Ending out December with a Potential Pattern Change

[Brian5671]

If it's 1/10 and we're singing this tune I'll think about tossing the winter. But I don't see that as probable.

Fair point.  By then, much of January would be gone (assuming models showing warmth on 1/10)

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

The pattern change is coming, but that unfortunately doesn't HAVE to mean snow.

That's the problem...people think, I used to, a pattern change equates to snow. I know now you can get snow from a crap pattern and none from a good one...small samples can skew ones perception but I'll take my chances from a good pattern any day.

[CoastalWx]

Well snow goose said 28-29 could be flat so good call so far .

[ORH_wxman]

Just saw the 12z suite for the first time. Pretty nice look for 12/29 through 1/3 for at least one threat and possibly two.

The first one for late Dec is starting to look a lot like some of the Jan 94 setups.

[powderfreak]

I would have rather it offered up a snowy solution obviously, but any single deterministic solution will not elicit much emotion from me one way or another over the course of the next few days.

 

This.  I'm not stoked that the Euro had a Day 9 snowstorm up here, lol, I'll tell you that much.  Every single run has been different beyond day 4-5.  Every single op run.  Even the ensembles have been all over the place.

 

The change to colder is coming.  That's pretty much a lock.  Snow is not a lock though and never is.  Even 48-hours out its no promise that it has to snow.

 

Tip had some very valid points earlier, too.  Could see it go colder but still just grazing with light events every few days.  We probably aren't getting that 1-1.5" QPF snow bomb some may be looking for out of this pattern.  It strikes me as a nickle and dime type pattern where if it lines up right, you get like 3 advisory storms in a row but no warning big dog event.

[Damage In Tolland]

Nice to get some solid met analysis about what the runs really showed today rather than throwing selves under Rudolphs hooves about rainers, cutters and shearing

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

This. I'm not stoked that the Euro had a Day 9 snowstorm up here, lol, I'll tell you that much. Every single run has been different beyond day 4-5. Every single op run. Even the ensembles have been all over the place.

The change to colder is coming. That's pretty much a lock. Snow is not a lock though and never is. Even 48-hours out its no promise that it has to snow.

Tip had some very valid points earlier, too. Could see it go colder but still just grazing with light events every few days. We probably aren't getting that 1-1.5" QPF snow bomb some may be looking for out of this pattern. It strikes me as a nickle and dime type pattern where if it lines up right, you get like 3 advisory storms in a row but no warning big dog event.

The snow bombs are coming, in Feb. Until then, lets nickel and dime our way to a dollar.

[CoastalWx]

People are going to go grey analyzing threats in this pattern 6+ days out.

[ORH_wxman]

People are going to go grey analyzing threats in this pattern 6+ days out.

Yep. Good luck figuring out these impulses in the fast flow that far out.

That gradient look is really starting to look '94ish for a time though so I'm starting to like our chances for something. It might not work out but it's as good a setup a we've had this cold season.

[weathafella]

People are going to go grey analyzing threats in this pattern 6+ days out.

Too late...

Leon is dressing up to let us know he hasn't quite retired.

[Damage In Tolland]

Why can't I recall how 94 was south of the pike? Vaguely recall a lot of good snow events that ended as ice. Is that right?

[N. OF PIKE]

Perhaps another "cliff notes post from Will" on the upcoming weather pattern

Probably would not be a bad idea every 36-48 hrs or so in this period where solutions past 72-84 hours are fantasy and change every run. What should we be taking from models past day 4 ...anything? EPO ridging trends ? Anything not subject to giant swings in this fast flow

[CoastalWx]

Yep. Good luck figuring out these impulses in the fast flow that far out.

That gradient look is really starting to look '94ish for a time though so I'm starting to like our chances for something. It might not work out but it's as good a setup a we've had this cold season.

Yeah the pattern overall looks decent. I'm not going to worry about details in op runs this far out. I'll take my chances with the cold.

[CoastalWx]

How the the EC ensemble look overall?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Why can't I recall how 94 was south of the pike? Vaguely recall a lot of good snow events that ended as ice. Is that right?

That's how I remember it. I was in NJ at the time and even there we had a nice pack with solid ice on top for weeks. And the hits kept coming.

[Damage In Tolland]

That's how I remember it. I was in NJ at the time and even there we had a nice pack with solid ice on top for weeks. And the hits kept coming.

i remember deep snowcover.. And lots of events,, and some cold events at the surface . But I'm pretty sure many of them ended as sleet or ice. Philly area I def remember the ice storms

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

i remember deep snowcover.. And lots of events,, and some cold events at the surface . But I'm pretty sure many of them ended as sleet or ice. Philly area I def remember the ice storms

I recall alot of ice. Events where it was 28f and heavy zr. At least in CNJ. Don't know how you guys did in SNE. I'd imagine more snow and sleet.

[eyewall]

As I said the Grinch Storm is a morale crusher given so this bad model run has caused a bit of a meltdown.

[ORH_wxman]

EC ensembles rebuild the EPO ridge after New Years after the quick "fold over" relaxation. Looks impressive.

[CoastalWx]

EC ensembles rebuild the EPO ridge after New Years after the quick "fold over" relaxation. Looks impressive.

Good to hear. I'm on the road so can't see it.

[weathafella]

How the the EC ensemble look overall?

Cold with reload at the end of the run. Chances are there for snow.

[N. OF PIKE]

Why can't I recall how 94 was south of the pike? Vaguely recall a lot of good snow events that ended as ice. Is that right?

I recall listening to Elliot Abrams WBZ saying "north of pike" "pike dividing line" etc but i was in 8'th grade.

[weathafella]

I recall listening to Elliot Abrams WBZ saying "north of pike" "pike dividing line" etc but i was in 8'th grade.

BOS banked 96.3. Epic. Snow otg and deep most of the winter.

[ORH_wxman]

That's pretty damned cold at day 15. But the pattern supports it. Big EPO ridge

[Damage In Tolland]

So based on Ens.. What are dates of possible snow?

[powderfreak]

As I said the Grinch Storm is a morale crusher given so this bad model run has caused a bit of a meltdown.

 

I thought the 12z GFS and ECMWF looked fine to pretty darn good.  At some point we (up here) have to accept that yes, some storms will be suppressed because it does snow in SNE in January, lol.  But I don't think this pattern looks like one that's going to go weeks on end of suppression so I wouldn't get hung-up on that.  The chances will be there, just gotta get through the next 5 days or so to have a clearer look.  I think our first chance will be near the New Year.

[ORH_wxman]

So based on Ens.. What are dates of possible snow?

Not even really worth trying to pin dates down in this patten. But you got the dec 30-31 threat and then perhaps something around 1/2-3. Beyond that who knows but it is a pattern that should be active with plenty of cold around. There's certainly a risk of taint tho with the lack of Atlantic blocking.

[powderfreak]

So based on Ens.. What are dates of possible snow?

 

Not much has changed from the past day or two.  I wouldn't get caught up in exact dates. 

[powderfreak]

Not even really worth trying to pin dates down in this patten. But you got the dec 30-31 threat and then perhaps something around 1/2-3. Beyond that who knows but it is a pattern that should be active with plenty of cold around. There's certainly a risk of taint tho with the lack of Atlantic blocking.

 

That's why I'm not fearing suppression up here in the long term.  With no blocking, any relaxation will allow stuff to work pretty far north, especially if a high is moving off to the east.  This progged pattern with a big pig of a -NAO could be congrats mid-atlantic, lol.  But without it, south of NYC may be in trouble.  I think this should be active for all of us on the whole.  I still think it looks like a SWFE type pattern of WAA over-running and good surface cold oozing south.

[jamesnichols89]

I think the New Year's event is a coastal storm, while the 30th event is a frontal wave.