SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I wouldn't say refutes it, but it's certainly taking the ens idea to a much greater extreme. Also, take it FWIW, but the new weeklies look to me to be AOA after the 5th or so and get very warm by the end of the run. They've been iffy so I wouldn't give it too much credit, but it's not what I wanted to see. The Pac jet is giving the models fits which is why they have been bad beyond day 5-6...its not likely but there is certainly a chance the QBO is going to overwhelm us and the ridge won't last long and the pattern breaks down fairly quickly by mid January...again ot a great chance, but its there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I didn't take that at all from the weeklies. I looked at them fairly quickly, but what I saw from it was a pattern that's got the mean trough to our west, signs of a SE ridge, and no real source for cold temps. Maybe I'm looking at an old run(WxBell likes to do that) or maybe I'm reading it wrong(Also possible), but I looked at the daily 850 anomalies(For the purposes of this post, I wouldn't trust them to make a forecast on, but it's more to show a point) and not a single day is BN from 1/5 on. It's not a godawful look, but it's not very good one either IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Who to believe?!!? I didn't take that at all from the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The euro is bad for ski country on 12/24. one day lol, get the feeling Long Island wX has no clue what NNE looks like right now in the mts nor does he understand that a rainer quickly followed by upslope means very little, at worst they lose a day. Helluva upslope signal too, bet some places end up with big net gains by Saturday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The euro is bad for ski country on 12/24. SR jackpot with over 3" of rain, and then there's a secondary max that gets the ADKS, the CPV sort of gets caught in between the two big areas of precip and has 0.5-1" but what good does that do us? Pray for a few inches of backside snows or it's going to be a miserable holiday week. Even 1" would go a long way in cleaning up after the mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Who to believe?!!? My best advice(And this goes for all) is to get a weatherbell account or another service which has ECMWF data and form a conclusion for yourself. We have incredible forecasters and meteorologists here and I learn a lot from reading what they have to say, but at the end of the day, it's always better to look at it yourself than to rely on someones interpretation of it. $20/month well spent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The pattern blows for the next 10 days, we have known this for about the last 20 days, yet angst exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The pattern blows for the next 10 days, we have known this for about the last 20 days, yet angst exists. Yeah I dont get why people are suddenly floored by the modeling today. I feel like its something thats been known for days. Why concern today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 There was some talk about upslope potential a few days ago but it's been quiet. Is this sucker gonna be followed by any upslope, or is that a far shot? My family is visiting from Italy from the 22-27 for skiing, wondering if we'll be skiing at all other than the 23rd... one day lol, get the feeling Long Island wX has no clue what NNE looks like right now in the mts nor does he understand that a rainer quickly followed by upslope means very little, at worst they lose a day. Helluva upslope signal too, bet some places end up with big net gains by Saturday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Look at the location of the height anomalies...those verify much better than looking for the blue shades on the 850 temp anomalies. If you have high height anomalies in western Canada and up into the arctic, even if they are "meh" over New England, that is still quite a bullish look for cold/snow chances. Knowing what to look for is half the battle in interpreting long range model guidance. There's a million products out there but if you are focusing on the wrong parameters, then you can end up with a more inaccurate idea of what might transpire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Look at the location of the height anomalies...those verify much better than looking for the blue shades on the 850 temp anomalies. If you have high height anomalies in western Canada and up into the arctic, even if they are "meh" over New England, that is still quite a bullish look for cold/snow chances. Knowing what to look for is half the battle in interpreting long range model guidance. There's a million products out there but if you are focusing on the wrong parameters, then you can end up with a more inaccurate idea of what might transpire. Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The Euro's evolution after the XMas event makes no sense...how in the freakin hell does a west based block that strong and a 960mb low escape that fast to allow the next system to cut? I ain't buying it...the models have been really bad past Day 6 so its probably not even worth discussing too in depth I was thinking the same thing but I know nothing. Just can't fathom it cutting with such a nice block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The pattern blows for the next 10 days, we have known this for about the last 45 days, yet angst exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Look at the location of the height anomalies...those verify much better than looking for the blue shades on the 850 temp anomalies. If you have high height anomalies in western Canada and up into the arctic, even if they are "meh" over New England, that is still quite a bullish look for cold/snow chances. Knowing what to look for is half the battle in interpreting long range model guidance. There's a million products out there but if you are focusing on the wrong parameters, then you can end up with a more inaccurate idea of what might transpire. Like I said, I was only using 850s to prove a point. I looked at the anomalies and while it's probably a better picture in reality than the 850mb anomalies would suggest, I didn't think it was overwhelmingly bullish. Then again, you don't need overwhelmingly bullish in January to see cold/snow, so maybe I'm reading too much into it, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The pattern blows for the next 10 days, we have known this for about the last 45 days, yet angst exists. LOL, Well, I though that the period from now through the end of the month looked better during Novemeber, but the change has been delayed. I was a bit too quick with that when I issued my outlook on Nov 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I was thinking the same thing but I know nothing. Just can't fathom it cutting with such a nice block. I think the problem is that the ULL from the Xmas bomb pulls the trough too far west and as a result of their not being enough spacing between the events for it to move back east, it has no choice but to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The pattern blows for the next 10 days, we have known this for about the last 20 days, yet angst exists. I'd say really only the next 7. That storm later next week may very well end up being more wintry with that HP placement..Plus there's snow coming Sunday and icing possible Monday nite/Tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Like I said, I was only using 850s to prove a point. I looked at the anomalies and while it's probably a better picture in reality than the 850mb anomalies would suggest, I didn't think it was overwhelmingly bullish. Then again, you don't need overwhelmingly bullish in January to see cold/snow, so maybe I'm reading too much into it, who knows. What point was that, though? I thought the weeklies looked fine, maybe a bit iffy week 4, but def through week 3 they looked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I'd say really only the next 7. That storm later next week may very well end up being more wintry with that HP placement..Plus there's snow coming Sunday and icing possible Monday nite/Tues I'm resigned to a cutter on that. If it doesn't, gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Seasonal models, even weeklies can have a warm bias. Like Will said, I always look at where the height anomalies are. That method has worked well. You wouldn't believe how warm the euro seasonal surface temps were like one or two months out last winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 My comment was quite facetious, My best advice(And this goes for all) is to get a weatherbell account or another service which has ECMWF data and form a conclusion for yourself. We have incredible forecasters and meteorologists here and I learn a lot from reading what they have to say, but at the end of the day, it's always better to look at it yourself than to rely on someones interpretation of it. $20/month well spent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 My comment was quite facetious, I'm aware of that, but took it as an opportunity to make a broader point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Looks like the EUROens continue the theme of muting the SE ridge compared to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Looks like the EUROens continue the theme of muting the SE ridge compared to the op. It did beyond day 10 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Didn't a lot of the systems last winter show up on models only a few days before the events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Didn't a lot of the systems last winter show up on models only a few days before the events? We had an abnormally high number of systems where models had a storm through D5, lost it, and then brought it back in the 36-60 hour timeframe, but in terms of a first appearance inside 72-96, I can't think of any off of the top of my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The euro is bad for ski country on 12/24. understatement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 3:00pm EST: Apparently the backup server also has problems. The 18z NAM is late, implying problems will continue until further notice. 18z GFS may fail to come in entirely. All depends on when NOAA fixes these data issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Looks like the EUROens continue the theme of muting the SE ridge compared to the op. Nice name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 It did beyond day 10 too. I think we have to wait until the big storm for Christmas for the models to grasp where the pattern is headed. No doubt a change is coming up but there are going to be violent model swings until that storm moves up into Canada. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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