CT Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Any Met RIP and reading is going to have issues. Yup. Definitely go colder/snowier than guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDls5C4a_kU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 This is how we do it On Monday night Most are white Dumbfounded south of the Pi-ike. ....this is how we do it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yup. Definitely go colder/snowier than guidance. Start on the high side of accumulations and we can always cut back if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 07-08? No thank you. I was def. at the wrong latitude that year. The difference between NNE and SNE was tremendous so NNE would def. like to see that analog. Not entirely. I had above normal snow. About 30 miles south of me was the dividing line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Not entirely. I had above normal snow. About 30 miles south of me was the dividing line. I finished about 10" above climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I finished about 10" above climo. BOS had about that departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Start on the high side of accumulations and we can always cut back if needed.you know exactly what I mean. Going to love seeing forecasts for that period tonight. They wanted to go seven days now they got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 BOS had about that departure. I had 79" that winter...it was pretty decent in the pike region even though we endured our share of taint. December was pretty special though...BOS narrowly missed their record for that month (27.7" vs 27.9" record)..if March hadn't shat the bed (we missed a couple chances that month), the winter woul have gone from solid and respectable to pretty damned good in our latitude band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I had 79" that winter...it was pretty decent in the pike region even though we endured our share of taint. December was pretty special though...BOS narrowly missed their record for that month (27.7" vs 27.9" record)..if March hadn't shat the bed (we missed a couple chances that month), the winter woul have gone from solid and respectable to pretty damned good in our latitude band. Step one is always cold air. Really can't get anything done without it. Get cold air first, then futz with the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Climo that year but relating one storm to an entire season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I had 79" that winter...it was pretty decent in the pike region even though we endured our share of taint. December was pretty special though...BOS narrowly missed their record for that month (27.7" vs 27.9" record)..if March hadn't shat the bed (we missed a couple chances that month), the winter woul have gone from solid and respectable to pretty damned good in our latitude band. I only missed my December record by like an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yup. Definitely go colder/snowier than guidance.hopefully GYX did today for the Newry area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Climo that year but relating one storm to an entire season? Just reminsicing as a means by which to grasp an understanding of how exactly that pattern may play out. I don't think anyone is claiming '07-'08 should be the main seasonal analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Just reminsicing as a means by which to grasp an understanding of how exactly that pattern may play out. I don't think anyone is claiming '07-'08 should be the main seasonal analog. I was reacting to Friweathers post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Climo that year but relating one storm to an entire season? Yeah our entire season def won't be like that year...well it already can't be given the absolute polar opposite December patterns...but years like that might give a glimpse into what type of events to expect in the next couple of weeks. It is definitely important to remember though that even a similar pattern won't produce the same results...both for amounts and demarcation zone of good vs bad snowfall. What it can give us an idea of though is that the events in the next couple weeks are likely to be fast movers, have a gradient (wherever that ends up being), and the models will do a poor job at handling them until about 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Those dudes worrying about ice on NNE ponds.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 I think this time around an AK ridge is better than a dateline ridge too. Less negative of a PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Colds legit it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 At first glance, EURO ensembles are north of the 0z ensembles but south of the op for the D6 wave. Couple key things to note is that timing is faster(By hour 138-144 good QPF is over the area as opposed to 150-156 for the op), spread is very high, and in general they are more enthused than the 0z ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 EC ensembles have the same system on 12/29 as the OP run...looks pretty similar too. Spread looks fairly large though which isn't surprising. I still like that one further north as it occurs a little early for my tastes in the cold establishment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 EC ensembles have the same system on 12/29 as the OP run...looks pretty similar too. Spread looks fairly large though which isn't surprising. I still like that one further north as it occurs a little early for my tastes in the cold establishment. Yeah was just looking at that. Plenty of the EPS members have it but as you mention the spread is huge. Can't rule out a rainer unfortunately but this storm has a bit of a chance for something fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 That one on the 29th has some of the looks of a decent ice storm with the low level cold firmly established but not as much mid and upper levels until NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 EC ensembles are liking the cold for around New Years and a little after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 EC ensembles are liking the cold for around New Years and a little after. And then? (to be read in the voice of the Chinese takeout lady from celebrated American cinema classic, "Dude Where's My Car?") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 And then? (to be read in the voice of the Chinese takeout lady from celebrated American cinema classic, "Dude Where's My Car?") LMAO!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 And then? (to be read in the voice of the Chinese takeout lady from celebrated American cinema classic, "Dude Where's My Car?") Hint of a storm threat around 1/2-1/3...the key word being "hint". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 So it sounds as if there's one event now at month's end instead of 2? That always seems to happen when 2 events showing up on guidance so close together morph into 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 So it sounds as if there's one event now at month's end instead of 2? That always seems to happen when 2 events showing up on guidance so close together morph into 1 It's too bad...because that is going to make it less likely we get a good snow event before the end of the month. I would have rather kept the 12/30-31 event on the table as the cold air was much better established by then. We'll want to hope that the event currently on the Euro slows down another 24 hours and really lets the cold establish itself...and does this without cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Hint of a storm threat around 1/2-1/3...the key word being "hint". Well, considering that we're within the 9 day range, it's pretty much locked in that nothing will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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