CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 oh I agree. You are definitely testing your luck if that happens. I was kind of just giving another example of how its not impossible. You need Jan to contribute or like you said, you are banking on a historic feb-march period. I think we will have our fair share of chances in Jan. Obviously, nobody knows how that will shake out snow wise in the end. You weren't around for '02-'03...or maybe perhaps don't recall it too much. Very frustrating on the CP until 2/7. We did have a nice event in early December and obviously the snow on the night before Thanksgiving, but after Christmas is started to look like a classic interior winter.The snowpack really built up N and W of 128. Then the mother of all fluff jobs came on 2/7 ans dropped about 16-17" right where I am now. About 14 down in Marshfield where I lived back then. PDII and then 3/6 all hit the area hard. Looking back though, it was the most solid winter I can remember. Snow events from November through April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The pattern looks to be one that could deliver. It's not the crappy looking pattern like this DEC was always supposed to be until the flip. If we miss out in JAN, then it's just bad luck. However, with what the pattern looks like now, it will take EXTRA bad luck to not deliver at least some decent events. I'm still standing by my 20-30" call for KBos for January. Probably good for starters. I'd be shocked if we continued with the trend of bad luck after last March and this December....usually that stuff evens out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Mentioned this yesterday re the scheduled Phase 3 MJO, and how the NP is falling out of phase/entering deconstructive wave interference mode with the negative WPO-EPO arc. The wave may be prone to busting too strong... Now, the GFS hi res shows it being muted, so this appears on track Why that is important is because the Phase of the MJO may not be as effective on the circulation/forcing as if/when the mode of the Pacific is in constructive wave interference. In other words, whatever the Phase 3-5 correlation is, we likely verify poorly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 You weren't around for '02-'03...or maybe perhaps don't recall it too much. Very frustrating on the CP until 2/7. We did have a nice event in early December and obviously the snow on the night before Thanksgiving, but after Christmas is started to look like a classic interior winter.The snowpack really built up N and W of 128. Then the mother of all fluff jobs came on 2/7 ans dropped about 16-17" right where I am now. About 14 down in Marshfield where I lived back then. PDII and then 3/6 all hit the area hard. Looking back though, it was the most solid winter I can remember. Snow events from November through April. I remember that one well. We went to school (7th grade!!!) with a 3-6" forecast. During the day, you knew it was busting since the visibility was a 1/4 mile with fluffy cotton ball flakes. I think we got 10-11" in Woburn. The jackpot was by you over to about Carver, IIRC. Edit: Man, my post just sounded like one of Jerry's from when he reminisces about his grade school days from the 1960s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Probably good for starters. I'd be shocked if we continued with the trend of bad luck after last March and this December....usually that stuff evens out. That it does. It's like the "luck" fairy switched it up around mid-February last year. Then it switched from SNE to NNE for last March/April and this Nov/Dec.Climo always wins in the end. Or those bookend months just favor us up north more, haha, who knows. January is historically SNE's prime month so that's a good starting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 You weren't around for '02-'03...or maybe perhaps don't recall it too much. Very frustrating on the CP until 2/7. We did have a nice event in early December and obviously the snow on the night before Thanksgiving, but after Christmas is started to look like a classic interior winter.The snowpack really built up N and W of 128. Then the mother of all fluff jobs came on 2/7 ans dropped about 16-17" right where I am now. About 14 down in Marshfield where I lived back then. PDII and then 3/6 all hit the area hard. Looking back though, it was the most solid winter I can remember. Snow events from November through April. I remember PDII lol, but not much else from that winter. It can flip quick, especially on the CP where deficits can be made up quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I remember that one well. We went to school (7th grade!!!) with a 3-6" forecast. During the day, you knew it was busting since the visibility was a 1/4 mile with fluffy cotton ball flakes. I think we got 10-11" in Woburn. The jackpot was by you over to about Carver, IIRC. Edit: Man, my post just sounded like one of Jerry's from when he reminisces about his grade school days from the 1960s! That 3/7/03 event is scooter's favorite....real fetish. That one is his g-spot. I was in the Carolinas during my time in the Marine corps for that one, so missed it, but I remember watching the TWC and seeing that they got like 1' at home. Flew home for PD II, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Mentioned this yesterday re the scheduled Phase 3 MJO, and how the NP is falling out of phase/entering deconstructive wave interference mode with the negative WPO-EPO arc. The wave may be prone to busting too strong... Now, the GFS hi res shows it being muted, so this appears on track Why that is important is because the Phase of the MJO may not be as effective on the circulation/forcing as if/when the mode of the Pacific is in constructive wave interference. In other words, whatever the Phase 3-5 correlation is, we likely verify poorly. Mike V was saying something similar. It may act to retro the AK ridge, but then the forcing will probably continue to meander east and try to raise heights near the west coast. At least that's what I could envision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 That 3/7/03 event is scooter's favorite....real fetish. That one is his g-spot. I was in the Carolinas during my time in the Marine corps for that one, so missed it, but I remember watching the TWC and seeing that they got like 1' at home. Flew home for PD II, though. It was actually 2/7. Because 3-5" forecast got tripled lol. It was also the first real time I can remember less than 1/4 vis in dendrites with little wind. 3/6 was an awesome bust too. That had TSSN. I remember coming home from Lowell both times. Left Lowell with -SN and got to 128 and was really coming down good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 It was actually 2/7. Because 3-5" forecast got tripled lol. It was also the first real time I can remember less than 1/4 vis in dendrites with little wind. 3/6 was an awesome bust too. That had TSSN. I remember coming home from Lowell both times. Left Lowell with -SN and got to 128 and was really coming down good. Did you work in Lowell, then? My friends had in apt in Lowell back then....ultimate party spot. Too bad that I didn't know you yet...complete, and utter debauchery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 It was actually 2/7. Because 3-5" forecast got tripled lol. It was also the first real time I can remember less than 1/4 vis in dendrites with little wind. 3/6 was an awesome bust too. That had TSSN. I remember coming home from Lowell both times. Left Lowell with -SN and got to 128 and was really coming down good. Exactly! I agree. Maybe this January will deliver something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 If there is one thing about technology that sucks, it's that + busts filled with exuberance will not occur like they did even 10 yrs ago. Models are too good. They still can happen, but it is becoming less and less frequent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Did you work in Lowell, then? My friends had in apt in Lowell back then....ultimate party spot. Too bad that I didn't know you yet...complete, and utter debauchery. No, I was at UML. Probably a good thing we didn't know each other..lol. I was commuting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 What do you expect from SnowNH's Dad? Seriously? I always thought SnowNH actually knew a decent amount of meteorology, but was godawful at communicating it and let his inner weenie take over in a big way. I've got to say, my favorite events aren't always the big ones, but the moderate ones that were supposed to be very little and were nice positive busts. 3/8/13 was a nice example of that I think, 10" IMBY off a 2-4" forecast and lots of folks in NE did 12"+ from that off much lower consensus forecasts. Canadian guidance and the NAM nailed that event, was what got me to start looking at the RGEM more seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 That winter late December and a few weeks of late January were warm. There was some powerful cold, and some nice storms but they didn't coincide. The sensible weather unfortunately has totally traced that year, starting with the cool washout of a summer, thrugh a cold November, to a blah December. That summer was wet. This summer was on the drier side. That summer was chilly. This summer was normal. I believe any other comparison is pure dumb luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 What do you expect from SnowNH's Dad? smh...Just saying we have all seen this before. Modeled storms 10 plus days out don't come to fruition or they cut. Yet posts are made about the coming pattern change...but still nothing happens. We are quickly running out of time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 smh...Just saying we have all seen this before. Modeled storms 10 plus days out don't come to fruition or they cut. Yet posts are made about the coming pattern change...but still nothing happens. We are quickly running out of time... I would argue greatly against the fact that nothing is happening. We're already starting to see the NAO and EPO tank, and by Christmas they have both likely gone negative. Furthermore, by hour 168(Hardly fantasy land when you're talking large scale pattern) or so on the GEFS, you already have blocking building, and the AO tanks around that time as well. Again, what comes of it remains to be seen, but things are happening. Many of our events don't even show up on the models until we're inside 5-7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 No, I was at UML. Probably a good thing we didn't know each other..lol. I was commuting though. lol I went there after I wrapped up the corps. Man, you would have camped out there after class...booze, women, pong...complete party house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 smh...Just saying we have all seen this before. Modeled storms 10 plus days out don't come to fruition or they cut. Yet posts are made about the coming pattern change...but still nothing happens. We are quickly running out of time... I hope people are keeping their expectations in check regarding a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 smh...Just saying we have all seen this before. Modeled storms 10 plus days out don't come to fruition or they cut. Yet posts are made about the coming pattern change...but still nothing happens. We are quickly running out of time... It's 12/19..the clock is ticking! You have to be kidding me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Boy if there is one thing to lock in, it's the typical whiners and complainers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I hope people are keeping their expectations in check regarding a pattern change. I am....Ray better start trying on dandelions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I am....Ray better start trying on dandelions... Dude, it's mid December. If its still like this in a month, then we'll talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I am....Ray better start trying on dandelions... Even your son, SnowNH, wasn't this unreasonable. He was just actually a ridiculous weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 It's not even winter yet, relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 This is just how people were complaining in January 2013 when the pattern was clearly flipping....they complained before the pattern even swtiched, and then they complained some more when they didn't get a HECS in the first week...if only they had waited another 10 days and they would have spared themselves the embarrassment of jumping for joy in the Feb 2013 blizzard after they had already cancelled winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 It's 12/19..the clock is ticking! You have to be kidding me. Winter cancel. First round of golf is mere hours away. 2930 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Cold today.29.7 and cloudy ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 I was lifeless by the end of Jan 2013. Boy was I a beaten weenie by that point. I just got out of that beast of a man shed, that kept me locked up since 10/29/11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I was lifeless by the end of Jan 2013. Boy was I a beaten weenie by that point. I just got out of that beast of a man shed, that kept me locked up since 10/29/11. And yet, you were still fairly optimistic for the pattern...as hard as that probably was after getting an 18 month long middle finger. We've got people canceling January in here during a late December pattern change to more favorable. And people wonder why I was musing about the whining in here the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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