SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Don S post is surely frightening but if you read closely it seems as if he is far from throwing in the towel on the winter. I wouldnt trust those AO forecasts right now as far as I could throw them...you can see there is an indication that after they briefly peak it they want to drop it again....the spread is pretty big from -2 to +5 at one point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Don S post is surely frightening but if you read closely it seems as if he is far from throwing in the towel on the winter. He is a talented writer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Funny how the top D11 analogs on the GEFS are La Ninas...the top one being Jan 2008, lol. Late Dec '67 and late Dec '98 in there too. It's actually not a bad pattern for New England, but it has it's risks obviously. I think the larger fear being expressed by some is that the NAO never goes negative...which actually would be a problem IMHO going deeper into winter. You can get away with it when you have all sorts of cold air down in southeast Canada leaking over into the northern tier...but if that disappears, then it can get really ugly very fast. But for the foreseeable future, the cold air should be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Funny how the top D11 analogs on the GEFS are La Ninas...the top one being Jan 2008, lol. Late Dec '67 and late Dec '98 in there too. It's actually not a bad pattern for New England, but it has it's risks obviously. I think the larger fear being expressed by some is that the NAO never goes negative...which actually would be a problem IMHO going deeper into winter. You can get away with it when you have all sorts of cold air down in southeast Canada leaking over into the northern tier...but if that disappears, then it can get really ugly very fast. But for the foreseeable future, the cold air should be there. The NAO is really starting to piss me off, but I still think by the end of January we should be good. Just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 How do we do with nickle and dime type (Clippers, etc.) in the upcoming pattern. I'm hearing from Coastal that he's not worried about suppression (yet), but do we tend to get the 1-3, 2-4 (etc.) events coming down from the west in these types of situations? I know no one can predict the precise nature of events, but what tends to dominate in the upcoming pattern as it stands now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Do I live an alternative universe or is that not the best pattern look we have had since Nov? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Do I live an alternative universe or is that not the best pattern look we have had since Nov? I'd certainly gamble on that modeled pattern than the crap we're in now. Gradient patterns can produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 ... According to NCEP's weekly publication the Pac is in ENSO-Neutral right now, which doesn't make much sense considering their own observations: Niño 4 +1.0ºC Niño 3.4 +0.8ºC Niño 3 +0.8ºC Niño 1+2 +0.1ºC Which is it...? Perhaps they need +1C as an average of the above values before committing?? I suppose if that is so it kind of makes sense. As far as I recall it has been [thus perhaps] "too close" to neutral in the immediate preceding months to ...anticipate much. It is forecast to become Nino positive at 65%, which by this logic would mean these Nino regions continue to warm and exceed 1C. Anyway, point being, ... meh, I think the warm ENSO is too modest to anticipate much. That whole integration into the hemisphere is just riDIculously complex ... almost like another wave type argument in my mind. If the rest of the atmosphere is not in such a phase state to constructively reflect the warm ENSO, said warm ENSO has to be pretty mighty to usurp patterns ... which either way, this one is not. Who knows what the threshold for ENSO bias, either way, is... I get the sneaking suspicion that 1) we have not crossed any such threshold; and 2) people want reasons and explanations to explain why they are not getting their drug fix so desperately that there's a bit of a Colonoscopy going on to find their dealer. Heh. The more I peer over all this stuff ... it really just looks like a plain old run of the mill case of being in a bad streak at the crappes table. We have impulses, we have thermal gradients at larger scales, we have flow amplitude, both in the N-S and E-S flow types ... We just can't seem to get these factors in spacial-temporal sync. High migrate N of NE with days of 33/28 in strata and occasional flurries, followed by said highs slipping E and allowing a free-for-all unimposed warm invasion with fropas. Systems going west or too far S -- this all because factually the ridge in the west is totally wrongly placed folks. It has to move off the ~ 120W/130W part of the grid. Until it does... the flow is always going to split post the Rockies, with a better look N then a hideous postiive tilted mean flow in the S, which is an negative interference pattern and ur frucked... Now, we can toy around with the ENSO as being "why" that ridge is wrongly placed (relative to what is needed to bring a more coherent storm pattern in the E...), and perhaps there would be truth to that. But sometimes in a chaotic realm, emergent patterns of positive and negative will either favor one outcome, or not; and, doing so in what seems like organization, ...only to breakdown in favor of a new paradigm later on. I guess in simple terms, for me the longer term indicators are too vague really to be certain. Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the "bare" gets you. There have been decent years when all said there should not have been, and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It's definitely the best pattern since November...but it doesn't say a lot in itself since the pattern since November has pretty much sucked. But we'll have our chances in it. Think La Nina in this upcoming pattern...fast movers and gradient pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It's definitely the best pattern since November...but it doesn't say a lot in itself since the pattern since November has pretty much sucked. But we'll have our chances in it. Think La Nina in this upcoming pattern...fast movers and gradient pattern. It's definitely not the pattern I envisioned we'd be looking at for the next few weeks but it is what it is. I do think there's a bit more to worry about for HFD/PVD/BOS than there is for areas just to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Don S post is surely frightening but if you read closely it seems as if he is far from throwing in the towel on the winter. Correct. I have not thrown in the towel. I think there's some possibility of a warm winter (especially if the AO goes strongly positive and blocking doesn't develop), but it's too soon for me to believe that's the most likely outcome. I believe odds still favor a colder than normal January and February, though there will likely be some milder periods. Even the AO forecasts have been very volatile in recent days, so one shouldn't have high confidence in the current one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Funny how the top D11 analogs on the GEFS are La Ninas...the top one being Jan 2008, lol. Late Dec '67 and late Dec '98 in there too. It's actually not a bad pattern for New England, but it has it's risks obviously. I think the larger fear being expressed by some is that the NAO never goes negative...which actually would be a problem IMHO going deeper into winter. You can get away with it when you have all sorts of cold air down in southeast Canada leaking over into the northern tier...but if that disappears, then it can get really ugly very fast. But for the foreseeable future, the cold air should be there. Based on everything I have read this past 2 months I think you are right on target. We can have a nice stretch especially up here for the next 2-3 weeks, then we will need cooperation from the Atlantic. If we get that, and revert to Nino climo, we have a shot at a really nice stretch of winter Feb-March. You have outlined how this winter really could be a good one, delayed but not denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The NAO is really starting to piss me off, but I still think by the end of January we should be good. Just a guess. I know for you it's all about the NAO and big events but we really need to start with the PAC and having that cooperate 1st before we can talk big dogs. Let's see if we can get this gradient pattern to set up post-Christmas 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It's definitely not the pattern I envisioned we'd be looking at for the next few weeks but it is what it is. I do think there's a bit more to worry about for HFD/PVD/BOS than there is for areas just to the north. Yeah, typical gradient...further north will be better. But we can cash in too on these, it's just less margin for error the further south you go of course. At the very least this should be a nice recovery pattern for the ski areas after this Holiday Sh** Sandwich. I think they'll get several good events...and hopefully most of SNE can share in on the fun ala Dec '07 or many events in '08-'09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It's definitely not the pattern I envisioned we'd be looking at for the next few weeks but it is what it is. I do think there's a bit more to worry about for HFD/PVD/BOS than there is for areas just to the north. Yea, I'm envisioning (hoping) for a MA pike centric area of dillineation....ride that for a few weeks, then off into a more classic pattern more conducive to major coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I know for you it's all about the NAO and big events but we really need to start with the PAC and having that cooperate 1st before we can talk big dogs. Let's see if we can get this gradient pattern to set up post-Christmas 1st. I absolutely agree. I'm resigned to the fact we aren't seeing an event of greater than 10" for at least the next month....I was speaking on a larger scale, ie relative to the balance of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yeah, typical gradient...further north will be better. But we can cash in too on these, it's just less margin for error the further south you go of course. At the very least this should be a nice recovery pattern for the ski areas after this Holiday Sh** Sandwich. I think they'll get several good events...and hopefully most of SNE can share in on the fun ala Dec '07 or many events in '08-'09. The first thing I thought looking at the Euro weeklies and the extended EPS/GEFS was... wow - great for ski country and bummer - I could get totally shut out if the gradient sets up a bit too far north. I guess the one thing we do have going for us is the "Nina-esque" look in the atmosphere is pretty unusual for the current ENSO state we're in. Maybe that SE Ridge doesn't wind up as stout as modeled over the next couple weeks bringing the storm track a bit farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Do I live an alternative universe or is that not the best pattern look we have had since Nov? not here in ORH unless you count T events. I'm talking classic clippers when there is plenty of cold air available for widespread measurable snowfall across the region followed by reinforcing cold shots. NOT the pattern since November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I still think my 30-40" for January has a shot, but I should probably have gone a bit lower. May depend on wether the pattern can shify quickly enough to allow a larger event before the close of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 There has been a real uptick in easterlies between the equator and 20N or so. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.10N-20N.gif Looking at some other stuff, it seems like we will be in this weird twilight zone of a ghost nina for a few weeks anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I'll agree with others sentiments that this gradient is obviously best for places north but SNE can still eek out some nice systems too. I'd favor an I-90/Rt 2 N delineation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Funny how the top D11 analogs on the GEFS are La Ninas...the top one being Jan 2008, lol. Late Dec '67 and late Dec '98 in there too. It's actually not a bad pattern for New England, but it has it's risks obviously. I think the larger fear being expressed by some is that the NAO never goes negative...which actually would be a problem IMHO going deeper into winter. You can get away with it when you have all sorts of cold air down in southeast Canada leaking over into the northern tier...but if that disappears, then it can get really ugly very fast. But for the foreseeable future, the cold air should be there. Wasn't Jan. 2008 the month with the infamous torch that wiped out like 15" in 3 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 There has been a real uptick in easterlies between the equator and 20N or so. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.10N-20N.gif Looking at some other stuff, it seems like we will be in this weird twilight zone of a ghost nina for a few weeks anyways. Considering Nino and Nina climo, may not be the worst thing in the world for the sne cp to see a Nina regime for the next few weeks, assuming that we transition to Nino regime for February/March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Seems like you want to be NYC north for this. That seems to be the delineation zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I'll agree with others sentiments that this gradient is obviously best for places north but SNE can still eek out some nice systems too. I'd favor an I-90/Rt 2 N delineation. Agree. I'd favor somewhere between the pike and route 2, as I think most would. May be tough for some a little to the s and w of Union, CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I'm getting a bit lost here. Are some knowledgeable people saying the regime we have had all of December will be continuing for the next several weeks due to the weird "Ninaesque" situation? Or, is the pattern changing but outlook for major storms not so great. These are not the same thing. Also, gradient storms are the overrunning events, I'm guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Wasn't Jan. 2008 the month with the infamous torch that wiped out like 15" in 3 days? Yes...that's a risk in La Nina gradients...you lose the cross polar flow for a time, southern Canada torched during that episode and that doesn't look likely in this pattern. It should be pretty damned cold in S Canada. The analog pattern was more 2nd half of Jan 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 So it appears the running joke between some posters at the gtg was make subtle posts about pike north and how south would be bad. Carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I'm getting a bit lost here. Are some knowledgeable people saying the regime we have had all of December will be continuing for the next several weeks due to the weird "Ninaesque" situation? Or, is the pattern changing but outlook for major storms not so great. These are not the same thing. Also, gradient storms are the overrunning events, I'm guessing. No, you need to re-read what Ginx wrote...he said "is this not the best pattern since November?"...meaning the upcoming pattern should be the best we have seen since we saw winter wx in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 No, you need to re-read what Ginx wrote...he said "is this not the best pattern since November?"...meaning the upcoming pattern should be the best we have seen since we saw winter wx in November. I'm on my fourth coffee of the day an evidently haven't waken up yet! I owe him an apology! Got it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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