Ending out December with a Potential Pattern Change

[powderfreak]

I was lifeless by the end of Jan 2013. Boy was I a beaten weenie by that point. I just got out of that beast of a man shed, that kept me locked up since 10/29/11.

[powderfreak]

If there is one thing about technology that sucks, it's that + busts filled with exuberance will not occur like they did even 10 yrs ago. Models are too good. They still can happen, but it is becoming less and less frequent.

That's the one thing I love here...you still never know what will happen. You can still get "surprise" warning level snows due to the mesoscale stuff that models will never truly resolve. Like 1-2" forecasts can and usually do once or twice a winter turn into 6"+ events. Heck we already had a couple back in November with those lake bands. You can still feel like a kid when the forecast for flurries turned into 4" and coming down hard.

Outside of meso-scale stuff, you're right that surprise snowstorms just don't happen except for the occasional far NW fronto band that turns a 1-3" forecast into 5-10" or something.

[CoastalWx]

And yet, you were still fairly optimistic for the pattern...as hard as that probably was after getting an 18 month long middle finger.

We've got people canceling January in here during a late December pattern change to more favorable. And people wonder why I was musing about the whining in here the other day.

 

Yeah that was a brutal stretch. Boy, I wouldn't wish that on anyone. It was nice seeing the pattern show improvement, and rather abruptly too iirc. But man what an awesome turnaround that continued through last winter. I remember saying so many times that after '10/'11 which buried me despite Cape Cod tracks, I was going to be dearly and boy did I ever. Complete 180. And then another complete 180 in Feb 2013. I know that's how it goes around here sometimes, but what a yo-yo of winter weather from Dec 2010 through March 2014.

[CoastalWx]

That's the one thing I love here...you still never know what will happen. You can still get "surprise" warning level snows due to the mesoscale stuff that models will never truly resolve. Like 1-2" forecasts can and usually do once or twice a winter turn into 6"+ events. Heck we already had a couple back in November with those lake bands. You can still feel like a kid when the forecast for flurries turned into 4" and coming down hard.

Outside of meso-scale stuff, you're right that surprise snowstorms just don't happen except for the occasional far NW fronto band that turns a 1-3" forecast into 5-10" or something.

 

Yeah you'll always have misplaced deformation bands or something, but the days of massive regionwide busts are over.

[CoastalWx]

And I am talking like 24 hrs out. Obviously Boxing Day, Jan 27 2011, March 2013 etc where models were wrong a couple of days out can still occur.

[ORH_wxman]

And I am talking like 24 hrs out. Obviously Boxing Day, Jan 27 2011, March 2013 etc where models were wrong a couple of days out can still occur.

1/27/11 was a pretty devastating model failure about 24 hours out...though we were able to catch the bust in the final 12 hours by nowcasting with RUC, satellite, etc.

Catching that in mid-afternoon saved my bacon too...as I rushed to call clients and warn them that we weren't getting a scraper of 2-4" anymore.

[JC-CT]

What an odd conversation this morning.

 

Of course seasonal totals are statistically lower than average when December is a dud...the Decembers were duds.

 

Most of December can now be written off as virtually snowless, so isn't it time to start looking at JFM totals after bad Decembers rather than seasonal totals if we want an indication of what lies ahead?

[CoastalWx]

1/27/11 was a pretty devastating model failure about 24 hours out...though we were able to catch the bust in the final 12 hours by nowcasting with RUC, satellite, etc.

Catching that in mid-afternoon saved my bacon too...as I rushed to call clients and warn them that we weren't getting a scraper of 2-4" anymore.

 

Yeah that was bad, but you know what I mean...those massive busts when you were younger that left you in awe. As models improve, those will become less and less frequent. That's a big reason why I started to like meteorology. Those busts are the ones you always remember. I still have yet to feel the adrenaline like I did on 3/31/97. Nobody really knew what the hell was going to happen. The 6pm newscast had OCMs scrambling to find words and explanations, but you knew they were thinking "holy sh*t". 

[CoastalWx]

LOL, that block is so strong that the third low sort of flies north and HP keeps lower level cold before the storm. Still may not matter in SNE, but could matter up north.

[Ginx snewx]

What an odd conversation this morning.

 

Of course seasonal totals are statistically lower than average when December is a dud...the Decembers were duds.

 

Most of December can now be written off as virtually snowless, so isn't it time to start looking at JFM totals after bad Decembers rather than seasonal totals if we want an indication of what lies ahead?

that was not Ryans point, his point was a bad Dec under 1 inch  all ended up with a very poor Jan -March

[SR Airglow]

Todays 12z EURO showed how this pattern could fail to produce, big SE ridge and as a result it's cutter city and we torch for most of the run, only at the very end are there signs of cold arriving and at that point we're just about into January. It's on it's own right now, but don't like that it's been locked into that idea for several runs.

 

We'll see what the ens say.

[CoastalWx]

That storm was gonna cut anyway. That block slows it down. Whether it's 12/27 or 12/29 means little.

[CoastalWx]

The whole country is in the freezer.

[CoastalWx]

In the grand scheme of things, it means nothing really. Don't sweat it skisheep. It doesn't mean anything baaaaaaaahhhhhhhd.

[ORH_wxman]

Todays 12z EURO showed how this pattern could fail to produce, big SE ridge and as a result it's cutter city and we torch for most of the run, only at the very end are there signs of cold arriving and at that point we're just about into January. It's on it's own right now, but don't like that it's been locked into that idea for several runs.

 

We'll see what the ens say.

12/27 was precarious to begin with, it had a low probability of being cold enough, but it's not a shock it cuts...it's really the period from 12/29-onward we have seen great things on the ensembles.

The SE ridge is in intial response to the digging EPO trough in the central U.S. It doesn't stay like that though.

[Damage In Tolland]

Todays 12z EURO showed how this pattern could fail to produce, big SE ridge and as a result it's cutter city and we torch for most of the run, only at the very end are there signs of cold arriving and at that point we're just about into January. It's on it's own right now, but don't like that it's been locked into that idea for several runs.

We'll see what the ens say.

Lol what? Look at the cold high to our North. That would introduce ice chances at the very least with snow in NNE. That's not a torch at all.chances are it goes west, but it won't be a warm cutter for sure

[40/70 Benchmark]

In the grand scheme of things, it means nothing really. Don't sweat it skisheep. It doesn't mean anything baaaaaaaahhhhhhhd.

Terrible.

[SR Airglow]

In the grand scheme of things, it means nothing really. Don't sweat it skisheep. It doesn't mean anything baaaaaaaahhhhhhhd.

Verbatim I suppose it's OK after about the 29th or so, but I don't like it building the SE ridge more and more each run. I do like the CAD look to it for the cutter though and wouldn't write it off for NNE to see some snow out of that.

 

The whole country is in the freezer.

After the cutter, yes, but that's now D9. It's not a horrible look, but I'd much rather see something like the GFS/GEFS try to do. We'll see what the ensembles say, they've been much more muted with the SE ridge than the op has been, hopefully that continues.

[Ginx snewx]

The whole country is in the freezer.

if we only could have mustered up the big snowstorm, my final 3 weeks of my 8 week issued Nov 3rd  could have verified nicely.

 

Week of 12/20/14

Much warmer, Grinch week ,cutter a temporary pattern flip

 

Week of 12/27/14

Huge snowstorm, entire country frigid -4/-7

 

Week of 1/4/15

much much below normal extreme cold and dry - 6 /-8 Epic LES

[SR Airglow]

Lol what? Look at the cold high to our North. That would introduce ice chances at the very least with snow in NNE. That's not a torch at all.chances are it goes west, but it won't be a warm cutter for sure

Verbatim, the period between Christmas and the cutter is very warm, take it for what you will.

 

12/27 was precarious to begin with, it had a low probability of being cold enough, but it's not a shock it cuts...it's really the period from 12/29-onward we have seen great things on the ensembles.

The SE ridge is in intial response to the digging EPO trough in the central U.S. It doesn't stay like that though.

That is very true and it gives me hope that the op is on crack somewhat with how much it's trying to pump up the ridge. 

 

I'll be skiing from the 27th to the 5th, and I think we'll end that period with a much better pattern than we started it with. 

[Ginx snewx]

In the grand scheme of things, it means nothing really. Don't sweat it skisheep. It doesn't mean anything baaaaaaaahhhhhhhd.

I want to see the grand scheme you always refer too, is it online?

[ORH_wxman]

Verbatim, the period between Christmas and the cutter is very warm, take it for what you will.

 

That is very true and it gives me hope that the op is on crack somewhat with how much it's trying to pump up the ridge. 

 

I'll be skiing from the 27th to the 5th, and I think we'll end that period with a much better pattern than we started it with.

I guess I just don't see how the OP run really refutes the ensembles for the said time period...the OP run basically stops at 12/29...the concern around 12/27 is kind of a red herring to me.

[LongIslandWx14]

Awful euro run going to destroy Xmas week for ski country

[SnowGoose69]

Todays 12z EURO showed how this pattern could fail to produce, big SE ridge and as a result it's cutter city and we torch for most of the run, only at the very end are there signs of cold arriving and at that point we're just about into January. It's on it's own right now, but don't like that it's been locked into that idea for several runs.

 

We'll see what the ens say.

 

The Euro's evolution after the XMas event makes no sense...how in the freakin hell does a west based block that strong and a 960mb low escape that fast to allow the next system to cut?  I ain't buying it...the models have been really bad past Day 6 so its probably not even worth discussing too in depth

[SR Airglow]

I guess I just don't see how the OP run really refutes the ensembles for the said time period...the OP run basically stops at 12/29...the concern around 12/27 is kind of a red herring to me.

I wouldn't say refutes it, but it's certainly taking the ens idea to a much greater extreme. 

 

Also, take it FWIW, but the new weeklies look to me to be AOA after the 5th or so and get very warm by the end of the run. They've been iffy so I wouldn't give it too much credit, but it's not what I wanted to see. 

[CoastalWx]

I love how we get so concerned about a day 9 prog. Like the euro never likes to dig and hang things around too long.

[CoastalWx]

I wouldn't say refutes it, but it's certainly taking the ens idea to a much greater extreme.

Also, take it FWIW, but the new weeklies look to me to be AOA after the 5th or so and get very warm by the end of the run. They've been iffy so I wouldn't give it too much credit, but it's not what I wanted to see.

I didn't take that at all from the weeklies.

[Ginx snewx]

Awful euro run going to destroy Xmas week for ski country

 

Awful euro run going to destroy Xmas week for ski country

no

[CoastalWx]

The Euro's evolution after the XMas event makes no sense...how in the freakin hell does a west based block that strong and a 960mb low escape that fast to allow the next system to cut? I ain't buying it...the models have been really bad past Day 6 so its probably not even worth discussing too in depth

I buy the 12/27 event cutting. That probably will happen. The models all show that trough carving deep into the plains. Classic response to the Ak ridge building at first. He seems all worried about a SE ridge into January.

[CoastalWx]

The euro is bad for ski country on 12/24.