Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 i didn't think the 21st looked bad for a 3-6 type advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 i didn't think the 21st looked bad for a 3-6 type advisory event. Depends where. Maybe ORH hills or something. Coast is skunked unless that hooks north and deepens rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 i didn't think the 21st looked bad for a 3-6 type advisory event.Thats exactky what it is just away from that ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 We have a thread for that anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Looks like I'm skunked through xmas. Sucks. The wintry one on the 21st goes to crap, but of course the rainer thrives for xmas eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Looks like I'm skunked through xmas. Sucks. The wintry on the 21st goes to crap, but of course the result thrives for xmas eve Yup. Serious bag of doo doo coming down the road. Put it in a paper bag, light it on fire and drop it at the Grinch's front door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Looks like I'm skunked through xmas. Sucks. The wintry on the 21st goes to crap, but of course the result thrives for xmas eve 9 days away..la la land for most models..I doubt it will happen exactly as modeled now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Yup. Serious bag of doo doo coming down the road. Put it in a paper bag, light it on fire and drop it at the Grinch's front door. You're all snow verbatim. Not sure what you mean . The Xmas storm is 9 days away and trending colder. Anything is on table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The amped Euro nailed the pre thanksgiving event when it meant issues, but of course abandons ship when it would have meant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 First meltdown of the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Well I honestly wouldn't concern yourself too much about something that far out. I understand what you mean..but things are sort of shuffling around and may change. IOW, like the GFS shows today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro ensembles look marginalv at best for 21st and are a total Grinch storm for most of new england with the Christmas storm. Looks like trash for anyone who likes snow in SNE Does most of New England include the ski resorts? I know the Whites can do pretty well with inland runners if there's enough CAD... or is this a case of rain to the border??? I know it's going to change, but curious of how much at risk Xmas week skiing is... Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 9 days away..la la land for most models..I doubt it will happen exactly as modeled nowNo $hit, but the margin for error regarding a rainer on the cp in a marginal airmass is a little wider than s that of a snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 obviously the consensus on the Christmas storm is for a big rainer but there are couple of absolutely epic members thrown in there for western portions of the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 First meltdown of the season?Yes. It will pass ...it's progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 obviously the consensus on the Christmas storm doesn't exist because it is over 8 days out. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 obviously the consensus on the Christmas storm is for a big rainer but there are couple of absolutely epic members thrown in there for western portions of the interiorI'd rather be 65° and rain on xmas, than 35 with S+ 20 miles to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 fypwhether its two days or 10 days out doesn't matter the majority of the modeling is showing a storm track to the west of New England .You like to nit pick my comments it's kind of annoying. obviously there's plenty of time for things to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 ensembles look pretty darn good later on. there is a bit of an up/down period showing up there around xmas though...ie maybe another cutter or messy system after that putrid grinch storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 whether its two days or 10 days out doesn't matter the majority of the modeling is showing a storm track to the west of New England .You like to nit pick my comments it's kind of annoying. obviously there's plenty of time for things to change I didn't notice that I was singling you out, so you probably just think I'm annoying. Anyway, of course it matters whether it is two or ten days out, what a ridiculous comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 i didn't think the 21st looked bad for a 3-6 type advisory event. When the snow maps show zilch it doesn't look good. Neither the euro nor the ensembles of the ecmwf show an ad isory event south of ORH Thats exactky what it is just away from that ocean Away from the ocean and NW of Boston by 40+ miles. You're all snow verbatim. Not sure what you mean . The Xmas storm is 9 days away and trending colder. Anything is on table He's not all snow nor are you by the euro solutions today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 ensembles look pretty darn good later on. there is a bit of an up/down period showing up there around xmas though...ie maybe another cutter or messy system after that putrid grinch storm. Yep. Transition storms. Just prepare for some sig worthy quotes prior to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I didn't notice that I was singling you out, so you probably just think I'm annoying. Anyway, of course it matters whether it is two or ten days out, what a ridiculous comment. its not a ridiculous statement at all, whether its 2 days out or 10 days out the computers are showing what they are showing I'm simply interpreting the data and saying that the majority of them are showing a track west of New England. obviously the margin for error is much greater in the 10 day time period I'm simply saying what the models are showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I am using the word consensus to describe all of the data that's out there right now and the majority of it points to an inland storm track on the Christmas storm but obviously that can change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 its not a ridiculous statement at all, whether its 2 days out or 10 days out the computers are showing what they are showing I'm simply interpreting the data and saying that the majority of them are showing a track west of New England. obviously the margin for error is much greater in the 10 day time period I'm simply saying what the models are showing I don't have access to the ECENS, so maybe I am missing something, but I wouldn't call what I have access to a consensus other than the fact that there is a storm of some sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Yep. Transition storms. Just prepare for some sig worthy quotes prior to that. i'm sure, yeah. better times ahead...just have to be patient and (probably) endure a couple more mediocre set-ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I was referring mainly to the EC ENSEMBLES. many of them have a strong GLC but there is a few more favorable members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 EUROens for the Christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The reality is that the only model shows a way west track is the Euro and it's ensembles. And at over 8 days out, it doesn't have a real clue yet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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