40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Jan '87 had some great coastal storms. I remember those as a kid. One cut right through the barrier island off of Chatham. That season, and Jan 1966 (I think) are the two seasons that provided the impetus for me to update yesterday. Whether the season is just solid or epic will be decided by what February and March does. They didn't do very much in those two seasons....maybe the fact that the nIno is weaker will help, but who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Looking ahead, the -EPO tries to break down as a similar MJO wave that happened in late November to end that cold, may do the same again. So, increased PAC jet possible after the 5-10 or so. No sign of any real -NAO yet. I thought you said the other day that the ePO is going to be sticking around for awhile. Screw the mjo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The biggest failure in the medium term that so many expected to happen was the wave-breaking event on Christmas to induce a -NAO block...looks totally different than 7-10 days ago. Almost a complete failure now. Just a really transient ridge that never even closes off briefly. That's the kind of stuff that can screw up confidence in the long range. That -NAO would have been awesome for the pattern...but it's not going to happen except a briefly useless transient ridge there. We'll be relying on the PAC for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 oy! if we keep canada cold enough we will get snow i would think...at least up here. But how distressing! no it's not at all. Weird, don't know what peeps are looking at but looks fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's not voodoo, it drove December's mess.LR voodoo, just because it happened in Dec does not make it predictable in two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Looks great for winter to start the New Year. Looks below normal for a while. LR MJO is voodoo.Cold for a few days, but nothing epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The biggest failure in the medium term that so many expected to happen was the wave-breaking event on Christmas to induce a -NAO block...looks totally different than 7-10 days ago. Almost a complete failure now. Just a really transient ridge that never even closes off briefly. That's the kind of stuff that can screw up confidence in the long range. That -NAO would have been awesome for the pattern...but it's not going to happen except a briefly useless transient ridge there. We'll be relying on the PAC for a while. That grinch storm is just the absolute embodiment of the term. It couldn't even grinch right.....not only does it cut and ruin xmas, but it won't even blow up and give the midwest wennies a blizzard, while altering our pattern. Utterly useless...I wish that fuc*ing sw would just evaporate. I remember asking Scott if that could fook the duck and we was pretty dismissive of that occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 I thought you said the other day that the ePO is going to be sticking around for awhile. Screw the mjo It doesn't go away verbatim. Just weakens. You guys have to let real met disco flow and not somehow take words out of context. For instance, if someone says the pattern may not be great, don't interpret it as 2006-2007. There is too much of that going on and it really takes away from people putting their honest thoughts out on the board. In any case, it doesn't look bad. But, that amplitude of the -EPO ridge won't last. Maybe forcing can move closer to the dateline near mid month..a distinct possibility too. Snow has too many nuances and intangibles to see this far out, especially in New England where we don't need the planets to align like they do down in the MA. I wouldn't worry too hard right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The biggest failure in the medium term that so many expected to happen was the wave-breaking event on Christmas to induce a -NAO block...looks totally different than 7-10 days ago. Almost a complete failure now. Just a really transient ridge that never even closes off briefly.That's the kind of stuff that can screw up confidence in the long range. That -NAO would have been awesome for the pattern...but it's not going to happen except a briefly useless transient ridge there.We'll be relying on the PAC for a while. When things like that happen you know that this winter isn't going our way. Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Cold for a few days, but nothing epic.winter, you can't make it up. Why would you want epic cold ala 89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 2006-2007 redux Yes, we should have some awesome sleet storms in February. I can't wait! NCEP long-range winter forecast FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 LR voodoo, just because it happened in Dec does not make it predictable in two weeks. You can predict it with reasonable confidence. Don't use those stupid RMM dynamic progs. The difference is that composites for December vs January have different outcomes so that's where it can get tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It doesn't go away verbatim. Just weakens. You guys have to let real met disco flow and not somehow take words out of context. For instance, if someone says the pattern may not be great, don't interpret it as 2006-2007. There is too much of that going on and it really takes away from people putting their honest thoughts out on the board. In any case, it doesn't look bad. But, that amplitude of the -EPO ridge won't last. Maybe forcing can move closer to the dateline near mid month..a distinct possibility too. Snow has too many nuances and intangibles to see this far out, especially in New England where we don't need the planets to align like they do down in the MA. I wouldn't worry too hard right now. great post, but I am just going to let the bridge jumpers and the All Snows of the world carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 When things like that happen you know that this winter isn't going our way. Oh well It happened last year too. Winter went ok then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It doesn't go away verbatim. Just weakens. You guys have to let real met disco flow and not somehow take words out of context. For instance, if someone says the pattern may not be great, don't interpret it as 2006-2007. There is too much of that going on and it really takes away from people putting their honest thoughts out on the board. In any case, it doesn't look bad. But, that amplitude of the -EPO ridge won't last. Maybe forcing can move closer to the dateline near mid month..a distinct possibility too. Snow has too many nuances and intangibles to see this far out, especially in New England where we don't need the planets to align like they do down in the MA. I wouldn't worry too hard right now. Nah too many things that should've happened by now aren't for instance the SSW looks to be a failure. It's one of those things where Last winter nobody really expecting the -EPO to be a huge player in the wx pattern. It's ok I expected a pretty lame winter anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I think the shot at an upper echelon season died with the MW blizzard progs. Solid season still very much in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 winter, you can't make it up. Why would you want epic cold ala 89.Where did I say I want Dec 89? You said it looks great toward New Years and below normal for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Nah too many things that should've happened by now aren't for instance the SSW looks to be a failure. It's one of those things where Last winter nobody really expecting the -EPO to be a huge player in the wx pattern. It's ok I expected a pretty lame winter anywayJust learning,hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It happened last year too. Winter went ok then. Right. I'd hope for "ok" as this point......I think that is the potential. Probably no blockbuster coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Where did I say I want Dec 89? You said it looks great toward New Years and below normal for awhile.when did I say Epic? Looks like winter to me. Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Just learning,hmmm Learning what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Nah too many things that should've happened by now aren't for instance the SSW looks to be a failure. It's one of those things where Last winter nobody really expecting the -EPO to be a huge player in the wx pattern. It's ok I expected a pretty lame winter anywayYou aren't adding anything of substance with posts like these. You honestly have no idea what the rest of winter will bring.If you have some actual meteorological insight as to why it will suck other than "too many things should have happened by now that didn't", then bring it on. Otherwise we should avoid filling this thread with emotional hyperbole about a crappy 3 weeks in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 when did I say Epic? Looks like winter to me. Oh welllol...am I in the right dimension this morning? I never used "epic"...but you just did to me. Anyways...I feel confident up here wrt snow going forward. Even an early Dec pattern repeat gets me some decent chances with climo norms continuing to drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Back to reality, all of us in SNE live between these three points. Looks like winter to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Cold for a few days, but nothing epic.time dimensions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 time dimensionslol...egg on my face. I just got out of bed so my short term memory is about 2 mins right now. oyeI think we're both arguing the same thing though. It's just semantics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 lol...egg on my face. I just got out of bed so my short term memory is about 2 mins right now. oye I think we're both arguing the same thing though. It's just semantics. no argument at all in fact we ARE on the same page, yep slept in myself. Vacation F T W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 At this point in the game, it might be best to let the professionals speak here and just follow along with intelligent questions. Emotion just messes things up since it has no effect on the weather. Most of us WANT monster snowstorms and great cold, but I'd really like to understand the meteorology of what's going on. Who cares if we have some great event on the Euro ten days out only to see it disappear a few days later. The actual pattern, however seems somewhat more predictable. We've been told for a month that it might not come until Christmas or even after and it seems the pros were right. Its coming just after Christmas. Now its time to listen for the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's funny how happy people would be if they saw the Feb 2010 500mb pattern. And look what that did. Just too many nuances to determine snowfall so far out. All you can do is comment on the hemispheric pattern which for the most part can shed light on the potential...but the final outcome can be quite different than what you first thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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