Ending out December with a Potential Pattern Change

[jamesnichols89]

While I will agree about the frontal wave in which the SE ridge could force this to a location like over CNE, but I think the Polar Vortex wins out on the coastal storm for the 31-1st period.  WHat makes me a weather weenie?

[SnowGoose69]

Oh how we underestimate things. Lows will easily move up your fanny with SE ridges.

 

I could see the system being more SE solely because it may end up weaker, the tendency all fall so far and for the last few years has been the Euro overamping things a bit so it would not surprise me to see it flatter than the 12Z run and ensembles in the end.

[Ginx snewx]

Id trust the euro suite over the GFS suite on the SE ridge and just about any other feature at D5-6

of course save a horse, however infallible it may be let's see what this all looks like hr 96 and in like you preach to us all the time.

[ORH_wxman]

of course save a horse, however infallible it may be let's see what this all looks like hr 96 and in like you preach to us all the time.

Agreed. Plenty of time still.

Just saying which side I favor at the moment. If we can really press that James bay shortwave eastward out ahead of the main system in the south then we will be looking a lot more wintry.

[ORH_wxman]

I could see the system being more SE solely because it may end up weaker, the tendency all fall so far and for the last few years has been the Euro overamping things a bit so it would not surprise me to see it flatter than the 12Z run and ensembles in the end.

Yeah this is a good point too. Euro has been amp-happy in this timeframe so a bit weaker and the system has a better chance of getting crunched south of SNE.

There's a lot of moving parts. If previous SWFE type setups with a decent SE ridge has taught me over the years though is to hedge the uncertainty more northward.

We'll see what we got in another 2 days. There's still a lot of time.

[Ginx snewx]

Despite all the hype for superstorm Santa last week the Euro Ens has for 10 days maintained a 980 ish bombing north low. Amazing consistency as Op models superamped, deamped

[CoastalWx]

I could see the system being more SE solely because it may end up weaker, the tendency all fall so far and for the last few years has been the Euro overamping things a bit so it would not surprise me to see it flatter than the 12Z run and ensembles in the end.

Yeah clearly there are a lot of nuances in the flow that will determine the ultimate track. Just an educated guess and an idea of where my money is currently ( not that it means much 6 days out). You and Will both have good and valid ideas. Just a gut feel for something close by, but we will see.

[jamesnichols89]

980mbs on the ensembles is considered a bomb.

[dryslot]

Yeah I'd feel much better today if I lived in SNE than the past couple days.  Its getting close to too much PV near here, lol, but it'll certainly be cold.

 

Like i said nearby i don't mind, But i don't want to smell it

[dryslot]

I haven't looked at the Nogaps in wow , trying to remember. I do look at the wave watch model.

 

 A couple times over the years when it was the gonapps, And then when they made the switch a time or two, But that is as far as it went with that model

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The gfs is basically how we can cash in over the next 10 days or so.

[jamesnichols89]

Cutters only happen with lack of a strong PV over the Hudson Bay.  Ok lets say there was a -PNA, troughing in the west and ridging over the central US extending into the southeast and northeastern US.  Now depending upon orientation of the trough will determine where it goes negative and ends up tracking.  So without a PV over Hudson Bay acting as a block from lows heading towards the PV it cuts shortwaves southeast of the large blocking polar vortex.  So we will just have to check and see have the phase happens between the PV and northern and southern stream disturbances rocketing through the flow.

[powderfreak]

Like i said nearby i don't mind, But i don't want to smell it

Yeah, I don't want it prolonged like that, but for a period is fine. It'll help out our SNE brethren and it's time for them to get something worth shoveling, so having the PV nearby for a couple weeks isn't the worse thing to happen. Now if we get into it for like 6-8 weeks of -20C type H85s and dry as a bone, then that's a different story haha.

[mahk_webstah]

I see it has sped up to sun-mon. Does this mean we are tracking 3 possible events 31-1 and 2-3?

[Ginx snewx]

Well you don't know what you're talking about and aren't a met so that makes sense

I smelled a rat a long time ago,something fishy about Dan

[dan123]

Cutters only happen with lack of a strong PV over the Hudson Bay. Ok lets say there was a -PNA, troughing in the west and ridging over the central US extending into the southeast and northeastern US. Now depending upon orientation of the trough will determine where it goes negative and ends up tracking. So without a PV over Hudson Bay acting as a block from lows heading towards the PV it cuts shortwaves southeast of the large blocking polar vortex. So we will just have to check and see have the phase happens between the PV and northern and southern stream disturbances rocketing through the flow.

Not how it works james

[jamesnichols89]

Models have a +PNA pattern in place for the 30-31st system, also have some resemblance of a -AO regime in place with lack of SE Ridging, this favors a coastal storm.

[jamesnichols89]

GFS demolishes the SE ridge with the trough that enters the Great Lakes and Northeast US with the Polar Vortex.  This allows a shortwave to swing through the flow and amplify off the East Coast.

[CooL]

Cutters only happen with lack of a strong PV over the Hudson Bay.  Ok lets say there was a -PNA, troughing in the west and ridging over the central US extending into the southeast and northeastern US.  Now depending upon orientation of the trough will determine where it goes negative and ends up tracking.  So without a PV over Hudson Bay acting as a block from lows heading towards the PV it cuts shortwaves southeast of the large blocking polar vortex.  So we will just have to check and see have the phase happens between the PV and northern and southern stream disturbances rocketing through the flow.

 

what a brutal post, read it 5 times still don't get it 

[moneypitmike]

He always thinks cutters won't happen. Believe me I want a snowstorm on the coast but I don't see it with that SE ridge.

 

Did I read that you're from NL?  I lived there for 21 of the first 22 years of my life--Montauk Ave, near Mitchell College

 

One of the good things about New London is that you don't have have to worry if a storm's going to cut or not.  It's still going to be a rain storm or a snow to rain 85% of the time. 

 

35.3/35, the snow's nearly gone. 

[N. OF PIKE]

Man these models look cold next week, frigid.

 

18z gfs takes the Polar Vortex across Superior to Massena,NY than Northern Maine with it's pocket of sub -30 C 850's. Ya, natural gas still near it's MULTI YEAR LOWS, wonder how long that can last, just need a few more days of model consistency I think

[lakeeffectkid383]

First Christmas not spent in buffalo. Gonna be 60 degrees. Might go to misquamicut beach on Christmas

[OceanStWx]

hopefully GYX did today for the Newry area

 

What's 6" among friends?

 

I mean, wait...

 

[leo1000]

Scott what is up with all the negativity on the other forum saying that this pattern change is transient. That the negative QBO is a huge factor. DT calling for a return of the firehouse.

[CoastalWx]

Scott what is up with all the negativity on the other forum saying that this pattern change is transient. That the negative QBO is a huge factor. DT calling for a return of the firehouse.

What other forum? I think people overrate the QBO. Niño probably will come back and of the NAO stays positive it could be a firehouse, but who knows for sure. Maybe we get warming in the stratosphere come negative. I don't see a firehouse in the medium range anyways.

[CoastalWx]

We've had many winters with a strong and peaking -QBO. I don't understand how all of the sudden it's too strong. Doesn't make sense to me. The physics behind a -QBO are there so all of the sudden it reverses when it's strongly negative? Doesn't make sense to me.

[ORH_wxman]

00z GFS is Scooter's favorite type of high...branching from the plains...'93-'94-esque. Gives us a nice overrunning snow event.





The GFS solution is an example of how it's better to have the main energy hold back just a bit and let that cold establish itself before the storm tries to make its run northeast.


As mentioned earlier, we'll see a lot of timing differences I think over the next couple days as the model try and resolve all the pieces of energy in the fast flow.

[dryslot]

00z GFS is Scooter's favorite type of high...branching from the plains...'93-'94-esque. Gives us a nice overrunning snow event.

The GFS solution is an example of how it's better to have the main energy hold back just a bit and let that cold establish itself before the storm tries to make its run northeast.

As mentioned earlier, we'll see a lot of timing differences I think over the next couple days as the model try and resolve all the pieces of energy in the fast flow.

 

That is pretty much your classic textbook 07-08 SWFE type event

[ORH_wxman]

That is pretty much your classic textbook 07-08 SWFE type event

 

 

Man, we get our money's worth out of that longwave trough this run. After the SWFE, the trough keeps amplifying and it rips a pretty nice storm up the coast.

 

 

You can see how things could go right over the next 10 days to produce some decent events. Even though you have to still take the model verbatim solutions with a grain of salt right now on details, the more general picture emerges on how the pattern can produce.

[dryslot]

Man, we get our money's worth out of that longwave trough this run. After the SWFE, the trough keeps amplifying and it rips a pretty nice storm up the coast.

 

 

You can see how things could go right over the next 10 days to produce some decent events. Even though you have to still take the model verbatim solutions with a grain of salt right now on details, the more general picture emerges on how the pattern can produce.

 

Yeah, You really have to like the look going forward in the short term heading into early Jan with the PV dropping into the great lakes and moving east with the potential for snow here in the region with these s/w coming up from the south