mahk_webstah Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 So it sounds as if there's one event now at month's end instead of 2? That always seems to happen when 2 events showing up on guidance so close together morph into 1 NO it's 3 events...Sunday/MOnday, Tuesday/Wednesday and then the Will blizzard of Jan 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It's too bad...because that is going to make it less likely we get a good snow event before the end of the month. I would have rather kept the 12/30-31 event on the table as the cold air was much better established by then. We'll want to hope that the event currently on the Euro slows down another 24 hours and really lets the cold establish itself...and does this without cutting. didn't you lecture us about day 6 specifics? Confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It seems to be hinting reload at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 didn't you lecture us about day 6 specifics? Confused How is that specific? I am using terms like "less likely". We are "less likely" to get a snow event if the storm rides up the boundary before the cold air is established. Now does "less likely" mean it can't snow? Last I checked it did not. In fact, the verbatim solution was a good shot of snow before mixing, but I "prefer" the storm to happen a bit later when the cold air is established...this would make it "more likely" to be snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 How is that specific? I am using terms like "less likely". We are "less likely" to get a snow event if the storm rides up the boundary before the cold air is established. Now does "less likely" mean it can't snow? Last I checked it did not. In fact, the verbatim solution was a good shot of snow before mixing, but I "prefer" the storm to happen a bit later when the cold air is established...this would make it "more likely" to be snow here. ah gotcha,most of us use those terms anyways. Looks more likely low level cold air gets established on the Ens providing the less likely occurrence of this being a rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It seems to be hinting reload at the end of the run.Jerry are you referring to day 15? Also Strat split looks great leading to a more likely chance of neg AO.NAO for the second half of Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 ah gotcha,most of us use those terms anyways. Looks more likely low level cold air gets established on the Ens providing the less likely occurrence of this being a rainer. To me that's a screaming big ice concerns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Those dudes worrying about ice on NNE ponds.... Might be a bit dicey on the larger/deeper ponds for the Jan 1 icefishing opener, though 2 dayas later on Saturday might well make all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Jerry are you referring to day 15? Also Strat split looks great leading to a more likely chance of neg AO.NAO for the second half of Jan Yeah d14-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 To me that's a screaming big ice concernstoo early get this inside 96 and then evaluate,lots of volatility,more suppressed or wagons north not unrealistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 ah gotcha,most of us use those terms anyways. Looks more likely low level cold air gets established on the Ens providing the less likely occurrence of this being a rainer. Yeah my issues on 6-7 day progs are really for those dissecting QPF and rain/snow lines as if 50-100 miles means anything at that timeframe...we can make general statements about what is more or less likely depending on certain features or timing. I think that is fair game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Nothing like a nice ice storm to kick off winter soon after the solstice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 GFS is a nice event. This probably will be a congrats PF soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 All out snowstorm on the Goofus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Think this will trend west in coming days SE ridge argues for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 All out snowstorm on the Goofus Well you would think that we are Due...something has got to give you would hope...maybe this is it?? That would be a nice late Xmas present for all!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Think this will trend west in coming days SE ridge argues for it. Unless there is no ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yeah, I'd like to lock in the gfs solution for the 30th please lol. Even looks to hang snows back a bit. That would go a long way for a lot of posters on this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Boy Cad really never allows Grinch much warmth in NNE, great news for Christmas vacation folks, one day rainer and its out. Limited damage with maybe some backside frozen, turned out to be a pretty sweet week for those peeps. Nice snowstorm for Maine resorts today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yeah, I'd like to lock in the gfs solution for the 30th please lol. Even looks to hang snows back a bit. That would go a long way for a lot of posters on this forum That would go a long way for a lot of posters on this forum It sure would!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Unless there is no ridge? There's a good one just off the SE coast there...and that's the 144 panel....rewind that about 18-24 hours. It will be a battle between the SE ridge and that impressive shortwave swinging east from James Bay to provide the confluence. Both of those features ar eon the Euro and GFS...those two, along with any nuances in the main shortwave associated with the storm itself will determine the outcome...rewind it back to 2007 through 2009...fun model chaos in fast flow gradient patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 lol, Hr 204 on the GFS, Lock it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 There's a good one just off the SE coast there...and that's the 144 panel....rewind that about 18-24 hours. It will be a battle between the SE ridge and that impressive shortwave swinging east from James Bay to provide the confluence. Both of those features ar eon the Euro and GFS...those two, along with any nuances in the main shortwave associated with the storm itself will determine the outcome...rewind it back to 2007 through 2009...fun model chaos in fast flow gradient patterns. The SE ridge is moving OTS on the GFS negating its effect, in fact the para is suppressed. Similar to our retreating high only this time its a retreating SE ridge. Great runs today, very encouraging. The wagons west option took a huge hit today, hopefully that trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Para has basically nothing. Looks like it has the storm but its south and we get little to no moisture. Maybe some light rain or snow south of the pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 Happy hour on this run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I don't know how far NW this can come..with that strong cold push at low levels it's going to be very hard for that to amplify NW..It likely won't be all snow in SNE..but there's going to a zone of significant icing with this somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 There's a good one just off the SE coast there...and that's the 144 panel....rewind that about 18-24 hours. It will be a battle between the SE ridge and that impressive shortwave swinging east from James Bay to provide the confluence. Both of those features ar eon the Euro and GFS...those two, along with any nuances in the main shortwave associated with the storm itself will determine the outcome...rewind it back to 2007 through 2009...fun model chaos in fast flow gradient patterns. Fast flow and 6-hour events (thumps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The SE ridge is moving OTS on the GFS negating its effect, in fact the para is suppressed. Similar to our retreating high only this time its a retreating SE ridge. Great runs today, very encouraging. The wagons west option took a huge hit today, hopefully that trend continues. Well you are more optimistic than me...I don't favor suppression right now, though perhaps that will change if things look strong up north. This doesn't scream to me that amped up westward solutions took a hit today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The SE ridge is moving OTS on the GFS negating its effect, in fact the para is suppressed. Similar to our retreating high only this time its a retreating SE ridge. Great runs today, very encouraging. The wagons west option took a huge hit today, hopefully that trend continues. No I don't think the wagons west option took a huge hit today. The SE ridge is real and you can't ignore it. Oh and NAVGEM is really amped. What's the rule when both the EURO and NAVGEM are amped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Para has a 1052 intermountain high out west with 2 m temp anomalies of -30, in Jan thats super impressive, whole country going into the freezer. Pickles natty gas futures fTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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