HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Sometimes the wait makes it even better... After this grinchy funny business flipping into a winter blast would be a ton of fun. I have had weekly 34F rainers patiently knowing that it is just a matter of time before a payout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 Euro amped up again. More of a classic SWFE with snow to mix/rain SNE, snow NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Nice snow event north of the Pike on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Almost drawn out of the 2007-2008 winter...that depiction on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Lol...euro fits the pattern while GFS carries the lunchbox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Nice look for 6 days out, get that inside 120 with pressing cold HP and evolving pattern. Good vibe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 there's a lot of sleet mixed in that storm. all the way up to CNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 there's a lot of sleet mixed in that storm. all the way up to CNE Keep. Talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Weatherbell has a canadien hires now. Will be interesting to see how it performs. It's been running as the GEM-LAM for a few years now I think but only ran once per day to hour 24, this summer they upgraded it to a full cycle(4x daily) and to hour 48. It used to be excellent for it's limited range and was a great tool to use in borderline events, but don't have enough sample size now to know how it's been doing now that it's a "real" model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Almost drawn out of the 2007-2008 winter...that depiction on the Euro. We got 140+ that winter. We meaning me, Brian, Jeff and Eric. I personally invite that winter to enter the door, as I only got to see the huge piles in January as we came to view the house we bought and moved into on March 31 that year. At that point there was 2 feet on the level left. Clearly we moved in 5 months too late. There is a best case taking shape here....07-08 transitioning to week-mod Nina climo with blocking for Feb-Mar. I feel cautious but could envision that progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 there's a lot of sleet mixed in that storm. all the way up to CNE front end dump in a progressive system coming into a cold airmass FTW. Some sleet but after the dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 front end dump in a progressive system coming into a cold airmass FTW. Some sleet but after the dump.talking specific P type 150 hrs out FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I don't mind pellets if I get some solid snow first. I know many here have this almost anaphylactic reaction to sleet, but I definitely don't mind it...as long as it's not like 70%+ of the qpf in the system. At any rate, there's going to be a lot of different looks on that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Nice snow event north of the Pike on Monday. Almost drawn out of the 2007-2008 winter...that depiction on the Euro. North of pike we snow. South of pike we pray. This is how we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Any sleet is good. 3-6 then ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 talking specific P type 150 hrs out FTL Well but it is Forky. But we know how SWFEs work, don't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 North of pike we snow. South of pike we pray. This is how we do. This is how we do it On Monday night Most are white Dumbfounded south of the Pi-ike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 This is how we do it On Monday night Most are white Dumbfounded south of the Pi-ike. hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Very 07-08 with that storm, Looks like we head to the meat freezer at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I wonder if the ensembles from a few days ago are going to end up being right after all with the brutal cold in early January...the Euro look is frigid. Still time for that to play out, but that is cold stuff heading into the lakes and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 We ping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 That would be a good widespread winter event. Low goes west but solid thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 We ping! You know it's a crappy pattern when Kevin is excited for sleet in the last few days of December lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Well but it is Forky. But we know how SWFEs work, don't we?last year I had a similar event the front end dump was insane then a quick sleet then poof end of precip. This is going to evolve each run, models struggling mightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Any Met RIP and reading is going to have issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Balls cold d10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 That would be a good widespread winter event. Low goes west but solid thump. The low actually gets squeezed out south of SNE at the last second...very vintage look from those SWFEs a few years back...primary tries to get into NY State but then just dies as it splits off to a secondary reflection that goes near the Cape. Runs into that brick wall of cold at the sfc. At any rate...that system is still 6 days out so it's going to change a ton. This run actually slowed it down and almost let the energy behind it catch up to it. So we don't get two seperate systems like previously (before we had one on the 28th-29th and one around the 31st)...with all those embedded shortwaves, who knows what it will look like 2 or 3 runs from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 07-08? No thank you. I was def. at the wrong latitude that year. The difference between NNE and SNE was tremendous so NNE would def. like to see that analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Any Met RIP and reading is going to have issues. Even the ensembles are having issues right now...they have been flip flopping a lot. I made a post a day or two ago about how even taking ensemble mean solutions verbatim is not much better than taking OP runs verbatim when the uncertainty isn't accounted for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 Even the ensembles are having issues right now...they have been flip flopping a lot. I made a post a day or two ago about how even taking ensemble mean solutions verbatim is not much better than taking OP runs verbatim when the uncertainty isn't accounted for. It's definitely one of those patterns where you have to look at where the anomalies are and then judge it for yourself. For instance you know the risks of features like AK ridging and SE ridging and as well as +NAO location. You can't necessarily cancel winter because yellows at 500mb are overhead. That cold is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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