Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 So it appears the running joke between some posters at the gtg was make subtle posts about pike north and how south would be bad. Carry on Not at all. I'm commenting on what I've seen over the last 24h on the models and how a lot of gradient patterns set up. Interpret that however you like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Seems like you want to be NYC north for this. That seems to be the delineation zone n of the pike and above 999 ft in sne probably... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yes...that's a risk in La Nina gradients...you lose the cross polar flow for a time, southern Canada torched during that episode and that doesn't look likely in this pattern. It should be pretty damned cold in S Canada. The analog pattern was more 2nd half of Jan 2008. Interesting...I thought Ninas were known for their cross-polar flow and cold air in Canada. Was the SE ridge overpowering for the first half of that month? I like the look here of that potential around New Year's Eve. A bit too progressive for my liking but this is a pretty good overrunning look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Not a bad storm, verbatim, down in the Mid Atl pre-New Years. Would not rule out that system at all for the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 All we can ask for are chsnces and in my opinion Nyc north is in a good spot for that.. I envision a lot of snow to sleet deals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 LOL, the GFS takes the PV right into the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 If the PV is in the Plains, what happens to the east (assuming it were to happen in real life)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 If the PV is in the Plains, what happens to the east (assuming it were to happen in real life)? You name it, it's possible..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Bottom line, pattern flipping right on schedule, Good things in the pike. NAO will reverse as the AO responds to Strat split. Game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Quite an active pattern on the 12z GFS with multiple systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Quite an active pattern on the 12z GFS with multiple systems.The higher resolution new GFS certainly is interested in ending Dec snowy. Those worrying about that going west have to feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 GFS op is a freezer for the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 GFS op is a freezer for the CONUS.how high will natty gas go, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Bottom line, pattern flipping right on schedule, Good things n of the pike. NAO will reverse as the AO responds to Strat split. Game on Probably... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The higher resolution new GFS certainly is interested in ending Dec snowy. Those worrying about that going west have to feel better. I'd like to see people just show a little patience before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 GFS op is a freezer for the CONUS. Shades of last winter's pattern towards the middle of the run? Got to think we can produce at some point with a look like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Probably... LOL you changed his quote from "in the pike" to "N of the pike" very sly lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 GFS op is a freezer for the CONUS. The 06z GEFS were actualyl rebuilding the EPO ridge after about D11...it looks like this run does it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 how high will natty gas go, lol Since i bought UGAZ in 5's i need -EPO or blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Well, let the fun begin...The Grinch is coming but then his heart's gonna grow and bring back the goodies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 12z giveth, I'm sure 18z will taketh away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 But we'll have our chances in it. Think La Nina in this upcoming pattern...fast movers and gradient pattern. Beggars can't be choosers.. We've had a sour mix of long duration, light intensity snowfalls and slop... I'd love blocking but at this rate fast movers and a gradient pattern is better than a SE Ridge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Beggars can't be choosers.. We've had a sour mix of long duration, light intensity snowfalls and slop... I'd love blocking but at this rate fast movers and a gradient pattern is better than a SE Ridge! No way I don't do well in this pattern, and probably not Boston, either. In fact, I'd argue that this pattern maybe better suited for the cp during the early part of January, than a typical el Nino regime. I really wish we could have seen this pattern set in a couple of weeks ago, as was orginally anticipated to be the case. This type of regime represents the composite for our snowiest Decembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 No way I don't do well in this pattern, and probably not Boston, either. In fact, I'd argue that this pattern maybe better suited for the cp during the early part of January, than a typical el Nino regime. I really wish we could have seen this pattern set in a couple of weeks ago, as was orginally anticipated to be the case. This type of regime represents the composite for our snowiest Decembers. It's weird to see this. Definitely be careful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 No way I don't do well in this pattern, and probably not Boston, either. In fact, I'd argue that this pattern maybe better suited for the cp during the early part of January, than a typical el Nino regime. I really wish we could have seen this pattern set in a couple of weeks ago, as was orginally anticipated to be the case. This type of regime represents the composite for our snowiest Decembers. Sometimes the wait makes it even better... After this grinchy funny business flipping into a winter blast would be a ton of fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Seems like you want to be NYC north for this. That seems to be the delineation zone All we can ask for are chsnces and in my opinion Nyc north is in a good spot for that.. I envision a lot of snow to sleet deals You hate those Pike north posts so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Weatherbell has a canadien hires now. Will be interesting to see how it performs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Weatherbell has a canadien hires now. Will be interesting to see how it performs. Really more of an "if" than a "how" but do keep me updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Shades of last winter's pattern towards the middle of the run? Got to think we can produce at some point with a look like this. That look is starting to get into "crush everything south" territory in a real fast flow heading due east off the coast. Retro that westward a bit and it's on. Definitely chilly though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 That look is starting to get into "crush everything south" territory in a real fast flow heading due east off the coast. Retro that westward a bit and it's on. Definitely chilly though. I like the PV near by but not on top of us..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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