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Ending out December with a Potential Pattern Change


CoastalWx

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Man that's a weird interference pattern... Just take this 18z oper. GFS run:  out there around 120 to 144 hours, it has established a rather classic looking 50/50 blocking low, and associated general train-wreck appeal extending from central to eastern Canada, yet .. still manages to take an important mid level impulse WEST ?!  :wacko:

 

oh k

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The GFS has had a system though around the 31st the past few days...some runs it's looked warmer than others. 12z GFS took it over New York State.

After the Grinch storm. If new Years is another cutter, going to be a lot of salty people in here, and I dont really blame them.

Hopefully we score something between now and when I head back to work on the 5th.

Even last night and today was meh. Didn't even come close to getting an inch

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After the Grinch storm. If new Years is another cutter, going to be a lot of salty people in here, and I dont really blame them.

Hopefully we score something between now and when I head back to work on the 5th.

Even last night and today was meh. Didn't even come close to getting an inch

I hope people can be mature enough not to be controlled by the weather.

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No joke, from about D5 to D15, ...10 straight days of at or below freezing and no precipitation.  Cold desert.  Actually kind of hard to do that at this particular lat/lon... I'd like to see that happen.

 

Welcome to last January up here LOL.

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I don't melt anymore. Really kept all emotions in check. I like this cutter from the wind damage aspect and no snowpack to lose. Timing sucks on xmas eve though. But I also know at this time next week we are in middle if a snowstorm.. So it makes it ok

Oh my
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I have faith in the SAI and OPI. Correlations to teleconnectors are strong enough that I'm not worried any this winter being cold and hopefully snowy. It's going to snow a lot this winter. I promise.

It's a correction that has to do with the AO, not how snowy our winters are. The biggest correlation of all states it is very difficult to get another 60"+ winter for BOS.

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I have faith in the SAI and OPI. Correlations to teleconnectors are strong enough that I'm not worried any this winter being cold and hopefully snowy. It's going to snow a lot this winter. I promise.

I think the solar activity, QBO, and La Niña lag are causing more problems than anyone ever anticipated. This is similar to 2010-11 so far in that despite being in one phase of an ENSO the entire atmosphere and pattern seems to be behaving like the one we just came out of.

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I think the solar activity, QBO, and La Niña lag are causing more problems than anyone ever anticipated. This is similar to 2010-11 so far in that despite being in one phase of an ENSO the entire atmosphere and pattern seems to be behaving like the one we just came out of.

It just goes to show you that there are a lot of variables in weather. The pattern driving snow cover is just a piece of the puzzle. In a way this is good because we as humans get too cocky thinking we can treat everything as an index. It's nice when Mother Nature gives us a good fook you to some conventional thinking. I do think a strat warming event may occur in February, but it's not a lock right now.

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About to enter a phenomenal next 60 days of winter and folks still trying to find ways why it's going to bust warm with little snow. Ugh

We can't know that and we won't til about January 15th, even our worst winters tend to have a flip cold somewhere between 12/20 and 1/15 it's just that the bad ones generally warm back up after 2 weeks and the good ones don't. If the pattern reverses again in 2-3 weeks I think it's safe to say this one is toast, usually you can safely grab the dominant pattern warm or cold through 1/20 and run with it the rest of the way.

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We can't know that and we won't til about January 15th, even our worst winters tend to have a flip cold somewhere between 12/20 and 1/15 it's just that the bad ones generally warm back up after 2 weeks and the good ones don't. If the pattern reverses again in 2-3 weeks I think it's safe to say this one is toast, usually you can safely grab the dominant pattern warm or cold through 1/20 and run with it the rest of the way.

 

It can reverse and still produce garbage like Jan 2013 did. Snow is a whole other ball game when it comes to patterns.

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