CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 he earned the 90210 monikor in the first weeks of Dec 10 right before Boxing day I can't stand idiotic weenies, They will get called out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 he earned the 90210 monikor in the first weeks of Dec 10 right before Boxing day Proof? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 wow there is alot of wishcasting in this thread...things are not going to plan...the "good pattern" keeps getting pushed further and further out...demons of 01-02, 05-06 and 11-12 there....cold and snow's always 10 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 doesnt appear to be anything but rain through this period and beyond. You aren't worried about the SE ridge and cutters? Well we had that last year too. We have those every winter. I'm not concerned about that as much as making sure the Pacific and Atlantic look good. I mentioned this pattern could me anything from Miller As, Bs, and even overrunning mixed events. A pattern change does not equate to 50" a month. Snow is the combination of many variances. All we can say is that the hemispheric pattern is changing to a more favorable one for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 Sorry if I was harsh, but those are the same comments I mentioned we would see a few days ago. If you expect 12/26/10-2/2/11 to come walking through that door, you may be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Well we had that last year too. We have those every winter. I'm not concerned about that as much as making sure the Pacific and Atlantic look good. I mentioned this pattern could me anything from Miller As, Bs, and even overrunning mixed events. A pattern change does not equate to 50" a month. Snow is the combination of many variances. All we can say is that the hemispheric pattern is changing to a more favorable one for snow. I like how you cut out my question about the 26-28th not being pretty. Fair point that you bring up, but many had the pattern change a few weeks earlier...maybe delayed but not denied, but have to say I've seen that movie before and it doesn't always work out...hopefully that is not the case here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I would bet money on Scooter's outlook as laid out on page one. Could I lose, sure, but in would still like my chances. In a week we will have a better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I like how you cut out my question about the 26-28th not being pretty. Fair point that you bring up, but many had the pattern change a few weeks earlier...maybe delayed but not denied, but have to say I've seen that movie before and it doesn't always work out...hopefully that is not the case here.... What's your deal? Everything is evolving as forecast. Are you just trying to bust his chops because the 26-28th specifically will not bring you snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 I like how you cut out my question about the 26-28th not being pretty. Fair point that you bring up, but many had the pattern change a few weeks earlier...maybe delayed but not denied, but have to say I've seen that movie before and it doesn't always work out...hopefully that is not the case here.... What did I cut out? Back in the beginning of December we speculated that it might be more after mid December, but a few of us even said maybe Christmas because the weeklies didn't look better until around that time. In early December, the models really weren't even far enough out to see any change. It wasn't until really 7-8 days ago where we started seeing signs on the ensembles that it looked legit. I see nothing that changes it. You guys using this it's always delayed logic said this last year too. This logic stems from a horrible Pacific pattern that never improved. This is simply not the case here. The Pacific is reversed. 2006 and 2011 had the horrible Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I like Scott's thoughts the best so far, seem to be right on since he first posted his thoughts. After the 28th period still looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 The funny thing is that I purposely said "not pretty" because sometimes you have to walk on egg shells in here. I did want to say cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 I would bet money on Scooter's outlook as laid out on page one. Could I lose, sure, but in would still like my chances. In a week we will have a better idea. It's just an outline. I mean if people have to wait a few more days for snow...so be it. That's what happens many times. Once a pattern tries to become established, it can be a little while for any snow to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 It's just an outline. I mean if people have to wait a few more days for snow...so be it. That's what happens many times. Once a pattern tries to become established, it can be a little while for any snow to follow. And you could totally bust. But at least you will own up to it if you do. Well laid out, logical, and sound. I've been playing around with some pay stuff, looking at h5, etc. to try to see it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Brian melted. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 . I've been playing around with some pay stuff.I hope she's worth it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 And you could totally bust. But at least you will own up to it if you do. Well laid out, logical, and sound. I've been playing around with some pay stuff, looking at h5, etc. to try to see it better. It would have to be a bad fail. I mean maybe somehow we get 4 more cutters or something..lol, but I doubt it. I do think that AK ridge could allow for some cstl huggers..but if the -NAO gets established, then that would limit it. The bottom line is that the Pacific and Atlantic are changing. I can't help if storms don't work out in some areas. That's the breaks sometimes. It's also completely incorrect to judge whether a pattern changed, but that's tough to sell on here since we all use snow as a metric. It's difficult to convey this to people because I think people assume "hey it's changed...days and days of snow now!" In fact, snow is a function of many variables that need to work out within the hemispheric pattern. Sometimes textbook patterns don't work out (think 2010) sometimes patterns that don't look good 10 days out are golden (December 2007). I mean if the pattern flipped to something we had in early 2010, would people still be saying no change? LOL. That was the mother of all patterns to deliver KUs and we just fell short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 FWIW (and this may not be much because I am sort of on a limb here), but the 50mb vortex seems to really take a beating. I could see maybe a warming event late Jan or early Feb. Just a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 FWIW (and this may not be much because I am sort of on a limb here), but the 50mb vortex seems to really take a beating. I could see maybe a warming event late Jan or early Feb. Just a hunch.Cohen agrees, sees two week of cold and snow then brief relaxation followed by SSWhttp://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 FWIW (and this may not be much because I am sort of on a limb here), but the 50mb vortex seems to really take a beating. I could see maybe a warming event late Jan or early Feb. Just a hunch. Great, cue more meltdowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 Great, cue more meltdowns. Strat warming. A good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 Cohen agrees, sees two week of cold and snow then brief relaxation followed by SSW http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation I saw that. The GFS op actually splits it, but that's the op run in la la land. In any case, that's not my area of expertise, but it would not shock me if that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Strat warming. A good thing. Oh, the 50mb vortex is responsible for the +AO?...so if we rip it to shreds, the AO tanks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 Oh, the 50mb vortex is responsible for the +AO?...so if we rip it to shreds, the AO tanks? I wouldn't say is directly responsible, but it's related to it. Weaken that, and you allow a more -AO which can lead to a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Great, cue more meltdowns.read my link and look at the animation at the end, good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 read my link and look at the animation at the end, good stuff Yea thx, good stuff indeed. So Late Jan into Feb could be rocking if the SSW verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 The concern though is real given the potential for the MJO to really muck up the good pattern for us. Not a forecast but something to keep your eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 The concern though is real given the potential for the MJO to really muck up the good pattern for us. Not a forecast but something to keep your eye on.we got our Mojo workin Muddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 The concern though is real given the potential for the MJO to really muck up the good pattern for us. Not a forecast but something to keep your eye on. I don't think it will do much. Also after the first week, it looks to slow down west of the dateline. It may play around with the AK ridge, but that isn't going anywhere anytime soon IMO. I guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I'm just skeptical of how much NAO help we're going to get until we really destroy the Stratospheric Vortex. What forcing is there to keep the NAO negative for more than just the time it is being enhanced by the Xmas and following waves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 I'm just skeptical of how much NAO help we're going to get until we really destroy the Stratospheric Vortex. What forcing is there to keep the NAO negative for more than just the time it is being enhanced by the Xmas and following waves? Probably not much. That's why a strat warming would be nice. However , it's not like last year which iirc was very stout. It's also getting quite elongated and not concentric which may help limit a strong +AO. I'm not all that worried up this way since we can get away with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.