indication of a SSW event occurring so perhaps the NAO goes negative soon. Anyone know how the se ridge is looking on the ensembles being squashed?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Ensembles especially the EURO ensembles show some return of the SE ridge as the trough retrogrades back towards the Midwest US. Anyways it looks like there wants to be a phase between the northern stream and southern stream disturbances for the 29-30th event of the 18z GFS, again its the 18z GFS and has shown numerous flip flops over the last two days of runs regarding this system along with the EURO and GGEM. SO we won't know until within 2 days from the event, maybe by Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 18z GFS nothing but light SHRA, 18z Para GFS however is an advisory event for most of SNE starting at hour 117, much further north from the 12z run and regular GFS. Interesting that it moved the timing back to the 29th from the 30th. Para is also colder with the clipper/overunning stuff on the 28th allowing NNE to be snow there, so pretty much everyone wins verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Para looks like its cooking up a little snow event mainly for the pike south on the 29-30 Gfs has nothing in that period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Trough the 2nd or so, the gfs crushes just about everything to the south. It does have some storms though, that is nice to see. Looks like the para is all in for happy hour today. Has the 28-30 event. Then it has a pretty sizeable snow event for the area on the 1st and 2nd, another potential period of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 i remember deep snowcover.. And lots of events,, and some cold events at the surface . But I'm pretty sure many of them ended as sleet or ice. Philly area I def remember the ice stormswe snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 In a few weeks it's para or nothing from the GFS suite fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 That's pretty damned cold at day 15. But the pattern supports it. Big EPO ridge Any help on the Atlantic side by that point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 18z GEFS liked the 29th/30th quite a bit more than the op GFS did, several members with really nice solutions for pretty much everyone in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 18z GEFS liked the 29th/30th quite a bit more than the op GFS did, several members with really nice solutions for pretty much everyone in this forum. The 18z op GFS is a horror show. Total shutout through D16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The 18z op GFS is a horror show. Total shutout through D16. Yeah, it was pretty bad. Everything crushed well south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Yeah the 18z GFS yesterday showed a perfect snow solution for us on the 31st, and now has nothing on the next day's 18z run, goes to show you no run to run consistency going on now, there won't be any until the energy is sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Gfs will often lose storms in the mid range, only to bring tbem back later, so we should start seeing something of significance return for around 1/1 soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 The 18z op GFS is a horror show. Total shutout through D16. It really did make me chuckle to see that. I'm glad we managed the Thanksgiving storm. What I thought had been an appetizer may have been the whole meal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Any mets seen this post?. http://www.wxrisk.com/the-return-of-the-firehose/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 Any mets seen this post?. http://www.wxrisk.com/the-return-of-the-firehose/ Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 The 18z op GFS is a horror show. Total shutout through D16. No support from anything else really(including it's upgraded cousin and it's ensembles) for that sort of pattern going forward(cold and dry), but if it did end up verifying, we'd be seeing a lot of these I'm sure around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 DT brings up some good points...however some of the features pointed out in the post look much less hostile today. It's a case of volatility in the models. Even the ensemble mean. The EPO ridge reloads quite strong on today's ensembles (both EC and GEFS) rather than breaking down and weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 GYX breaks the all time December PWAT record. 1.42" tonight (breaking 12/6/73 1.39"). Also the highest of any winter month (obviously that doesn't include Morch). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Gfs will often lose storms in the mid range, only to bring tbem back later, so we should start seeing something of significance return for around 1/1 soon. If we do go into a splt flow pattern the GFS actually has a tendency to overphase I find more often than not or at least end up bringing things too far north...its the one type of regime where the GFS sometimes ends up not being overly suppressed or progressive. The timing of these disturbances is when the high is really making its way south and the tendency has been progressive this year so I don't know if I buy any of these yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 GYX breaks the all time December PWAT record. 1.42" tonight (breaking 12/6/73 1.39"). Also the highest of any winter month (obviously that includes March). Impressive! Colder weather soon but I love anomalous stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 I think it's easy to blame a strongly negative QBO, but we've had high values before and we really don't know what numerical value or trend is good for blocking vs not good etc. We just know the physics behind it. No season is ever perhaps perfect with the QBO, it's values at 30mb and 50mb and then combined with the trend. The models have been differing with the tropical forcing location and that has created issues too. It's definitely gotten better over the last two days like Will said. You always have a good Pacific jet in an El Niño. I do see the points brought up, I guess I'm just not quick to blame it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 GYX breaks the all time December PWAT record. 1.42" tonight (breaking 12/6/73 1.39"). Also the highest of any winter month (obviously that includes March). Pretty neat, love seeing stuff like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 GYX breaks the all time December PWAT record. 1.42" tonight (breaking 12/6/73 1.39"). Also the highest of any winter month (obviously that includes March). Make sure you spray Ekster with champagne in celebration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I think it's easy to blame a strongly negative QBO, but we've had high values before and we really don't know what numerical value or trend is good for blocking vs not good etc. We just know the physics behind it. No season is ever perhaps perfect with the QBO, it's values at 30mb and 50mb and then combined with the trend. The models have been differing with the tropical forcing location and that has created issues too. It's definitely gotten better over the last two days like Will said. You always have a good Pacific jet in an El Niño. I do see the points brought up, I guess I'm just not quick to blame it. I see there have only been 3 QBO seasons with it being this strongly negative...interestingly enough 2 of the 3 did a 180 from December to January while the other (74-75) did not change at all but 65-66 and 05-06 turned on a dime....I wonder if we'll see the same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Make sure you spray Ekster with champagne in celebration. CHH does as well. I saw SPC has the GYX PWAT at 1.38"... different calculation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 PWHAT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 CHH does as well. I saw SPC has the GYX PWAT at 1.38"... different calculation? NSHARP calculates it at 1.38", but UWyo, UAlbany, UCAR/NCAR, and our own MAN/SIG levels plotted in Raob calculate 1.42". I really don't know what the right answer is now. I'm guessing SPC will roll with their NSHARP for all sounding climatology stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 OKX with an absurd pwat of 1.81"!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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