CT Valley Snowman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I was referring mainly to the EC ensembles. There is a couple of big hits on them but most of them are a strong GLC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 i'm sure, yeah. better times ahead...just have to be patient and (probably) endure a couple more mediocre set-ups. I think that pattern modeled is great to have for January. Need to cool SSTs a bit. I like the look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 what is the GEFS looking like for the Christmas storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I will admit I hug the euro in the long term and weigh it more heavily I should have done a better job making sure I looked at all of the models on the Christmas storm but I don't really trust them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The Christmas storm is not an ideal setup but there is some high pressure that shows up in Quebec. Certainly there's a large portion of this subforum's members that could still see substantial frozen out of it. It needs a bit of work but unideal setups can succeed...esp away from the water and 200 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 When the snow maps show zilch it doesn't look good. Neither the euro nor the ensembles of the ecmwf show an ad isory event south of ORH Away from the ocean and NW of Boston by 40+ miles. He's not all snow nor are you by the euro solutions today. Im sorry but yes I am. Mets > you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Im sorry but yes I am. Mets > youDid you not report that the euro gives your snow? That doesn't seem subject to much interpretation...This is for the first event. Although euro ensembles were even worse for 12/24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Did you not report that the euro gives your snow? That doesn't seem subject to much interpretation... This is for the first event. Although euro ensembles were even worse for 12/24. As Will posted//Euro is all snow NW of BED to IJD line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 As Will posted//Euro is all snow NW of BED to IJD line 925 warms. You turn to rain before hr 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 The things look including CFS and weeklies, don't see why it can't go to at least the 20th. Those types of blocks are very stable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'd feel pretty good if I was in NNE for Christmas. I think the early season trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 FWIW, HM is starting to get excited about snow potential the first full week of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 FWIW, HM is starting to get excited about snow potential the first full week of Jan. There are signs of near NY and beyond, Can see it in the ensembles. Plus, you are obviously going to have chances. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to see that...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 We'll at least I can find some sanity here as the 21st storm thread is become untethered from the axis. 33/32. Light mist. Amazing how close to freezing it' s been with the recent precipitating events. Only a matter of time before the register starts ringing up wins. Hopefully starting Sunday out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 There are signs of near NY and beyond, Can see it in the ensembles. Plus, you are obviously going to have chances. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to see that...lol. Speficially, KU potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Speficially, KU potential. Only KU I can remember in the period is 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 There are signs of near NY and beyond, Can see it in the ensembles. Plus, you are obviously going to have chances. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to see that...lol. Well if the frequency of systems continues, and it gets colder, snow looks like a good bet haha. I like how we seem to get an event at least once a week, sometimes twice a week. That's the frequency that leads to nice seasonal totals even if they aren't all MECS type events. It's not like we are waiting 10-14 days for another shortwave to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I feel dumb asking this....but what is KU? Besides a big snowstorm that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I feel dumb asking this....but what is KU? Besides a big snowstorm that isKocin/Uccelini Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 I feel dumb asking this....but what is KU? Besides a big snowstorm that is Coined by Paul Kocin and Louis Ucellini. A large snowstorm affecting millions of people meeting usually in the 12"+ category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternWeather Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Now what is causing this? Notice the EC VP 200mb plots. You can see the eastward movement of various features, but the thing to take home is that the blues and greens represent areas of potentially rising air at 200mb and hence convection. Notice a surge of these greens pushing to 150E by the New Year. This is what helps force the ridge in AK. Convection here will cause heights to build downwind which is what we see in AK. This may weaken a bit heading to mid Jan, but by then who knows how things will continue. Could be a fun ride. EC MJO.gif Looks like it was previously asked, but I'm curious as well. Is the image you used above from a paid site? Excellent post btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The things look including CFS and weeklies, don't see why it can't go to at least the 20th. Those types of blocks are very stable.Great news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 Looks like it was previously asked, but I'm curious as well. Is the image you used above from a paid site? Excellent post btw It's from the ECMWF.int site, but not sure those are available to the public? I didn't think of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Coined by Paul Kocin and Louis Ucellini. A large snowstorm affecting millions of people meeting usually in the 12"+ category. East coast storms right? I know NESIS or whatever it is will grade all storms like Chicago blizzards but KU is only east coast millions affected right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 East coast storms right? I know NESIS or whatever it is will grade all storms like Chicago blizzards but KU is only east coast millions affected right? Yeah only the East. Frankly, I hate those terms for snow events. Like, who cares if it was NESIS 4 or 5 or whether it's a KU. It's usually what matters in your backyard. I'm not going to lose sleep at a NESIS 3 event vs a 4 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternWeather Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It's from the ECMWF.int site, but not sure those are available to the public? I didn't think of that. Hmm...could you link it? If it's accessible to the public, we'll know if we can get their via a link. Appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 East coast storms right? I know NESIS or whatever it is will grade all storms like Chicago blizzards but KU is only east coast millions affected right? There's RSI now for storms outside of the east. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/?nesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 Hmm...could you link it? If it's accessible to the public, we'll know if we can get their via a link. Appreciate it! http://www.ecmwf.int/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Yeah only the East. Frankly, I hate those terms for snow events. Like, who cares if it was NESIS 4 or 5 or whether it's a KU. It's usually what matters in your backyard. I'm not going to lose sleep at a NESIS 3 event vs a 4 event. Yeah its only meaningful if your backyard gets smoked. You could get 12" in a KU but 24" in a stationary freak band in some other random storm...and you're going to look back on the larger one much more fondly than the KU one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternWeather Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 http://www.ecmwf.int/ I was navigating the site earlier, just couldn't find the VP 200 product you had. May not be available to the public, or I just didn't navigate to the correct area. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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