Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 On the way to becoming a cutter.cherio mate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I'd nearly bet my life's savings the 31st event does not cut and the 29th one is out to sea..the Euro has been very predictable the last month in its error's beyond Day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 Jesus you guys are idiots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I'd nearly bet my life's savings the 31st event does not cut and the 29th one is out to sea..the Euro has been very predictable the last month in its error's beyond Day 5. Just tuckie tuckie no cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx14 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I'd nearly bet my life's savings the 31st event does not cut and the 29th one is out to sea..the Euro has been very predictable the last month in its error's beyond Day 5.Bingo it looks dry after Xmas with seasonable temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Bingo it looks dry after Xmas with seasonable temps No, no it does not. All long range operational and ensemble guidance suggests an active pattern going forward, active doesn't mean snow(Could be cutters, could be whiffs, could be hits, etc.), but I don't see dry whatsoever from the pattern going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 No, no it does not. All long range operational and ensemble guidance suggests an active pattern going forward, active doesn't mean snow(Could be cutters, could be whiffs, could be hits, etc.), but I don't see dry whatsoever from the pattern going forward.Well, if its whiffs, then it's dry.. .does look active, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 EURO has some support in the 12z Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Well, if its whiffs, then it's dry What I'm saying is that overall, it doesn't look like a dry look going forward. Could it end up dry due to bad timing/bad luck/incorrect modeling? Sure, but I'd say the odds favor precipitation chances continuing at least for the rest of 2014 and probably into Jan as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 What I'm saying is that overall, it doesn't look like a dry look going forward. Could it end up dry due to bad timing/bad luck/incorrect modeling? Sure, but I'd say the odds favor precipitation chances continuing at least for the rest of 2014 and probably into Jan as well.Yea, I know haha...I edited. Just bustn'.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 LongIslandWx14 is not optimistic of the pattern going forward, Euro Ensembles actually like 12/29 but I can't tell how much spread there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Yea, I know haha...I edited. Just bustn'.... Lol I saw that edit but figured I'd let it stand. Give us an active pattern and late Dec/Jan climo and I think we'll all be happy. Don't need a perfect pattern or even a good one to produce this time of year, just need to not have a bad one and I don't see any signs of a bad pattern coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 LongIslandWx14 is not optimistic of the pattern going forward, Euro Ensembles actually like 12/29 but I can't tell how much spread there is. They've been all over this threat big time for several days. It's a real threat..probably bigger threat is to mix than OTS..since the cold push doesn't come in until after the storm leaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 EURO has some support in the 12z Canadian. Well that time of the 29th-2nd has been modeled for a storm system for the past like 3-4 days so there's support for something in there. The GFS has had it off and on for days too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Well if ens are right were going to have chances with good cold nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Oh I see, two different events...one the 28-29th and one near the 1st. EURO looks real amped and ugly for the New Year storm, but luckily that's a Day 10 prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Oh I see, two different events...one the 28-29th and one near the 1st. EURO looks real amped and ugly for the New Year storm, but luckily that's a Day 10 prog. Thats exactly how it looked with the now virtually nonexistent wave for the 26th-27th 6-7 days ago...its been blowing stuff up all month and was sort of doing that the last few winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Thats exactly how it looked with the now virtually nonexistent wave for the 26th-27th 6-7 days ago...its been blowing stuff up all month and was sort of doing that the last few winters. The GFS has had a system though around the 31st the past few days...some runs it's looked warmer than others. 12z GFS took it over New York State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 The EURO has a wave developing off the front towards the 29th period, while the GFS does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 The EURO has a wave developing off the front towards the 29th period, while the GFS does not. I posted earlier I'm not so sure I doubt the wave developing as I do it being near the coast, my hunch would be to say its a miss due to the wall of arctic air approaching the East Coast and the pattern out west being progressive still...these wave formations tend to only work out when the pattern out west is stable, when its still transitioning they usually end up out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I posted earlier I'm not so sure I doubt the wave developing as I do it being near the coast, my hunch would be to say its a miss due to the wall of arctic air approaching the East Coast and the pattern out west being progressive still...these wave formations tend to only work out when the pattern out west is stable, when its still transitioning they usually end up out to sea. Yeah I read your thoughts previously, I think you may be right, I think towards the 30th and 31st is when the real storm occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 The cold push isn't until after that first storm. It's more likely to cut or mix than ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 The cold push isn't until after that first storm. It's more likely to cut or mix than ots Models have two separate shortwaves developing into surface waves of low pressure. One goes into the ST Lawerence River Valley, while the second shortwave spawns a secondary low along the cold front as it stations itself over the Gulf Stream. One model likes the solution of the secondary wave intensifying rapidly up the coast, while the GFS says nope. The GGEM says the EURO might be onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 The cold push isn't until after that first storm. It's more likely to cut or mix than ots Mix yes, cut no...that would be a virtual impossibility...the only thing that would cut is the 26th-27th event which is now pretty much dead in the water...the GFS still wants to do something with it but even its losing it, the Euro pretty much now has it as only a dying weak piece of energy scooting from the Midwest to the ERN Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Looks to be a good weather bomb for Nova Scotia and Southern New Brunswick as well for Prince Edward Island if the Euro is correct with lots of snow and wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Yeah the post Christmas low is slowly fading away, its not just a dry arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Looks to be a good weather bomb for Nova Scotia and Southern New Brunswick as well for Prince Edward Island if the Euro is correct with lots of snow and wind It will be interesting to see if that changes with a slight bias towards SNE when the bombing out occurs, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 On the way to becoming a cutter. Shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 Shocker. It was a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Shocker. Haha time to take a break MPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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