Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 LOL! come on ... it's barely afternoon... Yeah, my sister's husband's parents (which makes us essentially nothing..) have invited me to Xmas eve ham dinner... S'posed to be there at 3:30. Then, tonight my other sister wants me to go to my parents house for 8pm lobsters and spirits. Then, ...of course tomorrow... What about Kim? Will you be able to see her? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Mahk gaht jokes....Mahk gaht jokes for days and days.... I think I have been on a roll lately, but noone seems to notice! Thank you....I feel seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Euro loses the Mon-Tuesday event sheared out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 EURO lost the first wave, now just a sheared out mess of light rain showers for all on Sunday. Looks decent at hour 126 through with things organizing in the MW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 i usually discount it until I see what the Euro does that day. Then you know whether it has an ounce of validity or not Ruh roh rev Euro loses the Mon-Tuesday event sheared out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 Big surprise, it goes to one event instead of two events within 36-48 hrs. Par for the course. No reason to panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 This might be like the GFS para and wait until 1/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Coastalwx: "I want a big azz snowstorm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 what a beast of a high dropping down the plains on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Coastalwx: "I want a big azz snowstorm" Take a break, please. This might be like the GFS para and wait until 1/1. Looks like it, nice system at hour 198 but it's probably going to be rain(Although who cares at this lead time). Got to say though, don't like seeing the trend of deamplifying events as they approach hour 120 continuing. Something needs to snap that soon or else it's going to be lots of weak warm rainy messes until it does snap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 what a beast of a high dropping down the plains on this run 1054mb+ in Wyoming. Congrats New Mexico and Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 Wow, that's cold in TX. Congrats DFW through AMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 EURO looks to flatten out the -EPO D6 on, don't like seeing that at all. Without the EPO, nothing to keep us cold really with +NAO and +AO. Insane cold in the west this run, we'd probably see records broken with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Yeah euro lost the 29th system. The system on the first and second looks kind of similar to what the Para has. Verbatim looks warm for SNE. Another run, another set of solutions. Not tossing in the towel yet on the 29th. Dont think that is going west at this point though, if there is even a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 We go through this all the time. This flow is a nightmare for models, especially if that rough digs that far south. I mean look at it. That's a beast. If that is off even slightly...that throws a wrench into the modeled forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Very icy appeal with that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I hate ice storms, I think they are overrated and suck, I never experienced one, nor do I ever want to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I hate ice storms, I think they are overrated and suck, I never experienced one, nor do I ever want to. I've experienced them. Nothing like a cold dark house during the holidays.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 ugly run today from the Euro. Hoping it's wrong....Merry Christmas all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 euro is the christmas grinch today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 Here we go. Weenie angst. Hit the egg nog and relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I would have rather it offered up a snowy solution obviously, but any single deterministic solution will not elicit much emotion from me one way or another over the course of the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Here we go. Weenie angst. Hit the egg nog and relax. You can only say it's coming for so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 EURO ens coming in north of the op for the D4.5 overrunning(Although it still misses us to the south), and also looks more defined with the followup SWFE deal at hour 120 in terms of not holding as much energy back and digging it less into the SW, we'll see what happens with that but I think it could look decent on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I would have rather it offered up a snowy solution obviously, but any single deterministic solution will not elicit much emotion from me one way or another over the course of the next few days. my concerns: Every threat craps out within 5 days, no -NAO or -AO, and cold either dumps west or is delayed. Your sentiments do make sense, models struggling with different solutions each day, but the big question is how does this ultimately break? A few weeks ago there was hope for cold and snow around 12/26, now we're out to 1/1 at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 You can only say it's coming for so long.The pattern change is coming, but that unfortunately doesn't HAVE to mean snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 The pattern change is coming, but that unfortunately doesn't HAVE to mean snow. There are several people about to throw themselves in front of Santa's sleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Pretty good signal for the 30th on the EURO ens, lots of spread(Anywhere from a cutter to OTS and everywhere in-between on the individuals), but the overall look isn't bad and is much nicer than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 There are several people about to throw themselves in front of Santa's sleigh. If you did that, you'd have no shot at 100,000 posts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 my concerns: Every threat craps out within 5 days, no -NAO or -AO, and cold either dumps west or is delayed. Your sentiments do make sense, models struggling with different solutions each day, but the big question is how does this ultimately break? A few weeks ago there was hope for cold and snow around 12/26, now we're out to 1/1 at best If it's 1/10 and we're singing this tune I'll think about tossing the winter. But I don't see that as probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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