KEITH L.I Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Euro had a 960 low in the lakes Weds about a week ago..It has been struggling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I stand by my theory its the lag effect, the atmosphere love lagging a year behind, exactly why 2010-11 acted like an El Nino Any precedent for what we are seeing, with Nina lag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 I don't really agree. We went through 4 months where that atmosphere screamed niño and all if the sudden it says hold on and pump the brakes? I think it's just seasonal variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I agree with you....many, including myself, overlooked that possibility. My guess is that this pehnomenon is more prominent when ENSO is not strong, which was also the case in 2010-'11. If you think about it, we did have the gradient throughout Dec, it was just further north than it was during the gradient Decembers that we remember fondly lol I don't know if the strength of the current ENSO impacts it so much, I find its most common following a very strong version of an ENSO or a long duration ENSO of one type...93-94 had an active STJ which may have been a result of the basin being in an El Nino or near Nino state going back to 1990. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I agree with Scott...I don't buy the 1 year lag theory. Mostly because it doesn't show up at all over a longer period of testing. Everything we know points to about a 2-3 month lag over North America for ENSO. Now, there may be some sort of a "hangover" effect if you go from, say, a strong La Nina to neutral...sort of like 2008-2009 after the potent Nina of 2007-2008 (tho I guess on the "new" ENSO normals, 2008-2009 ended up being a weak Nina). But going from neutral to a weak Nino should produce no hangover effect. ENSO was basically a zero last year, so there is nothing to carry over into this winter. There's going to be times when the pattern "acts" differently. I'd be surprised if it lasted more than a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I believe the 12z EURO is on to something with regards to the 29th snowstorm. The GFS is lagging behind once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Good points, Will and Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 No snow on the grounds here in Nova Scotia but lots still in New Brunswick Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Snowing here attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I believe the 12z EURO is on to something with regards to the 29th snowstorm. The GFS is lagging behind once again. Same here as the 0Z Euro also shows a snowstorm as well as the Canadian shows a storm too. Only the GFS doesn't. We will have to see I will get more confident in it when we are only 2 days away from the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 No snow on the grounds here in Nova Scotia but lots still in New Brunswick Sent from my iPhone I could've told you that. You didn't have to travel here...lol. Where abouts in the province you visiting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Pattern looks active and probably quite fun for northern areas. I could definitely see myself getting shut out here in Hartford but I'd be pretty excited about the pattern if I lived in VT/NH/ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Lol. As the other Mets say things look better for chances in all of SNE.. Another says total shutout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Lol. As the other Mets say things look better for chances in all of SNE.. Another says total shutout Not what I said - but if one were to actually look at the model runs from today and even yesterday to some extent you would see what I'm talking about. Certainly an active pattern but it will take a bit of luck for my backyard to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Everyone seems to have different interpretations on what they say. Even mets seeing different things. That tells me everything is very diffuse and there's quite a bit of uncertainty. No one should be getting too high or too low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 Everyone seems to have different interpretations on what they say. Even mets seeing different things. That tells me everything is very diffuse and there's quite a bit of uncertainty. No one should be getting too high or too low Verbatim he is right if you believe the models. It looks like a lot of overrunning stuff potentially, but the truth is we don't know this far out. You are taking his posts out of context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx14 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Nws Albany throwing out the euro favoring gfs with just a weak cold front passage on Saturday with high pressure building in for Sunday and Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Verbatim he is right if you believe the models. It looks like a lot of overrunning stuff potentially, but the truth is we don't know this far out. You are taking his posts out of context. Not at all. What I'm saying is why should we believe any models? I mean Euro is rain to snow for all of us..so that's not a shut out..but that's not what I mean.. Why not dig deeper, and make deductions based on the pattern and what we've seen, taking into account model biases etc.. That's how I've always been taught it should be done..Not strict model forecasts verbatim. Let's just get thru the worst week of the winter here..and see how things look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Scott is the pattern change still happening? or is it a gradient pattern where Canada stays cold and the warmth from the south is cutoff?. I read on the CPC that shows no cold weather entering into the pattern but instead near normal temperatures to above normal temperatures they are saying. "THE MAJORITY OF 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE A POSITIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) INDEX DURING WEEK-2 WHICH IS TYPICALLY A SIGNAL FOR MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Not at all. What I'm saying is why should we believe any models? I mean Euro is rain to snow for all of us..so that's not a shut out..but that's not what I mean.. Why not dig deeper, and make deductions based on the pattern and what we've seen, taking into account model biases etc.. That's how I've always been taught it should be done..Not strict model forecasts verbatim. Let's just get thru the worst week of the winter here..and see how things look OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 OK Why do you take offense when people initiate discussions that don't always jive with your thoughts? it's ok to have differing viewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Nws Albany throwing out the euro favoring gfs with just a weak cold front passage on Saturday with high pressure building in for Sunday and Monday No snow begets no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The JUJU of a SNE GTG should never be underestimated. Lol. Good 12 Z runs for sure. Lets do this. I may have the mojo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Scoots..how are weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Scoots..how are weeklies? Hideous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Not at all. What I'm saying is why should we believe any models? I mean Euro is rain to snow for all of us..so that's not a shut out..but that's not what I mean.. Why not dig deeper, and make deductions based on the pattern and what we've seen, taking into account model biases etc.. That's how I've always been taught it should be done..Not strict model forecasts verbatim. Let's just get thru the worst week of the winter here..and see how things look Basically a super-blend of models with a touch of weenie optimism is what you are looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Hideous What is it showing for week 1 through week 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 What is it showing for week 1 through week 4? Well... hideous is probably an overstatement. I was texting with Scooter who said he didn't think it was that bad. Strong +NAO signal and pretty impressive SE ridging. Definitely not very Nino like but I think we're sort of playing with fire in the coastal plain. Some EPO ridging over AK so likely some cold to be bad in CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Well... hideous is probably an overstatement. I was texting with Scooter who said he didn't think it was that bad. Strong +NAO signal and pretty impressive SE ridging. Definitely not very Nino like but I think we're sort of playing with fire in the coastal plain. Some EPO ridging over AK so likely some cold to be bad in CONUS. All 4 weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Bridge jumpers: bad=had in Ryan's post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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