SR Airglow Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Nice name Figured you'd get it, instant favorite from the first time I skied it. Long, good pitch, and has character instead of being a straight shot down. Can only imagine how great it is on a pow day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 I think we have to wait until the big storm for Christmas for the models to grasp where the pattern is headed. No doubt a change is coming up but there are going to be violent model swings until that storm moves up into Canada. I We all know where it is heading. The day to day specifics are never known this far out, but there is no question where are in for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 3:00pm EST: Apparently the backup server also has problems. The 18z NAM is late, implying problems will continue until further notice. 18z GFS may fail to come in entirely. All depends on when NOAA fixes these data issues. I have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I'm resigned to a cutter on that. If it doesn't, gravy. very likely a cutter there, yeah. even the air mass xmas day is rather mediocre. still seems like we are looking at the last couple of days of the month, onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I have it. Yea its late transmitting . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 GFS parallel will be unavailable this weekend due to NCEP computer issues. FYI, while the NOAA public data center is malfunctioning, the actual models are not, and NOAA plots output here: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 GFS parallel will be unavailable this weekend due to NCEP computer issues. FYI, while the NOAA public data center is malfunctioning, the actual models are not, and NOAA plots output here: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ Steve, Check your messages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Steve, Check your messages. texted your phone Man that LR looks pretty damn potent, like Miller B look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 How are we doing. Someone update me. Are we still on for happy times long range? God love you kids, you keep me young. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 understatement Good grief, time to build an ark in the NH/ME. The one time I won't be worrying about QPF with the EURO having 24 hour totals of 0.75-1" here (not good either), but holy crap at the 3-4" totals near Wildcat, Sunday River, Sugarloaf. The EURO just rams like 400% of normal PWATs right into the foothills of Maine on a ridiculous low level jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Good grief, time to build an ark in the NH/ME. The one time I won't be worrying about QPF with the EURO having 24 hour totals of 0.75-1" here (not good either), but holy crap at the 3-4" totals near Wildcat, Sunday River, Sugarloaf. The EURO just rams like 400% of normal PWATs right into the foothills of Maine on a ridiculous low level jet. Bye bye Tamarack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Bye bye Tamarack. I have to think that's over-done...seems excessive but who knows. You can follow that plume of moisture all the way to the Caribbean, off the east coast, and curling into Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I have to think that's over-done...seems excessive but who knows. You can follow that plume of moisture all the way to the Caribbean, off the east coast, and curling into Maine. 18-24 inch depths , lot o water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 I have to think that's over-done...seems excessive but who knows. You can follow that plume of moisture all the way to the Caribbean, off the east coast, and curling into Maine. It wouldn't surprise me if they have one of those 4 -6 hr dumpings of rain. Textbook way to get a ton of rain with that LLJ against the high terrain. Not to mention overrunning the colder air below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 76-77 works, lets do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 It wouldn't surprise me if they have one of those 4 -6 hr dumpings of rain. Textbook way to get a ton of rain with that LLJ against the high terrain. Not to mention overrunning the colder air below. I was there in 02 when SR had 4-6 inches of rain, it was unbelievable the torrents of water, we took a ride through the White Mountains, the waterfalls were just spectacular. The Jackson Dam was opened to relieve pressure very impressive roar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 18-24 inch depths , lot o water Yeah, even here where there's only 10" of concrete, there's still like over 3" of QPF in my yard as the big cut-off low had sleet-like ratios in wet paste. I can't imagine what they have in those depths, 5-6"? The sad part is I know with that ripping SE H85 jet, locally near me will do better than modeled for QPF. Quite a bit of downsloping into the Champlain Valley on the EURO, like 0.4" instead of 1" here, but that means there's an east side upslope that works its way right up the spine. Its going to be a wet system. The snowpack is pretty firm and cold, with a couple inches of sandy snow on top. The layered effect may help soak some of this but from a ski area standpoint, its going to be all about the snowmaking after the system. Its not that cold behind it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I was there in 02 when SR had 4-6 inches of rain, it was unbelievable the torrents of water, we took a ride through the White Mountains, the waterfalls were just spectacular. The Jackson Dam was opened to relieve pressure very impressive roar. The water coming out of the mountains can be spectacular and powerful in a big thaw. The Whites have some awesome waterfalls...I bet that was pretty sweet to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yeah, even here where there's only 10" of concrete, there's still like over 3" of QPF in my yard as the big cut-off low had sleet-like ratios in wet paste. I can't imagine what they have in those depths, 5-6"? The sad part is I know with that ripping SE H85 jet, locally near me will do better than modeled for QPF. Quite a bit of downsloping into the Champlain Valley on the EURO, like 0.4" instead of 1" here, but that means there's an east side upslope that works its way right up the spine. Its going to be a wet system. The snowpack is pretty firm and cold, with a couple inches of sandy snow on top. The layered effect may help soak some of this but from a ski area standpoint, its going to be all about the snowmaking after the system. Its not that cold behind it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The water coming out of the mountains can be spectacular and powerful in a big thaw. The Whites have some awesome waterfalls...I bet that was pretty sweet to see. Amazingly the next day the skiing was superb. People don't understand how quickly good Mt Ops can recover, sure they lost natural trails but everything else firmed up overnight as the water drained out, a couple of inches of squalls and it was game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx14 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Amazingly the next day the skiing was superb. People don't understand how quickly good Mt Ops can recover, sure they lost natural trails but everything else firmed up overnight as the water drained out, a couple of inches of squalls and it was game on.It's a disaster for the ski resorts any way you slice it timing couldn't be worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I've been away for a day....someone tell me about the snow and cold at the end of the Euro ten days forecast.... Still chasing the wind? 8:15 PM Update: Taking a look back (as the page is utterly dead this night) it looks as if Coastal and ORH are still confident of a change (which I take is for colder snowier). Since they know what they're talking about and I'm devolving back to sarcastic mode... Guess I'll trust my betters and look forward to a change. In spite of AN temps and lack of snow, December has not been a catastrophe temp wise. It's not 2011 or 2006 or 1998... Might just turn out to be interesting after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 76-77 works, lets do this Wouldn't that be 77-78, since he's referencing December '77? I am too old to recall the blizzard of '78 so I shall need a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 It's a disaster for the ski resorts any way you slice it timing couldn't be worse I was at Killington in early April 09 (might have been 08 can't remember exactly) and it was in the 80s two days in a row. The mountain went from 100% to less then 10. You could watch trails disappear. It was in the mid 70s even at 4200'. Luckily was April. I think in this case the high water content cement pack will just runoff most of the rain with minimal damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Dude, it's mid December. If its still like this in a month, then we'll talk. Even then, late January to early March is a great time for winter weather. Chances diminish for sure, but we aren't out of the first quarter of a four quarter game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Entire mountain bases wiped out in rain and 55-60 dews? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Even then, late January to early March is a great time for winter weather. Chances diminish for sure, but we aren't out of the first quarter of a four quarter game Well, if we get to mid January and still haven't received snow, then ideas will likely needed to be adjusted, but I highly doubt that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I think the people antsy now will be smiling NYD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Entire mountain bases wiped out in rain and 55-60 dews?put away the holiday cheer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I think the people antsy now will be smiling NYD.year after year after year same old same old. See you Monday when the good JUJU will flow ala Jan 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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