Typhoon Tip Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Well the vast majority of us don't have time to read your War and Peace posts so we just skim them. (Hint) In summary.. You are favoring a mostly cold and dry period while not ruling out smaller light 1-3 inch events Not ruling out events, period. I did not qualify. And no -- you have a fault of glossing over every post, regardless of length or style of the poster you are reading.. It's why when you respond, I don't usually read your posts at all, because it is hand-throwing at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Not ruling out events, period. I did not qualify. And no -- you have a fault of glossing over every post, regardless of length or style of the poster you are reading.. It's why when you respond, I don't usually read your posts at all, because it is hand-throwing at times. Well I don't believe any of that since you respond to just about all my posts. Anyway.. I agree with most that this looks like a very active period for us@ryanhanrahan: Looking at the long range pattern we've got a stormy and much colder/wintry weather regime setting up. It will be busy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 Well the Gradient Pattern plays games again. Continued from last night's runs..looks like the 29th seems off the table on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Well I don't believe any of that since you respond to just about all my posts. Anyway.. I agree with most that this looks like a very active period for us @ryanhanrahan: Looking at the long range pattern we've got a stormy and much colder/wintry weather regime setting up. It will be busy! I do think a stormy/active period is likely with several shots of wintry weather. Could wind up that we're on the wrong side of the gradient which would suck but I definitely think active is likely with some shots of decent cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I will take my chances with a split flow 10 ways till Sunday over this current garbage of a pattern. Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 That year was special for eastern New England... hugely augmented totals from a lot of persistent onshore flow, resulting from repeating nascent polar highs migrating N of our latitude. This also set up overrunning events as the primary event type (similar to discussed above). But the combination of those two in the means allowed for above to much above normal snowfall/wintry type precipitation events. If you look at the distribution of the anomalies, one might notice a focusing of the along the coastal plain, and with some pockets of less, inland, "sort of" opposite typology. I know it's your job, but like a lot of other folks here, how the heck do you pull all this detail off your head from 20yrs ago. I work in a lab and can't remember an experimental result from 1 yr ago unless I look in my notebook. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Well the Gradient Pattern plays games again. Continued from last night's runs..looks like the 29th seems off the table on the GFS. As it will every 6hrs. We'll see storms come and go as the confluence plays games and squashes systems. I'm going to preach patience till we get within 3-4 days of any potential threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I know it's your job, but like a lot of other folks here, how the heck do you pull all this detail off your head from 20yrs ago. I work in a lab and can't remember an experimental result from 1 yr ago unless I look in my notebook. Lol. Will, ORHwxman is uncanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Will, ORHwxman is uncanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 As it will every 6hrs. We'll see storms come and go as the confluence plays games and squashes systems. I'm going to preach patience till we get within 3-4 days of any potential threat. Well what I mean is that the actual event itself is probably off the table and perhaps more the 31, although the GFS shreds that this time too. Just more solutions in the days of weenie's lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 OT for SNE... but did anyone notice that quasi icestorm in the deep south that's been rattling around recent runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Will, ORHwxman is uncanny. Heh, he was responding to me, actually ... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Well the vast majority of us don't have time to read your War and Peace posts so we just skim them. (Hint) Tip's post are among the best in this forum, and are one of the reasons it's worth spending the time to wade through the pages and pages of otherwise uninformative stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Heh, he was responding to me, actually ... lol I know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Gfs has virtually nothing for the 28-29 timeframe and then scrapes with the next system around new years. Some light snow with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Typical mid range gfs playing with our hearts and minds. The 2 storms should trend north soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Will, ORHwxman is uncanny. Without a doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 Guys this is the stuff that happens in this fast flow environment. Don't even bother looking beyond day 5 then. 12z PARA is more like NYD for any storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Does anyone care what the GFS shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Does anyone care what the GFS shows? Bigger question is do you care what any model shows 7 day out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Well the vast majority of us don't have time to read your War and Peace posts so we just skim them. (Hint) In summary.. You are favoring a mostly cold and dry period while not ruling out smaller light 1-3 inch events then you should not comment on it.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I would take any model right now with a grain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Does anyone care what the GFS shows?You probably would if it showed a big hit IYBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 He's the only one saying that. Everyone else saying stormy period with plenty of chancesHe lays out his reasoning fairly well in that post and it has some validity to it.If it's not quite what you believe, say why you don't think that. Your post reads "Tip said something I don't like so I'll discount it and make sure everyone else does too." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 You probably would if it showed a big hit IYBY.i usually discount it until I see what the Euro does that day. Then you know whether it has an ounce of validity or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 He lays out his reasoning fairly well in that post and it has some validity to it. If it's not quite what you believe, say why you don't think that. Your post reads "Tip said something I don't like so I'll discount it." The 12z GFS is a great illustration of the risk that we run in this type of pattern, as Tip alluded to, much to the chagrin of Kevin. These eclectic, blase solutions have not really been endemic to any one particular model, either. I think every model has had at least one renegade soloutin of that ilk over the course of the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The 12z GFS is a great illustration of the risk that we run in this type of pattern, as Tip alluded to, much to the chagrin of Kevin. These eclectic, blase solutions have not really been endemic to any one particular model, either. I think every model has had at least one renegade soloutin of that ilk over the course of the past few days. You've really been hitting the Tip egg nog with the vocab lately. Bravo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 You've really been hitting the Tip egg nog with the vocab lately. Bravo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 You've really been hitting the Tip egg nog with the vocab lately. Bravo. Honestly, I've been preparing for the GRE to get back into grad school for the past several months, so I practice every chance I get. Taken it twice, but the third time is the charm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Typical mid range gfs playing with our hearts and minds. The 2 storms should trend north soon. Not to promote one's self ... but you should spend some time with the post I wrote awhile ago (above) that describes what is going on... This GFS run is spot on a reflection of those theoretical points as they are discussed in that post. And if one understood/stands it even intuitively, there really is no "playing with heart and minds" - as you say -- because expectations very much ought/should be held in check. Folks, you'd better lower appeals as correction for the time being. I guess ... whether you understand why or not, let's just forget that. Just go with the modus operandi of muting systems (perhaps not entirely...), meaning go weaker until further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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