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Ending out December with a Potential Pattern Change


CoastalWx

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BOS had about that departure.

 

I had 79" that winter...it was pretty decent in the pike region even though we endured our share of taint.

 

December was pretty special though...BOS narrowly missed their record for that month (27.7" vs 27.9" record)..if March hadn't shat the bed (we missed a couple chances that month), the winter woul have gone from solid and respectable to pretty damned good in our latitude band.

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I had 79" that winter...it was pretty decent in the pike region even though we endured our share of taint.

 

December was pretty special though...BOS narrowly missed their record for that month (27.7" vs 27.9" record)..if March hadn't shat the bed (we missed a couple chances that month), the winter woul have gone from solid and respectable to pretty damned good in our latitude band.

 

Step one is always cold air. Really can't get anything done without it.

 

Get cold air first, then futz with the rest.

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I had 79" that winter...it was pretty decent in the pike region even though we endured our share of taint.

 

December was pretty special though...BOS narrowly missed their record for that month (27.7" vs 27.9" record)..if March hadn't shat the bed (we missed a couple chances that month), the winter woul have gone from solid and respectable to pretty damned good in our latitude band.

I only missed my December record by like an inch. 

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Climo that year but relating one storm to an entire season?

 

Yeah our entire season def won't be like that year...well it already can't be given the absolute polar opposite December patterns...but years like that might give a glimpse into what type of events to expect in the next couple of weeks.

 

It is definitely important to remember though that even a similar pattern won't produce the same results...both for amounts and demarcation zone of good vs bad snowfall.

 

What it can give us an idea of though is that the events in the next couple weeks are likely to be fast movers, have a gradient (wherever that ends up being), and the models will do a poor job at handling them until about 3 days out.

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At first glance, EURO ensembles are north of the 0z ensembles but south of the op for the D6 wave. Couple key things to note is that timing is faster(By hour 138-144 good QPF is over the area as opposed to 150-156 for the op), spread is very high, and in general they are more enthused than the 0z ens.

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EC ensembles have the same system on 12/29 as the OP run...looks pretty similar too. Spread looks fairly large though which isn't surprising.

 

I still like that one further north as it occurs a little early for my tastes in the cold establishment.

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EC ensembles have the same system on 12/29 as the OP run...looks pretty similar too. Spread looks fairly large though which isn't surprising.

 

I still like that one further north as it occurs a little early for my tastes in the cold establishment.

 

Yeah was just looking at that. Plenty of the EPS members have it but as you mention the spread is huge. Can't rule out a rainer unfortunately but this storm has a bit of a chance for something fun. 

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So it sounds as if there's one event now at month's end instead of 2? That always seems to happen when 2 events showing up on guidance so close together morph into 1

 

 

It's too bad...because that is going to make it less likely we get a good snow event before the end of the month. I would have rather kept the 12/30-31 event on the table as the cold air was much better established by then.

 

We'll want to hope that the event currently on the Euro slows down another 24 hours and really lets the cold establish itself...and does this without cutting.

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