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Ending out December with a Potential Pattern Change


CoastalWx

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The 12z GFS is a great illustration of the risk that we run in this type of pattern, as Tip alluded to, much to the chagrin of Kevin.

These eclectic, blase solutions have not really been endemic to any one particular model, either.

I think every model has had at least one renegade soloutin of that ilk over the course of the past few days.

Well when almost every met says it's going to be a very active and stormy period, I know which side of the fence I'm on
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i usually discount it until I see what the Euro does that day. Then you know whether it has an ounce of validity or not

I think that even a usually iron clad approach like that will be met with a limited measure of success in the medium range of a pattern like this, though.

The EURO has been prone to some run-to-run variation, as well.

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Whateva guys ( :cheers:)  ...but I think you will find that my word choice is entirely clad, and used properly in context for their root definitions, ...if perhaps that use goes deeper than the 1st preferential definition --

 

ahaha.  

 

I may not be logged in from this afternoon until ...maybe Friday, but Merry bad-ass, phat Xmas for everyone!

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Well when almost every met says it's going to be a very active and stormy period, I know which side of the fence I'm on

Yes, but "active and stormy" merely implies that there will be plenty of opprtunities. This speaks nothing of the potential ratio of sucess to failure of said chances.

Tip simply went the extra mile and not only explained how we succeed, but how the vast majority of those chances may also fail.

Some do not like to hear the latter, so ignorance is bliss, I guess.

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Well when almost every met says it's going to be a very active and stormy period, I know which side of the fence I'm on

Sure, we can all can agree that it looks like an active pattern setting up.  Where does the boundary set up though?  That is far from being determined at this juncture.  Could be south of us, could be north of us, it could be on top of us.  No one knows at this point.

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Yes, but "active and stormy" merely implies that there will be plenty of opprtunities. This speaks nothing of the potential ratio of sucess to failure of said chances.

Tip simply went the extra mile and not only explained how we succeed, but how the vast majority of those chances may also fail.

Some do not like to hear the latter, so ignorance is bliss, I guess.

 

 

Sure, we can all can agree that it looks like an active pattern setting up.  Where does the boundary set up though?  That is far from being determined at this juncture.  Could be south of us, could be north of us, it could be on top of us.  No one knows at this point.

 Yes, this, too.

This is the larger threat, imo...I find it hard to believe that everything will be surpressed, so it's probably more a qualitative issue than quantitative. haha

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Yes, but "active and stormy" merely implies that there will be plenty of opprtunities. This speaks nothing of the potential ratio of sucess to failure of said chances.

Tip simply went the extra mile and not only explained how we succeed, but how the vast majority of those chances may also fail.

Some do not like to hear the latter, so ignorance is bliss, I guess.

Bingo. Well said.

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Yes, but "active and stormy" merely implies that there will be plenty of opprtunities. This speaks nothing of the potential ratio of sucess to failure of said chances.

Tip simply went the extra mile and not only explained how we succeed, but how the vast majority of those chances may also fail.

Some do not like to hear the latter, so ignorance is bliss, I guess.

None of that is iron clad. None of it
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There was nothing wrong with what John said. Jeez.

 

Kevin as of late really seems to be caught up in the midst of a kind of protracted, yet smoldering (lesser obvious) melt-down... It's playing out over days, instead of the one time Ned Flanders type of neurological explosion... 

 

In this paradigm of psychosis ... the patient experiences micro-lapses in their ability to perceive reality.  However, such events go unnoticed ... making it somewhat harder to detect, compared to the overt exposure of the more typical spiritual super nova.  

 

The lack of winter expression in the airs ...particularly for those that lack the mental faculties for the baser scientific model of the weather, becomes a personal affair (attack) upon them.  They know, though, that it is wrong to lash out upon others, so they cap it. And the pressure, it grows ... and grows... 

 

Remember, as one fills the void of the unknown with knowledge and experiential-derived wisdom, the fear of the unknown is eased in direct proportion.  Since Kevin consummately exposes his complete and utter (either) inability to do so, or unwillingness, he is a thus left to his own devices as a walking time bomb for weather-induced frustration. And that container is hissing at about 150 decibels right now. 

 

Something quite similar to what Michael Beans character suffered in the movie, "Abyss", where he was stricken in the throws of deep sea psychosis, but was hiding from others. It effected his judgement and ...sadly, ultimately resulted in his removal as an active cast member in the latter portion of the film...  

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Can't say I hate the look moving forward. 12z GEM is another good example what can happen if things break right.

Has the 29-30 system, and then another low fallowing right on its heels (looks suspect to me), also has what looks like a late bloomer towards the end of the run that would give some snow.

Para also has a system that crushes NNE on the first and second.

Before anyone jumps down my throat, it can and will change, just pointing out it looks like we will have chances

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Well when almost every met says it's going to be a very active and stormy period, I know which side of the fence I'm on

Hopefully Santa brings you better posting skills. Everyone in this thread appears to be on the same page except you getting upset that people even mention there's a chance we don't cash in.

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Whateva guys ( :cheers:)  ...but I think you will find that my word choice is entirely clad, and used properly in context for their root definitions, ...if perhaps that use goes deeper than the 1st preferential definition --

 

ahaha.  

 

I may not be logged in from this afternoon until ...maybe Friday, but Merry bad-ass, phat Xmas for everyone!

 

 Welcome back.

Kevin as of late really seems to be caught up in the midst of a kind of protracted, yet smoldering (lesser obvious) melt-down... It's playing out over days, instead of the one time Ned Flanders type of neurological explosion... 

 

In this paradigm of psychosis ... the patient experiences micro-lapses in their ability to perceive reality.  However, such events go unnoticed ... making it somewhat harder to detect, compared to the overt exposure of the more typical spiritual super nova.  

 

The lack of winter expression in the airs ...particularly for those that lack the mental faculties for the baser scientific model of the weather, becomes a personal affair (attack) upon them.  They know, though, that it is wrong to lash out upon others, so they cap it. And the pressure, it grows ... and grows... 

 

Remember, as one fills the void of the unknown with knowledge and experiential-derived wisdom, the fear of the unknown is eased in direct proportion.  Since Kevin consummately exposes his complete and utter (either) inability to do so, or unwillingness, he is a thus left to his own devices as a walking time bomb for weather-induced frustration. And that container is hissing at about 150 decibels right now. 

 

Something quite similar to what Michael Beans character suffered in the movie, "Abyss", where he was stricken in the throws of deep sea psychosis, but was hiding from others. It effected his judgement and ...sadly, ultimately resulted in his removal as an active cast member in the latter portion of the film...  

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Can't say I hate the look moving forward. 12z GEM is another good example what can happen if things break right.

Has the 29-30 system, and then another low fallowing right on its heels (looks suspect to me), also has what looks like a late bloomer towards the end of the run that would give some snow.

Para also has a system that crushes NNE on the first and second.

Before anyone jumps down my throat, it can and will change, just pointing out it looks like we will have chances

 

Mmm, the details on that run are a riot..  -32C at 850mb down to Des Moines Iowa ?!  Zoinks... That would rival if not surpass what took place out thatta way last winter.  

 

Yeah that's a good solution for how to maintain some activity amid a crush-job flow construct.  It almost hearkens like a "standing wave" sort of event... What I mean by that is, it's not parented along by a S/W passing through, but the L/W is anchored such that a very intents gradient can result amid the boundary, and with 500mb flow being on the west side of said lower tropospheric gradient, it's like a long duration ANA event.  fascinating really.. 

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 Welcome back.

 

LOL!  come on ... it's barely afternoon...   

Yeah, my sister's husband's parents (which makes us essentially nothing..) have invited me to Xmas eve ham dinner... S'posed to be there at 3:30.  Then, tonight my other sister wants me to go to my parents house for 8pm lobsters and spirits.  Then, ...of course tomorrow... 

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12z GGEM has a nice snowstorm for southeast Texas at the end of it's run...lol close to snowing on the Gulf beaches.

 

I mentioned this awhile ago... but, I'm wondering if there's not an icing risk inherent to this set up of having continental cold wedge with 500mb static flow blowing over top.... It may bring a warm layer or two over the edge of that dome - no?

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