ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Fact not belief. I'll concede equal on snow, but everything else not even close I think most people like snow during the holiday season a lot better...we just like to tout how realistic it is to have snowpack all month in December. It's hard to do. White Christmas is a decent shot...about 65% at ORH historically...but sometimes we have to squeak that snow in right before Christmas, it's not like it was sitting OTG for 2-3 weeks leading up to it...and other times we have to endure a Grinch storm to survive with a crusty pack like in 2007 and 2008. So while its awesome to have snow falling every few days during the holiday season, it's not all that likely to happen...and if you want a big storm? You are better off in March...which should tell you something about expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I think most people like snow during the holiday season a lot better...we just like to tout how realistic it is to have snowpack all month in December. It's hard to do. White Christmas is a decent shot...about 65% at ORH historically...but sometimes we have to squeak that snow in right before Christmas, it's not like it was sitting OTG for 2-3 weeks leading up to it...and other times we have to endure a Grinch storm to survive with a crusty pack like in 2007 and 2008. So while its awesome to have snow falling every few days during the holiday season, it's not all that likely to happen...and if you want a big storm? You are better off in March...which should tell you something about expectations. Well I really just want snow. Any snow. I think most of us on here share that mentality and dont need the "big one" or a huge events. Just give us 1-3 inch events every few days , keep it cold enough to keep it OTG and sprinkle in a 3-6 or 4-8 here and there. That would be perfect . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 NY event is gone with the wind on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Well I really just want snow. Any snow. I think most of us on here share that mentality and dont need the "big one" or a huge events. Just give us 1-3 inch events every few days , keep it cold enough to keep it OTG and sprinkle in a 3-6 or 4-8 here and there. That would be perfect . Remember when you were saying November was more of a winter month than March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Well I really just want snow. Any snow. I think most of us on here share that mentality and dont need the "big one" or a huge events. Just give us 1-3 inch events every few days , keep it cold enough to keep it OTG and sprinkle in a 3-6 or 4-8 here and there. That would be perfect . Sounds awfully boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Well I really just want snow. Any snow. I think most of us on here share that mentality and dont need the "big one" or a huge events. Just give us 1-3 inch events every few days , keep it cold enough to keep it OTG and sprinkle in a 3-6 or 4-8 here and there. That would be perfect . that was the beauty of 93-94...while not all snow, there were almost no all rain events to wash it away and storms every few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 that was the beauty of 93-94...while not all snow, there were almost no all rain events to wash it away and storms every few days We had almost all rain until the last week of December, then another big cutter that front ended us in January. It got very mild, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Well I really just want snow. Any snow. I think most of us on here share that mentality and dont need the "big one" or a huge events. Just give us 1-3 inch events every few days , keep it cold enough to keep it OTG and sprinkle in a 3-6 or 4-8 here and there. That would be perfect . That's great if we lived in Barrow AK. Unfortunately, it's a good recipe for bare ground. You need larger events to sustain snowpack around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 that was the beauty of 93-94...while not all snow, there were almost no all rain events to wash it away and storms every few days That's not true. '93-'94 had it's share of rainers and also thaws...it was just brutally cold and also had a lot of snow/ice events to go with it. But look up Jan 17-18 and Jan 28...two big rainers right in the middle of the cold/snow onslaught. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 I'll take the GFS look though, Ray. That would work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 With any luck we pull a 76-77 deep winter from late Dec almost to the end of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 That's great if we lived in Barrow AK. Unfortunately, it's a good recipe for bare ground. You need larger events to sustain snowpack around here. Sure beats tossing December hoping an epic 6 week period works out before spring hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Will be interesting when a month from now we will be hoping that February brings goods after January fails to do so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Sure beats tossing December hoping an epic 6 week period works out before spring hits I never expect 80" in 6 weeks. However, your idea is not realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 That's not true. '93-'94 had it's share of rainers and also thaws...it was just brutally cold and also had a lot of snow/ice events to go with it. But look up Jan 17-18 and Jan 28...two big rainers right in the middle of the cold/snow onslaught. Yes exactly. While it was a great season, it did have it's warm spells and rain that I remember well. And I disagree with a bunch of small lil events...those are just boring and rediculous without a Major Storm thrown in there a few times per winter. Just my opinion though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I'll take the GFS look though, Ray. That would work. I was just commenting on the run verbatim...nothing more. No complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Will be interesting when a month from now we will be hoping that February brings goods after January fails to do so... Well that is always a Possibility? Its weather man, there are no guarantees. However that shouldn't be the case the way it is appearing at the moment. Maybe some people should stop hoping/pining for an Epic Winter/6 week stretch? If that's what happens, Great. But those are exceptions. I think we will get winter, it just probably won't be Epic...which is just fine. We will all enjoy it no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I was just commenting on the run verbatim...nothing more. No complaints. That's a great pattern on the GFS...active with plenty of cold. Textbook for several larger threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 That's not true. '93-'94 had it's share of rainers and also thaws...it was just brutally cold and also had a lot of snow/ice events to go with it. But look up Jan 17-18 and Jan 28...two big rainers right in the middle of the cold/snow onslaught. fair enough. It's funny how memory erases the rainers....that year just seemed like constant snow/ice events. (after about 12/28 or so) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Will be interesting when a month from now we will be hoping that February brings goods after January fails to do so... if that's the case, we can call off the dogs...outside of the rare winter like 06-07, if we don't get the goods by 2/1 we're not likely too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 if that's the case, we can call off the dogs...outside of the rare winter like 06-07, if we don't get the goods by 2/1 we're not likely too... 12/13 didnt really see a substantial snow until the blizzard. Some places got like 60 inches from 2/7 on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Will be interesting when a month from now we will be hoping that February brings goods after January fails to do so... What meteorology whatsoever supports this idea? Come on, sure maybe January isn't a blockbuster, but I see absolutely nothing in the long range that makes me think we won't see some chances in January. To end up with nothing is always possible, but would take an enormous run of bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 12/13 didnt really see a substantial snow until the blizzard. Some places got like 60 inches from 2/7 on Yep areas outside of the interior had less than 10 inches going into February that year...it's rare but a Nino-esque pattern can sometimes be like that. 2012-2013 was a very Nino-ish winter (the autumn had spiked up near weak Nino before rapidly fading). That said, it's not always wise to count on getting an epic February to save winter. Hopefully January contributes quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 It's REALLY not asking much to at least keep the ground covered with something for most of December. Like Kevin stated, just an inch, or even less is all we're asking. This month, although the temps have "averaged" normal, has really been an aberration since there hasn't even been a chance for a plowable snow all month. I put this December along with the December '06, etc. in terms of wintry appeal. Climo says it is difficult. Many of you have recent Decembers to pollute your mind. Welcome back lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 What meteorology whatsoever supports this idea? Come on, sure maybe January isn't a blockbuster, but I see absolutely nothing in the long range that makes me think we won't see some chances in January. To end up with nothing is always possible, but would take an enormous run of bad luck. If I don't get at least 20" in January, I'll show up to a Spring get together wearing nothing but a dandelion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 What meteorology whatsoever supports this idea? Come on, sure maybe January isn't a blockbuster, but I see absolutely nothing in the long range that makes me think we won't see some chances in January. To end up with nothing is always possible, but would take an enormous run of bad luck. What do you expect from SnowNH's Dad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 I was just commenting on the run verbatim...nothing more. No complaints. I wasn't trying to disagree or anything, just noting the look. All good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 If I don't get at least 20" in January, I'll show up to a Spring get together wearing nothing but a dandelion. Hopefully Suslak is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yep areas outside of the interior had less than 10 inches going into February that year...it's rare but a Nino-esque pattern can sometimes be like that. 2012-2013 was a very Nino-ish winter (the autumn had spiked up near weak Nino before rapidly fading). That said, it's not always wise to count on getting an epic February to save winter. Hopefully January contributes quite a bit. oh I agree. You are definitely testing your luck if that happens. I was kind of just giving another example of how its not impossible. You need Jan to contribute or like you said, you are banking on a historic feb-march period. I think we will have our fair share of chances in Jan. Obviously, nobody knows how that will shake out snow wise in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 If I don't get at least 20" in January, I'll show up to a Spring get together wearing nothing but a dandelion. The pattern looks to be one that could deliver. It's not the crappy looking pattern like this DEC was always supposed to be until the flip. If we miss out in JAN, then it's just bad luck. However, with what the pattern looks like now, it will take EXTRA bad luck to not deliver at least some decent events. I'm still standing by my 20-30" call for KBos for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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