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Ending out December with a Potential Pattern Change


CoastalWx

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Yeah, i love BTV.   Advisory snow though?  Meh.   Ain't riding up there for that.  Although y'alls advisory snow is like a super duper warning snow down here.   :(

 

Oh yeah I certainly wouldn't travel for that, haha.  Long way to go though, I agree with ORH, that it wouldn't surprise me if that wave cut more of a mix up here.  Pretty tenuous situation.

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Yeah, i love BTV.   Advisory snow though?  Meh.   Ain't riding up there for that.  Although y'alls advisory snow is like a super duper warning snow down here.   :(

 

I was once at my Sis' house in Va Beach, and they got like 1.4" of snow, and my nephews got like 3 days off.  Good lord!  I remember in High School up here getting like 10" .   two hour delay.  That's all. two hours.  Then, having my dad waiting at the door with a snow shovel in the evening to smack face. 

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Question for the snow lovers ...

 

Is there a kind of snowless record keeping?  Like the year with the least amount??

 

Also, is the least snowiest always the most annoyingest?   It seems to me that getting an early snow followed by little or nothing might almost be worst than nothing at all??

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Question for the snow lovers ...

 

Is there a kind of snowless record keeping?  Like the year with the least amount??

 

Also, is the least snowiest always the most annoyingest?   It seems to me that getting an early snow followed by little or nothing might almost be worst than nothing at all??

 

I don't know Tip, but what I do know is snow lovers like me are wishing for a normal winter with snow not where we have rain in our winter season where its not needed or wanted. Also, I should add the GFS 12Z isn't looking bad for storms and colds even at the end of the run. You mentioned that the EPO and WPO will be heading towards positive in the members later however we know how reliable those 10-14 day long ranges are. They have been terrible this winter.

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Question for the snow lovers ...

 

Is there a kind of snowless record keeping?  Like the year with the least amount??

 

Also, is the least snowiest always the most annoyingest?   It seems to me that getting an early snow followed by little or nothing might almost be worst than nothing at all??

I think the annoyingest year is this year, and that goes for every year that isn't 95/96

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I was once at my Sis' house in Va Beach, and they got like 1.4" of snow, and my nephews got like 3 days off.  Good lord!  I remember in High School up here getting like 10" .   two hour delay.  That's all. two hours.  Then, having my dad waiting at the door with a snow shovel in the evening to smack face. 

A few years back we had no school here in Leominster for what wound up being all rain...lol

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A few years back we had no school here in Leominster for what wound up being all rain...lol

 

Yeah, recently there's been some forecast confidences rattled when media hyping fed into hysteria. Many local municipalities responded with preemptive closures/cancellations.  ... ultimately it would turn out, unnecessarily 

 

The rub?  It reflects badly on the Meteorology community, and many times, unfairly.  I mean, NWS and the distributors (which include the camera people et al), and even some private firms, they all see models doing x-y-z with a-b-c, and at some point their hands are cuffed to the responsibility to inform those communication circuits that there's a flappin' storm en route.  They do their job, and if there happens to be some meme in media to raise storm awareness (which Katrina and Sandy and climate change has given rise too) then the municipalities and the populations they serve don't blame the media - they blame the Meteorologist.  

 

It's also harmful in the sense of crying wolf.  Now, ... when they really should preemptively shut stuff down they'll hesitate .. and someone will die.  

 

Media's just thoughtlessly motivated by greed like any macro-industry in western  societies.  They don't care what harm they're incurring as long as their ratings show that they are getting lots of money. Producers get pressure to flame the topic of the moment, and they call in their Mets and media personalities into meetings and tell them to push the produce (so to speak...).  

 

Or course, Ryan's probably now angry at me.  Haha.   Not saying that is you per se, but you have to sense the the reporter-out-on-the-end-of-the-peer dramatization that goes on.  Duh! Of course is f'n windy; he's standing out at the end of a peer. 

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What are the scenarios that play out well for the 28-29 in terms of snow? How about 30-31?

What are the scenarios that play out poorly?

What seems to be happening in the emerging ensembles to indicate one or the other and how trustworthy in the context of the emerging pattern?

 

I'm not asking re: the constantly changing deterministic models but within the contexts of probabilities given what actually seems to be happening/about to happen in the atmosphere? I'm not looking for my backyard scenarios. I know the models to suck for that (including my imaginary ones)

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Euro ensembles are coming in more suppressed for 12/28-12/29...so we'll have to see if that is a real trend. If it is, then it would look snowier.

 

I'm only piqued by that possibility if it doesn't mean something of a tradeoff with regard to subsequent setups.

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I'm only piqued by that possibility if it doesn't mean something of a tradeoff with regard to subsequent setups.

:lol:  

Very cereberal weenie.                                                                                      

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:lol:  

Very cereberal weenie.                                                                                      

 

Well, sure. Why hope a marginal setup threads the needle if it trashes the hotel room on its departure, no?

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Yeah, the pattern over North America looks so anti-Nino...I guess the only thing missing a more -PNA pattern.

But the ridiculous fast graident flow with a SE ridge looks a lot like La Nina. But it's cold enough in our region that it should gives us plenty of chances.

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I stand by my theory its the lag effect, the atmosphere love lagging a year behind, exactly why 2010-11 acted like an El Nino

That's a good point snow goose. Even the the winter of 98-99 acted like a niño despite being a nina mostly because of the super niño lag effect the pervious year

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I stand by my theory its the lag effect, the atmosphere love lagging a year behind, exactly why 2010-11 acted like an El Nino

I agree with you....many, including myself, overlooked that possibility. 

My guess is that this pehnomenon is more prominent when ENSO is not strong, which was also the case in 2010-'11.

If you think about it, we did have the gradient throughout Dec, it was just further north than it was during the gradient Decembers that we remember fondly lol

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