J Paul Gordon Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 They look good...Hudson Bay PV and AK ridge...pretty active pattern it looks like too and plenty of cold. Looks like somewhat of an east-based -NAO late in the period...which would be good with the way the PAC is. Are these the ten day outlooks? Pattern change seems realish then. (No sarcasm implied) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 This has showed up a couple of days now around the 1st of the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 GEFS like the storm PF posted above also, although the mean is closer to a BM track. Lots of spread as would be expected, but as Jerry mentioned before, it's a nice signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 GEFS like the storm PF posted above also, although the mean is closer to a BM track. Well hard to tell on the OP GFS graphics where it goes exactly at 12-hr intervals, lol. Just tuckie tuckie and we'll be ok All joking aside, its been signaled for a couple days as a time frame to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 12z EURO lost the cutter idea for the 27th/28th and instead has a 1007 over LI at hour 186 to a 1002 just east of OGT ME at hour 192 , NNE is cold enough for advisory/low end warning snows and would be rain to a little snow on the end(for most) for SNE. GFS sort of hinted at that little wave of moisture, but it's a much bigger deal on the EURO than it is on the GFS which struggles to give anywhere over 0.1" QPF(it's also much further south with it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 12z EURO lost the cutter idea for the 27th/28th and instead has a 1007 over LI at hour 186 to a 1002 just east of OGT ME at hour 192 , NNE is cold enough for advisory/low end warning snows and would be rain to a little snow on the end(for most) for SNE. GFS sort of hinted at that little wave of moisture, but it's a much bigger deal on the EURO than it is on the GFS which struggles to give anywhere over 0.1" QPF(it's also much further south with it). It's way out there, but that solution looks a little weird to me. Not that it's worth much discussion anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Good luck Maine on the Euro...2-5" of rainfall for NH/ME in under 24 hours, yikes. Makes the 1-2" in VT seem paltry, lol...not going to be pretty either here, but there's going to be some flood threats especially in GYX's CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Euro would seem like some kind of system after the end of its run...so that new years timeframe is looking interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 Man that sucks. That storm is going to ruin what I wanted to do after Christmas up north. Who would have thought the fooking snowpack would be better after Thanksgiving instead of Christmas . The month sucks hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Through 12/19: BOS: +1.4 BDL: +1.5 PVD: +1:7 ORH: +0.6 TOL: -5.1 Given the potential of a big positive departure week ahead, it looks like December ends solidly above at the big 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Good luck Maine on the Euro...2-5" of rainfall for NH/ME in under 24 hours, yikes. Makes the 1-2" in VT seem paltry, lol...not going to be pretty either here, but there's going to be some flood threats especially in GYX's CWA. Just torches the bases up there..probably forces trail closures in some places.. Sucks ..but at least there's a light at end of rain /dew shaft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 It's way out there, but that solution looks a little weird to me. Not that it's worth much discussion anyways. With the strengthening -NAO, shouldn't we expect to see these projected cutters get squeezed southward over time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 It's way out there, but that solution looks a little weird to me. Not that it's worth much discussion anyways. Agreed, and unsurprisingly, basically no ens support for it(Looks like 5-6 of the 50 look somewhat like the op). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Man that sucks. That storm is going to ruin what I wanted to do after Christmas up north. Who would have thought the fooking snowpack would be better after Thanksgiving instead of Christmas . The month sucks hard. You aint kidding...I have plans to head to Northern Maine(far Northern Aroostook county in the St John Valley) the day after Xmas to Snowmobile, and even they have rain in the forecast up there and 35-40 degrees on Xmas Day!! What really sucks, is that as of now, they are in good shape with the 10-12 inches the area received on Wed/Thur this week, and this Grinch Crap is going to ruin everything for everybody!! Usually they escape the rains being so far North, but it doesn't look that way this time!! What a frieken Bummer. I know what the ski people are going through too...sucks big time for them too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 With the bit of relaxation at the end of the ensemble run with a frigid Canada I think that period may be another good snow window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Ens still have the snow storm 30-31? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Patience is in order as the models figure out what occurs with the Christmas Eve system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Ens still have the snow storm 30-31? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Patience is in order as the models figure out what occurs with the Christmas Eve system. Pretty good consensus on that. Para, euro, euro ensembles, GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Tell You what, that day 10 map on the euro is sexy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Man that sucks. That storm is going to ruin what I wanted to do after Christmas up north. Who would have thought the fooking snowpack would be better after Thanksgiving instead of Christmas . The month sucks hard. Complete and total debacle. Nothing like having 3 kids on a 2-week holiday vacation with nothing but mud outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 euro ens are sort of so-so today. probably active...but hmmmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 euro ens are sort of so-so today. probably active...but hmmmmm...Retro AK ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 euro ens are sort of so-so today. probably active...but hmmmmm... Well that doesn't sound to good??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 euro ens are sort of so-so today. probably active...but hmmmmm... Looks like a gradient pattern with a -EPO and a SE ridge in the LR, I'd think we could work with it. I'll roll the dice with having some cold air around and storm chances, sure some will probably be more wet than white, but I think with that look we'd be able to get some nice events in. Not a KU pattern, but a nice look none the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Retro AK ridge? it holds its own overall...kind of flattens a bit at the end but still there. just the PV starts to lift N and is fairly strong - devils in the details obviously. don't want it too far south, but don't want it so far north that anything ejecting out of the southern plains around that SE ridge just rides over 'freaks head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 it holds its own overall...kind of flattens a bit at the end but still there. just the PV starts to lift N and is fairly strong - devils in the details obviously. don't want it too far south, but don't want it so far north that anything ejecting out of the southern plains around that SE ridge just rides over 'freaks head. feel like it's one of those patterns, as modeled there, that could go either way really. region could cash in if you've got well-timed disturbances and enough antecedent cold to fight cutters...or you could see strong lows eject from the plains and run NNE with such limited blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 and there's always the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 feel like it's one of those patterns, as modeled there, that could go either way really. region could cash in if you've got well-timed disturbances and enough antecedent cold to fight cutters...or you could see strong lows eject from the plains and run NNE with such limited blocking I feel like the relaxation signal is getting stronger but in that relaxation period perhaps we can cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 jeebus...relaxation of a pattern that hasn't even gotten here yet . I feel like the relaxation signal is getting stronger but in that relaxation period perhaps we can cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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