powderfreak Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I don't know how far NW this can come..with that strong cold push at low levels it's going to be very hard for that to amplify NW..It likely won't be all snow in SNE..but there's going to a zone of significant icing with this somewhere The significant icing card seems over-played for an event that on the whole is looking to be light to moderate precip amounts. I guess it depends on what you are calling significant icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I had no idea what the NOGAPS model being amped meant anything, its a horrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The significant icing card seems over-played for an event that on the whole is looking to be light to moderate precip amounts. I guess it depends on what you are calling significant icing. Could be an 8-12 hour period of precip with .75-1.00 ..That would be enough if there was zr involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I think the frontal wave for the 29-30th period will be full of GOM moisture, I think timing and duration will be the problem. The 31st storm looks intense on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 No I don't think the wagons west option took a huge hit today. The SE ridge is real and you can't ignore it. Oh and NAVGEM is really amped. What's the rule when both the EURO and NAVGEM are amped? Nav gem? is amped when whales fart. Was the Euro Ens mean amped? Trends are deamplyifying. as you saw this week the Euro has been over amping everything in the 6-9 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The GFS is very amped with the 31/1st system on the coastline, no hugger or inland track with this air mass in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Lol. Happy hour in full swing. Happy new year on the gfs. Back to back snow events and the second one is a legit storm. Now let's hold that for a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Let's hold this pattern for the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I remember when the 18z gfs amped the grinch storm to extreme levels a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Nav gem? is amped when whales fart. Was the Euro Ens mean amped? Trends are deamplyifying. as you saw this week the Euro has been over amping everything in the 6-9 day range. Yes the EUro ens was amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 No I don't think the wagons west option took a huge hit today. The SE ridge is real and you can't ignore it. Oh and NAVGEM is really amped. What's the rule when both the EURO and NAVGEM are amped? I think its toss the Navgem and ride a horse............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Nice Epo , man game on for chances, storms and rumors of storms. as it should be. Crappy pattern cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Nav gem? is amped when whales fart. Was the Euro Ens mean amped? Trends are deamplyifying. as you saw this week the Euro has been over amping everything in the 6-9 day range. When Whales Fart...LMFAO...Ginxy that is classic. I laughed so hard when I read that!! Good One! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I think its toss the Navgem and ride a horse............ I haven't looked at the Nogaps in wow , trying to remember. I do look at the wave watch model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 When Whales Fart...LMFAO...Ginxy that is classic. I laughed so hard when I read that!! Good One! I feel bad for the Navy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 If the Euro comes in consistently amped by Christmas runs I will bite until then all options are on the table but leaning towards wagons west cancel. Heavy heavy cold air seepage JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Nice Epo , man game on for chances, storms and rumors of storms. as it should be. Crappy pattern cancel Yeah I'd feel much better today if I lived in SNE than the past couple days. Its getting close to too much PV near here, lol, but it'll certainly be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I feel bad for the Navy Ya me too...but the Whales Farting is still making me laugh. You pulled that one out of your Arse lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The great push of cold air eastward will not allow a westward tracking low pressure center up the East Coast. Instead a benchmark or eastward track of the coastal storm is much more plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I have a lot more faith in events after 12/28-29 for SNE...the airmass will be much better established. That said, it doesn't mean we can't get lucky in the 12/28-29 event. There's a chance with that one, but I'd feel better up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I have a lot more faith in events after 12/28-29 for SNE...the airmass will be much better established. That said, it doesn't mean we can't get lucky in the 12/28-29 event. There's a chance with that one, but I'd feel better up north. you think this system will trend farther west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Tornado fatalities suck bad especially this week. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I have a lot more faith in events after 12/28-29 for SNE...the airmass will be much better established. That said, it doesn't mean we can't get lucky in the 12/28-29 event. There's a chance with that one, but I'd feel better up north. I'm more interested in the new years storm. That has a better shot of being frozen IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 The great push of cold air eastward will not allow a westward tracking low pressure center up the East Coast. Instead a benchmark or eastward track of the coastal storm is much more plausible. Oh how we underestimate things. Lows will easily move up your fanny with SE ridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Jerry your boy is back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Scott, not with the PV where it is, the SE ridge will fight back, but not before we get a few shots at snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 Scott, not with the PV where it is, the SE ridge will fight back, but not before we get a few shots at snow.We see this quite a bit. Even with very cold air, no blocking means a strong s/w can cause it to come close in. You really want good Ak blocking and hints of a ridge trying to push into nrn Greenland like some models have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Oh how we underestimate things. Lows will easily move up your fanny with SE ridges. SE Ridge gets a ass kicking out to the Bahamas on the GFS suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 SE Ridge gets a ass kicking out to the Bahamas on the GFS suite to bad that won't happen. Not trying to troll but I've seen this happen before where these trend west in the final 24-48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Id trust the euro suite over the GFS suite on the SE ridge and just about any other feature at D5-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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